The Toronto Blue Jays are in playoff position at the All-Star break for the first time since 1993, but plenty of intrigue surrounds the defending American League East champions as they prepare for the second half.
What happens with Aaron Sanchez? How does Ross Atkins approach his first trade deadline in Toronto? What to make of the rest of the American League? As a follow-up to our pre-season roundtable, Sportsnet’s writers weigh in:
Which MLB team seems poised for a big second half?
Jeff Blair
At the risk of being labeled a homer, I can see the Toronto Blue Jays dropping the hammer and running away with the American League East, mostly because the issues that plagued them during the first half seem largely repairable. Keep an eye, as well, on the Houston Astros. Not only have they put on a spurt, but they’re positioned to make a significant pickup at the trade deadline.
Shi Davidi
The Twins, obviously, and don’t sleep on those Braves! Seriously though, I’m going with the Pirates here. They went into the break on a 12-4 run despite all their injuries, and in the coming weeks they could get Gerrit Cole, Ryan Vogelsong, Jameson Taillon and Francisco Cervelli back from the DL, which should help them make a big push.
Arden Zwelling
I think Seattle has played better than their record shows (+51 run differential) and could make a sneaky run at a wild card spot with Felix Hernandez back from injury.
Mike Wilner
I know how this will look, but it’s the Blue Jays. It won’t be a second half like last year’s was, but this team was playing its best baseball heading into the break, having won almost two thirds of its games since mid-May. The bullpen is rounding into form with the return of Brett Cecil, and Jose Bautista will be a huge addition when he returns.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
The Cardinals are barely above .500 and their best player, Matt Carpenter, is on the disabled list, but I still think St. Louis will have a strong second half. Their lineup’s scoring five runs per game, and their starting pitching should be better from here on.
What player or team were you wrong about in the first half?
Mike Wilner
I certainly didn’t see Mark Trumbo being the major-league home run leader or David Ortiz’s resurgence, and if anyone says they had Adam Duvall with 23 homers at the break (including Adam Duvall), they’re lying. I had the White Sox winning the Central, and while they made me look good early, they’ve certainly fallen back to Earth.
Arden Zwelling
I thought Houston would run away with the AL West. I don’t think anyone expected Dallas Keuchel to be this bad. Or the Rangers to be this good.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
There’s a long list, but let’s start with the Rays, who lost 22 of 25 leading up to the All-Star break. Poor pitching and some untimely injuries have conspired to derail a team I thought could contend. On the other hand, I underestimated the Indians, who look like a legit playoff team.
As for players, there’s a long list including Mark Trumbo, Michael Saunders and Shelby Miller.
Shi Davidi
Boy was I ever wrong about the Tampa Bay Rays, spectacularly wrong. Their offence hasn’t played the way I thought it would and their pitching hasn’t held up.
Jeff Blair
I called Chris Archer to win the AL Cy Young Award, and he might finish with 20 losses. I defy anybody to be more wrong about a team or player, at least not intentionally. Missed on the Cleveland Indians, too.
What’s a realistic expectation for the Blue Jays at the trade deadline?
Ben Nicholson-Smith
They need pitching, but I see them adding depth instead of bidding for top arms. If they do part with legitimate prospects, I’d have to think it’d be for someone with years of control. Otherwise, a back-end starter and extra reliever would help. Given how many innings bullpens tend to pitch in the playoffs, the Blue Jays won’t want to be complacent on the bullpen front.
I could see them making waiver trades after August 1, too. Adding a third catcher could make sense, and depending on Jose Bautista’s health they may want to pursue a right-handed hitting outfielder such as Brandon Guyer, too.
Mike Wilner
That they pick up a pitcher or two, with an emphasis on starters. It won’t be a trade deadline like last summer’s, but then, there had never been one like that before – for anyone.
Shi Davidi
I’d expect them to add secondary pieces for mid-level prospects, and that may very well be enough. If the opportunity to acquire a player with control that fits beyond this season is there, we may see them extend themselves. But fans shouldn’t expect another deadline like last year, and this team isn’t in as dire need as the last year, either.
Jeff Blair
Unless Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins can put together some sort of creative package to land a controllable outfielder or starting pitcher – free agency means the Blue Jays will have to address those issues at some point before Opening Day 2017 and if they can fill one of them now without closing this year’s window of opportunity, they should go for it – the Blue Jays can be expected to add a back-of-the-rotation starter and, maybe, a lefty specialist. That would give them some cover once Aaron Sanchez moves into the bullpen.
Arden Zwelling
A good, reliable, right-handed reliever and a dependable, unsexy, innings-eating starter. There’s no David Price and Troy Tulowitzki this year. Think Brandon Kintzler and Jeremy Hellickson. Maybe they take a run at Peter Bourjos to protect against injury to an outfielder if the price is right.
How much longer should we expect Aaron Sanchez to remain in the rotation?
Mike Wilner
A month or so.
Arden Zwelling
I believe he should remain in the rotation until there is empirical evidence demonstrating he’s doing exceptional future damage to his arm — decreased velocity and spin rate, inconsistent release points, unfavourable feedback between starts provided by both sports science tools and the man himself, etc. But how long do I expect him to remain in the rotation? From what Blue Jays brass has said publicly, probably through 135-140 innings.
Shi Davidi
I’m not convinced the Blue Jays are even sure about this. Much will depend on what they see from him in the coming weeks, and I wonder if what’s happened with the Mets pitchers of late, particularly Noah Syndergaard, may provide reason for extra caution.
Jeff Blair
That depends entirely on how successful the front office is in acquiring another starting pitcher. I’ll go out on a limb, though, and say the third week of August at the latest.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
I think he starts August in the rotation and finishes it in the bullpen.
Which AL East team poses the biggest threat to the Blue Jays: Red Sox or Orioles?
Jeff Blair
Both have significant issues within the starting rotation but the Orioles bullpen has quietly emerged this season and their lineup matches up to Boston’s. There’s more than enough here for Buck Showalter to turn into a division champion.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
Despite all the talk about John Farrell’s job security and the currently dismal state of Boston’s rotation, this team’s a couple pieces away from having a big second half. Aaron Hill and Brad Ziegler were nice pickups, and you know Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to stop there. The Red Sox have more than enough prospects to pursue impact starting pitching and upgrade over the underwhelming arms Boston has relied on to date.
Shi Davidi
I don’t think the Orioles will fall off quite the way some expect them to, but the Red Sox have the prospect capital to pull off some major deals before the deadline and Dave Dombrowski’s track record is to load up, so they could end up better than they are right now.
Arden Zwelling
Boston because the offence is legit, David Price will be better, and they’ve got the prospect capital to make a move for pitching at the deadline.
Mike Wilner
I honestly think the Blue Jays are the class of the division, and by quite a bit. The Red Sox pose the biggest threat, I think, because they have not only the capacity but also (it appears) the willingness to make major additions at the deadline. The Orioles have tended not to make the big-splash deal for in-season help, and their starting rotation needs quite a bit of splashiness.
