TORONTO – Whether things have been going well or poorly, the biggest running story of this Blue Jays season has been the disappointing performance of the bullpen. After all, the relievers have blown 11 saves in 20 opportunities, which is a horrible conversion rate.
Indeed that is a horrible conversion rate of save situations to saves. It’s also neither completely accurate nor fair. The numbers get muddled up because while a save can only be secured at the end of a game, a save can be blown a lot more often than in the final frame.
In fact, the Blue Jays have only blown two saves in the ninth inning (or later) this season. Four saves have been blown in the eighth, three in the seventh and two in the sixth.
The numbers are skewed because saves vs. blown saves don’t accurately reflect how often the Blue Jays bullpen has actually pitched in a save situation. The truth is that the Jays have gone to the bullpen 43 times in a save situation this season – that is, a spot in which a reliever has had the opportunity to blow a save. That’s because a save situation is measured not by the inning in which the reliever enters the game. If a pitcher would get a save by protecting the lead that his team has when he enters, that counts as a save situation, because if he finishes the game, he gets a save. Even though the whole world knows that he’s not going to finish the game.
For example, in the Blue Jays’ 8-0 win over the New York Mets on June 17, a game that was 1-0 into the bottom of the sixth and 3-0 in the eighth, Steve Delabar, Liam Hendriks and Aaron Loup all pitched in save situations behind starter Drew Hutchison. None of them got a save for their combined 2.1 innings of one-hit shutout work.
Delabar has one blown save this season – it came in the seventh inning against the Angels on May 20 when he gave up a two-run double to Marc Krauss – and no saves, so the numbers say he’s 0-for-1 in save opportunities. But the truth is that Delabar has pitched in five save situations this season, and has just the one blown save.
Loup, who gave up the tie in the ninth on Saturday afternoon, has blown two saves this season (one in the sixth and one in the seventh), so he’s officially 0-for-2. But he’s pitched in eight save situations, so he’s 6-for-8 at holding onto them.
The Blue Jays bullpen has been far from perfect this season, but the truth is that when the club has a lead after seven innings, they’re 31-3. When they’re leading after eight innings, they’re 32-0. When they’re tied after eight innings, as they were Saturday afternoon, they’re 2-2.
There have been a couple of bad games in a row – the nervous ninth on Friday night, in which Brett Cecil barely held on for the save, and the final frame on Saturday afternoon, in which the Orioles scored three to win. But in the entire month previous, from May 18 to June 18, the Blue Jays bullpen pitched to an ERA of 2.43 and a 0.973 WHIP over 74 innings of work. Those are outstanding numbers.
For all the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments over the massive failings of the Blue Jays relief corps, the truth of the matter is that the results haven’t been nearly as poor as the perception has been.
Could they use some help? Sure.
Are they dangling on the precipice, about to fall into a chasm, because of this awful group of relievers? Not at all.