TORONTO — As the Toronto Blue Jays head off for an eight-game road trip through Philadelphia, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and Anaheim, they do so with a couple of extra bench bats in the recently-recalled Matt Hague and (as reported by Shi Davidi) Ezequiel Carrera, a seven-man bullpen and four-man rotation, and with Troy Tulowitzki in the leadoff spot.
It’s that last bit that seems to be causing much consternation in some corners of Blue Jays fandom, since Tulowitzki is batting just .217 as a Blue Jay and has yet to reach base when leading off a game. The calls are frequent and vocal to drop Tulowitzki down to a middle-of-the-order position, befitting his skill set as a high-average power-hitter who “drives in runs,” and to move Ben Revere, a more traditional leadoff type, to the top of the Blue Jays’ batting order.
The notion that Tulowitzki and Revere’s positions in the batting order is somehow affecting their ability as hitters and that the Blue Jays are better served with Revere guaranteed to have as many, if not more, plate appearances as anyone else on the team flies in the face of several things we have learned about lineup construction over the past few years.
It also ignores a few very valid things, one being the fact that Tulowitzki has still put up a .333 on-base percentage as a Blue Jay, which is better than anyone else on the team save for The Gauntlet (Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion) and Chris Colabello. While he’s slumping.
Also, Tulowitzki has led off in 16 games and has scored 15 runs, a rate of 0.94 runs per game. Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff man ever and the all-time leader in runs scored, averaged 0.74 runs per game over his Hall of Fame career. Clearly, Tulowitzki is still getting on base enough to allow the big bats behind him to do some damage, which is a leadoff man’s job.
If you want to get into some fancier math, which may or may not mean anything, Tulowitzki is hitting .292/.414/.542 as a Blue Jay after his first plate appearance of every game. People who want him moved out of the leadoff spot may see this as a point in favour of their argument, but I see it as showing that he’s a very good hitter who you want to have batting as often as possible, which means the top spot in the order is a very good place for him.
Another number that sticks out as a counter to the pro-Revere crowd is again that pesky on-base percentage. Tulowitzki, while clearly not performing to his overall capabilities, has a .333 OBP as a Blue Jay. Ben Revere’s OBP is .324 — for his entire career. Revere at his best (career-high .338 OBP in 2013) barely gets on base more than Tulowitzki does during a time when Tulowitzki is slumping badly. Right now, as a Blue Jay, Revere’s OBP is .241.
Traditional lineup construction states that a speed guy has to hit first, followed by a “bat-control” type, preferably a left-handed hitter to take advantage of the open right side when the leadoff man reaches and the first baseman has to hold him on. Your best overall hitter bats third and the big power threat hits fourth.
What that sort of construction means, though, is that a team has to get through a weaker hitter or two before the big sticks get to the plate. Table-setters are nice to have, but they really only get to set the table once. Then after the first inning, those table-setters get to come up before the big sticks do, which often results in the big run-scoring situations placed in the hands of those guys while the better hitters sit by and wait for their turn with men on base, which may never come.
This is the way it’s always been done in the game, which makes it difficult for many to see that it could be done better. Especially with a team like Toronto, which has an embarrassment of middle-of the-order bats. It’s not just about two big hitters, it’s about four or five, and having the luxury to stack those big bats at the top of the order is a wonderful thing.
Remember, the “leadoff man” is only guaranteed to lead off once per game. From that point on, though, he’s guaranteed to come up before the better meat-of-the-order hitters in every situation, and often with runners on base begging to be driven in.
As a leadoff hitter, Revere is fine — not great, but fine. He hits for average but doesn’t walk a lot and therefore doesn’t get on base a lot, and he has great speed. For some baseball observers, that’s enough — take a .300 hitter who can steal bases and he’s the perfect fit at the top of the lineup. And maybe he is, on a team that isn’t as deep as the Blue Jays. For them, he’s the perfect fit in the nine-spot. That way, every time but in the first inning he can act as a leadoff hitter — as a table-setter for the big boys — and he doesn’t have to get that extra at-bat that is better served in the very capable hands of Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion.
The Blue Jays are flying in the face of age-old baseball wisdom, putting together a batting order that actually results in their best hitters getting the most opportunities. This is a big deal, and it’s something that should be lauded, not criticized because their slap-hitting speed guy isn’t hitting first. They’re deep enough that the meat of the order can be the top of the order, and that’s how they’re setting it up.
Also, for all the hue and cry about Tulowitzki’s .217 batting average, the Blue Jays are 14-2 when he hits in the first spot. Causation is not correlation, which is to say the Blue Jays aren’t 14-2 because Tulowitzki is leading off for them, but having him up there certainly isn’t hurting them.