TORONTO — This is the kind of start R.A. Dickey envisioned when he first arrived in Toronto, and the kind of start the Blue Jays hoped he would have to make.
Dickey will make the first home playoff start of his career Tuesday in front of a sold out Rogers Centre with the chance to even the ALCS 2-2.
He intends to employ a simple strategy: pitch to contact. He knows the Kansas City Royals struck out and walked less than any American League team this year. That means inviting balls in play whenever possible.
“This is going to sound paradoxical, but it’s important for me to always be pitching to contact,” Dickey said. “And that means I need to be relentless throwing strikes with it.
“I think it’s important for me to take a shot or two out of the strike zone, but the great thing and the beauty about a knuckleball is that it can be in the strike zone and be just as effective as out of the strike zone, because it moves so chaotically, so late.”
Pitching to contact is nothing new to Dickey, whose strikeout rate of 5.3 per nine innings ranked 76th among 78 qualified starters in 2015. Thankfully, the Blue Jays support him with an above-average defence anchored by the likes of Kevin Pillar, Ryan Goins and Troy Tulowitzki.
It’s a formula that works for Dickey, who posted a 2.78 ERA during his final 16 regular season starts. The strong finish earned him a playoff start against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, the first post-season outing of his career. Manager John Gibbons removed him after just 4.2 innings of one-run ball, explaining that the decision had more to do with the circumstances of the game (a must-win contest in which David Price was available out of the bullpen) than his confidence in Dickey.
The Blue Jays need another strong performance Tuesday.
“He’s done a tremendous job for us since we acquired him,” Gibbons said. “ Doesn’t matter who he’s facing when he’s on, he’s going to be tough.”
It’s a dramatically different look from Game 3 starter Marcus Stroman, who will regularly reach 94 mph, or Game 5 starter Marco Estrada, whose best pitch is a change-up.
“It does change your approach, it’s shown in the past that guys that follow him the next day there can be a little lull on the other side,” Gibbons said. “No guarantees, but we’ve seen a little bit of that.”
Still, relying on a knuckleball in the course of a six-month season is one thing. Depending on the pitch in a high-stakes game requires another type of confidence. Even those who work with the pitch for a living don’t necessarily know where it’ll end up.
“It’s a very unpredictable pitch — so unpredictable he doesn’t know where it’s going,” said Josh Thole, who has caught Dickey more than anyone else. “Even when he tries to do something with it and manipulate it, it’s not always accurate.”
Thole, who will warm Dickey up in the bullpen Tuesday, says he can tell extremely early whether the knuckler is working. “You recognize that within the first one or two hitters,” Thole said.
While the Blue Jays are hoping for the best, the Royals are preparing for the worst.
“We don’t expect him to be flat. We expect him to be tough,” manager Ned Yost said. “You just really don’t know what it’s going to do from pitch to pitch. You try to see it and hit it.”
Dickey faced Kansas City once this season, pitching seven scoreless innings at Rogers Centre on Aug. 2. He struck out six while allowing just two hits in what would end up being one of his best outings of the year.
If the 40-year-old can replicate that success in Game 4, the Blue Jays’ chances of advancing beyond the ALCS will start to look pretty good. And if you really want to dream, how about the possibility of facing his former team, the New York Mets, and the top young pitcher he was traded for.
“What a script that would be if I could face (Noah) Syndergaard in Game 7. Wouldn’t that be something?” Dickey said. “When I was a Met, I loved being a Met. I’m hoping that we play those guys in the World Series. It would certainly make for a great narrative.”
That’s still a ways off, but in the meantime Dickey can do the next-best thing and push the Blue Jays a little closer to that storybook ending.