Blue Jays FAQ: Should Aaron Sanchez remain in the rotation?

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez. (Fred Thornhill/CP)

Sportsnet 590 the FAN’s Mike Wilner sat down to answer all your most burning Toronto Blue Jays questions.

Below is a selection of some of the questions Wilner answered. Check back tomorrow for Part 2 of the FAQ.

Q: Aaron Sanchez is having a great year, shouldn’t the Blue Jays keep him in the starting rotation?

A: No they shouldn’t, and it has nothing to do with Sanchez’s performance. The idea behind eventually moving Sanchez to the bullpen has everything to do with the health of his arm in the future, as opposed to how well he is or isn’t pitching.

The ideal outcome for Sanchez this season, as far as the Blue Jays are concerned, would be for him to have a dominant four months or so out of the rotation and then a dominant 2-3 months out of the bullpen. So far, the first part has happened.

Yes, there’s no science that says this is exactly how to avoid a catastrophic arm injury, but there is data that says avoiding major increases in innings pitched cuts down the risk of such an injury dramatically.

An article published by Baseball Prospectus in 2014 suggested that adding 40 innings pitched in a pitcher’s age-24 season increases the risk of next-season injury by 50 per cent. That study included a population of all big-league pitchers, as opposed to just the ones who throw 95 mph or harder like Sanchez. The hard throwers appear, anecdotally, to break down more often.

Sanchez is 24. If he stays in the rotation he’s on pace to surpass his previous career high in innings pitched by 70, and that doesn’t count a potential playoff run, which could increase that number to 100.

Q: Should the Blue Jays move to a six-man rotation to cut down Sanchez’s innings and keep him in the rotation longer?

A: No, they shouldn’t. The Blue Jays might have the best starting rotation in the AL this season, ranking first in quality starts, innings pitched and opponents’ batting average, and second in ERA and WHIP. It seems counter-intuitive, at best, to have every member of that great rotation pitch less often so that one of them can stay in the rotation longer, but not to throw more innings.

If there is a number of innings pitched that determines when Sanchez gets moved to the bullpen, how does it serve the Blue Jays better to have him reach that number over a longer period of time?

And why on Earth would anyone (other than the Jays’ opponents) want Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey to be pitching every sixth day instead of every fifth?

Q: Why is the bullpen better for Sanchez? Aren’t those innings all high-stress, and isn’t his routine disrupted?

A: The bullpen is a better solution simply because there are many fewer innings in which Sanchez would be pitching. Those innings might all be high-leverage, but they won’t all necessarily be high-stress.

We’ve seen Sanchez have breezy 9-13 pitch innings out of the bullpen in big spots before. If Sanchez stays in the rotation and throws another 70 innings some of them will be high-leverage, some will be high-stress and some will be both. But as far as total innings go, he’ll throw less than half as a reliever than he would as a starter, with zero chance of a high-pitch count outing, all of which adds up to less stress on the elbow.

Yes, Sanchez would be moving out of the routine he’s been in all season, but it’s not a move he’s unfamiliar with. He has transitioned from a starter to a reliever in July of each of the last two seasons, and has done it very, very successfully.

Q: Why are the Blue Jays watching Sanchez’s innings and not Stroman’s who is also young?

A: Stroman may also be a young man but the major difference is that his career high in innings pitched is much higher than Sanchez’s.

The Blue Jays drafted Sanchez out of high school in 2010 and thought that bringing him along slowly and carefully was the best way to keep him healthy. Sanchez threw just 25 innings in his first pro season, 54.1 in 2011 and 90.1 in 2012.

He had thrown 100.1 minor-league innings in 2014 when the Blue Jays called him up in July to work out of the bullpen, so he lost about six weeks of starting in the minors and wound up with 133.1 total innings pitched, which is his career high.

It should be noted that the Jays used the same deliberate strategy in developing Noah Syndergaard, with the New York Mets increasing his innings gradually, as well. Thor’s career high in innings pitched going into last season was 133, and in 2015 he pitched 198.2 innings, including playoffs. He’s now having elbow problems.

As for Stroman, he was drafted out of college, so he was on a very different track. Stroman threw 166.1 innings between Buffalo and Toronto in 2014 before missing almost all of last season with a knee injury, through which he was still able to throw and strengthen his arm. But it’s his career high in innings that shows why there’s not been a limit, floating or otherwise, placed on him this season.

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(Photo Credit: Matt York/AP)

Q: What are the Blue Jays’ biggest needs at the trade deadline? And how can they address them if the cupboard is bare?

A: The biggest need has to be starting pitching. The Blue Jays have been remarkably healthy in the rotation this season, with only Marco Estrada having missed any starts because of injury, and he only missed two. It’s difficult to imagine that the rotation can remain as healthy down the stretch as it has been so far, and the Blue Jays’ depth is not great.

Drew Hutchison belongs in a big-league rotation, and right now he’s the Blue Jays’ sixth starter, toiling away in Buffalo with the occasional sortie in the bigs. Beyond him, there’s really not much.

Canadians Scott Diamond and Chris Leroux are pitching well in the Bisons’ rotation and big-league relievers Jesse Chavez and potentially Joe Biagini could be stretched out to start if the Blue Jays get desperate.

Clearly, there’s a need there, and it’s bigger than the need in the bullpen, which will get a literal shot in the arm when Sanchez moves back from the starting five.

And while the Blue Jays’ prospect depth is not nearly as rich as it was a year ago, there’s plenty on the farm that other teams will want in order to get a trade done, be it a big one or a small one.

Q: Should the Blue Jays dangle Devon Travis as trade bait?

I’m biased here, because I love Travis and think that not only could he be a big piece of the Jays’ future, but that he could win a batting title or two someday. But the Blue Jays don’t have any tasty prospects at the higher levels of the minors, Travis has four years of control beyond this one, and Darwin Barney might be a thing.

Barney has been a revelation this season. The career .246/.294/.339 hitter coming into this season is currently batting .297/.349/.401 and, unlike Ezequiel Carrera, hasn’t wilted under extended increased playing time. Barney is hitting .333/.386/.462 in July after a terrific May was followed by a down June.

If the Blue Jays feel as though they can get by at second base with mostly Barney and some Ryan Goins for the rest of the year, and they can improve drastically by moving Travis then yes, he’s the one guy off the major-league roster that it makes sense to deal. Travis can bring far more back in trade than Barney and Goins combined.

But Travis should be considered as trade bait only in a scenario in which the Blue Jays would be acquiring a significant player who would be with the team beyond this season, not for a rental.

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