Jeff Moore is a former college player and Division I college coach who’s now based in Florida, where he scouts and writes about baseball.
The Dunedin Blue Jays began the season with the potential for one of the more talented rosters in minor league baseball, but some of the excitement never made it out of the starting blocks. Highly touted catching prospect Max Pentecost, who began testing out his surgically repaired throwing shoulder this spring, has yet to make it on the field and is now going on a year-and-a-half without competitive game action.
Making matters worse, top prospect Anthony Alford, whose breakout season last year was one of the best stories in all of the minor leagues, sustained a knee injury that cost him the better part of a month. Alford returned to the field Monday after regaining strength in extended spring.
That hardly leaves the Dunedin Jays without talent, however, and few are as physically gifted as shortstop Richard Urena. Talent has never been the question for Urena, but the application of that talent on the field has been a struggle for the 20-year-old at times.
“I don’t think the Blue Jays did him any favours bouncing him around last season,” a scout told me, referring to the mid-season promotion from Low-A Lansing to Dunedin and then his subsequent demotion after he struggled at the new level. “He’s so raw, especially with his approach at the plate, that he’s going to need a couple thousand minor league at-bats in order to tap into his abilities. They’re just going to have to be patient with him.”
Many of the same issues that plagued Urena after his promotion to Dunedin last year are still a part of his game during the early part of the 2016 season, particularly his over-aggressiveness at the plate. Still, it’s far too early to worry about his progress thus far. “He just needs at-bats, but with his talent, he’ll figure it out,” the same scout told me. “He’s still just a kid.”
Patience with talent is going to be a theme for the Blue Jays player development staff, and the same idea applies to their top pitching prospect, 21-year-old Connor Greene. The ace of the Dunedin Jays staff, Greene features a big league arsenal but nowhere near the polish.
“He’s got everything you could want from a starting pitching prospect at his age – the tall, projectable frame, the big arm and velocity,” another scout told me, “but he’s just figuring out how to use it all.” The right-hander has been sitting in the mid-90’s with his velocity early on this season, touching 97 mph at times. He complements it with a change-up that serves as his best secondary pitch and gives him the starting pitcher starter kit that scouts look for in pitching prospects.
“He needs to work on three things – fastball command within the strike zone, consistency with his change-up, and a more refined breaking ball,” said a scout who has seen him throw twice already this season. “The fastball command is the biggest and will help him miss more bats,” referencing his low strikeout totals on the season – just 4.2 K/9 thus far, well below what would be expected from a pitcher with his velocity.
Players like Greene and Urena have plenty of time to work out the developmental kinks in their games, but patience could be waning for a player like Emilio Guerrero. Often the source of frustration among scouts, Guerrero has a penchant for stringing together stretches of impressive play only to be followed by a head-scratcher.
“Guerrero is one of the more frustrating guys to watch in the minors because of the gap between his raw talent and his actual play,” a long-time Florida State League scout told me. “He’s been at this level forever but keeps making the same mistakes.”
Repetition of the same mistakes is often a major red flag among scouts, and it’s one of Guerrero’s biggest flaws, but at the same time, he offers enough to keep scouts coming back. A switch to third base has worked well for Guerrero, who has the skills to thrive there, and his background at shortstop and recent experience playing corner outfield spots give him the versatility teams like in their bench players. “The Blue Jays might run out of patience with him before he’s ready, and at 23 I’d like to have seen him make more progress these past few years, but there’s still a chance he helps a big league club on someone’s bench down the road.”
As with most minor league teams, patience will be the key for the Dunedin squad this season, but the talent level is high enough that the reward could be impressive for the big league club in a few years.
