Even if the Toronto Blue Jays could still technically win the American League East, common sense says the Boston Red Sox are winning the division. For the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, they’re more than likely looking at a wild-card berth.
As Blue Jays manager John Gibbons says, “It’s not what you shoot for, but it means you’ve got a chance.”
For now the Blue Jays remain focused on reaching the playoffs, but they’ve had at least some internal discussions about how a wild-card roster would look. The stakes are incredibly high with the winner advancing to the ALDS and the loser going home. As a result, teams need to make sure their rosters are ideally constructed for the winner-take-all contest (they can then re-set their rosters before the ALDS).
With some assistance from office executives who have experienced the play-in game first-hand, here’s a guide to building an ideal wild-card game roster…
BRING EXTRA STARTERS
If recent history offers any clues, we should expect teams to carry close to 10 pitchers, including two or three starters.
Team | Year | Total Pitchers | Starting Pitchers | Catchers | Infielders | Outfielders |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardinals | 2012 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
Braves | 2012 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
Orioles | 2012 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
Rangers | 2012 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
Pirates | 2013 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
Reds | 2013 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
Indians | 2013 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
Rays | 2013 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
Giants | 2014 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
Pirates | 2014 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Athletics | 2014 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 5 |
Royals | 2014 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
Cubs | 2015 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
Pirates | 2015 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
Yankees | 2015 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Astros | 2015 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 |
Average | 9.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 5.6 |
The urgency created by the winner-take-all format demands that managers operate differently than usual. To some extent these decisions depend on context — player tendencies, health and score, for instance — but some general principles apply.
Any starter this side of Clayton Kershaw should probably be pulled in the middle innings, at which point the matchup games begin. That means you want to be sure your manager has plenty of relief options.
There’s also the possibility that the game doesn’t go as planned. If your starter implodes early or takes a line drive off the shin, you need alternatives. National League teams may need to pinch-hit for their starter early in the game, creating additional scenarios where starting depth is needed. Throw in the possibility of extra innings, and there’s plenty of reason to carry at least three starters.
What it means for the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays may or may not have the luxury of lining up their preferred starter for the play-in game, but there’s a good chance Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ or Marco Estrada gets the ball. The other two could then earn consideration for bullpen roles depending on rest. Based on their skill sets, Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano also look like legitimate options for the bullpen, creating the possibility that the Blue Jays go heavier on starting pitching than most.
PREPARE FOR MATCHUPS
As for the rest of the bullpen, some relievers are obvious choices. For the Blue Jays, Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, Joaquin Benoit and Joe Biagini would seemingly be locks along with Brett Cecil.
To complement that core group, teams would ideally have specialists with skill sets suited to certain situations. The Cardinals can turn to Zach Duke if they need a double play, for example. The Giants can turn to Javier Lopez if they want to retire a left-handed hitter without burning Will Smith. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they don’t appear to have that depth beyond their top five, particularly from the left side.
What it means for the Blue Jays: On paper Aaron Loup could provide Gibbons with another lefty reliever, but the Blue Jays aren’t limited to the bullpen here. They could just as easily load up on starters like Liriano and Stroman and use them in relief roles.
BENCH SPECIALISTS ABOUND
Even if teams carry 10 pitchers, they have room for larger-than-usual benches. That means defensive specialists, pinch runners and third catchers all warrant serious consideration. From there, you want pinch hitters from both sides of the plate for late in the game.
Teams with lots of trust in their wild-card game starter might be more inclined to expand their benches even more.
What it means for the Blue Jays: Ryan Goins, Dalton Pompey and Josh Thole should earn consideration for bench spots along with presumed bench locks Dioner Navarro, Justin Smoak, Darwin Barney and Ezequiel Carrera.
PLAY TO YOUR STRENGTH
Ultimately, there’s no one way to build a wild-card roster. If you’ve got an abundance of great infielders, take them all. If you’ve got surplus left-handed relief, there’s probably room for everyone.
The reward for perfecting that wild-card roster? The ALDS begins two days after the wild-card game, so another round of roster decisions awaits.