Needless to say, this is unchartered territory for the Toronto Raptors franchise.
With a 4.5-game lead over the second-place Boston Celtics, who are being ravaged by injuries as we speak, the Raps are a safe bet to complete the regular season as the East’s top seed for the first time in franchise history.
The playoffs are just 15 games away, and it’s getting harder and harder to avoid looking ahead to the post-season given how high expectations are for a Toronto team with a legitimate chance to reach an NBA Finals. Although the Raps have been dominant in the regular season, the playoffs, as we know, are a different beast and the nature of competition amid the pressure-packed environment can change everything. It’s why it’s important to take things one round at a time.
Of course, we don’t yet know whom the Raptors will face in the first round. It’ll likely be the East’s eight-seed, but currently there are three teams with a realistic chance of finishing in that position:
As of today, the Miami Heat are in eighth, with the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers within a game and a half. Each team would make for a difficult first-round matchup for Toronto. Let’s take a closer look at all three likely first-round opponents:
PHILADELPHIA 76ers
The Gist: Philadelphia is a team of the future that is ready to compete right now.
With two of the NBA’s best under-25 talents in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, they’re nowhere near hitting their ceiling but are capable of beating virtually any team when those two are clicking. Throw in a solid supporting cast featuring last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up Dario Saric, ultra-active young big man Richaun Holmes, along with veterans like J.J. Redick and newly acquired Ersan Ilyasova in defined roles, and the Sixers have a lot going for them — except for playoff experience among their best players.
The Sixers have struggled against some of the East’s playoff teams, with losses against the Pacers, Bucks, and Heat (twice) over the past month.
Season Series: 3-1 Raptors.
The Raptors cleanly beat Philadelphia in each of their first three meetings by an average margin of 18 points. Their final matchup of the regular season, a 117-111 Raps loss, was a far more heated affair that you’ll remember for the Kyle Lowry-Simmons exchange that (almost) carried over into the tunnel — and that you’ll likely be reminded of a ton should these two teams square off again in April.
Must stop: Embiid. The giant, versatile Sixers centre torched the Raps for 34 points and 11 rebounds in Philly’s lone win over Toronto this season, hitting 11 of his 14 free throw attempts in the process.
A front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year, Embiid has been able to stay on the floor this season and his team has benefited as a result. He leads the Sixers in scoring at 23.5 points per game (for context: 0.1 points fewer than DeMar DeRozan averages) as well as rebounds (11) and blocks (1.8, fifth in the NBA).
Offensively, a big part of what makes Embiid such a force and so difficult to contain is his ability to get buckets from all over the court.
Raptors difference-maker: DeRozan. Easy answer, I know, but the Raps MVP has been stellar versus Philly this season, averaging 32 points per game — the second-highest against any opponent (behind only Milwaukee). Recognition goes to Serge Ibaka, too, who matches up well with the Sixers bigs and averages his second-highest point total and third-best defensive rating against any team in the East.
Verdict: This would be a fun series, and a treat for fans to see what Embiid and Simmons have in store for their first playoff appearances. But ultimately the Raptors depth and experience would be too much to overcome. Prediction? Raptors in five.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Gist: Giannis Antetokounmpo is absolutely included on a very short list of NBA stars that can take over an entire playoff series. At 23, he hasn’t done it yet, but stands a chance with the most talented Bucks team around him yet. Still, Milwaukee can be beat. The team was expected to take a leap forward this season, and has added depth by acquiring Eric Bledsoe from Phoenix early in the season and, more recently, getting oft-injured potential star Jabari Parker back in the lineup.
Yet the Bucks just haven’t taken that step yet, so much so that they fired head coach Jason Kidd midway through the season. They’ve shown positive signs under interim coach Joe Prunty but remain the only team on this list under .500 over the past 10 games.
In an effort to shore up the point guard position with reigning Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon out with a torn quad, the Bucks recently got a boost by signing former star point guard Brandon Jennings, who had been playing pro in China. Jennings was great in his Milwaukee return but it’s not exactly the best sign when, with a month left in the season, you’re handing over meaningful minutes to a player who was out of the league this time last week. That’s something lottery-bound teams are doing, not ones looking to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in their last eight tries.
Season Series: 2-1 Raptors.
In their first matchup of the season, on New Year’s Day, the Raptors narrowly edged Milwaukee 131-127 in overtime. You may recall this as the game in which DeRozan dropped 52 points on the Bucks and set a franchise record. Following a blowout Raptors win — a thorough 129-110 victory led by Jonas Valanciunas — the two teams met for another OT nail-biter that saw Pascal Siakam drop 17 points off the bench, six Bucks score in double figures, and a controversial non-call on a Valanciunas dunk that ended up sending the game to overtime:
.@JValanciunas punches it into overtime! pic.twitter.com/U0Ovq2zZHV
— NBA TV (@NBATV) February 24, 2018
Must stop: Antetokounmpo, obviously. While Milwaukee has talented supporting cast members like Bledsoe and Khris Middleton, they are still, in the context of their ability to win in the playoffs, a one-man team. He leads Milwaukee in scoring (27.1 points per game, third in the NBA), rebounding, assists, and blocks. If the Greek Freak is having a typical monster night then the Bucks stand a chance to win.
Unlike Embiid, Antetokounmpo’s game is more contained — nearly 60 per cent of his field goals come from underneath the basket, where his speed, length, reach, and explosiveness allow him to get to within one stride from virtually anywhere within the three-point line.
He’s shooting fewer threes than last season, and has been effective playing to his strengths.
Interestingly enough, Antetokounmpo’s usage rate has been lower versus the Raptors than any other team this season, calling on Milwaukee’s secondary stars to step up.
Raptors difference-maker: Valanciunas. He’s been highly effective versus the Bucks this season, shooting over 78 per cent from the floor and posting his highest offensive rating against any team in the East (155). He has a plus-minus of +19, compared to a negative plus-minus against both Philadelphia (-20.8) and Miami (-1.0).
Valanciunas was exposed defensively in their playoff matchup last season and was even pulled from the starting lineup, but he’s been playing his best basketball of his career this season and the Bucks simply don’t have the personnel to stop him on the other end of the court.
Verdict: Expect a repeat from last season — a hard-fought, physical series, where it’ll be a headache trying to contain Antetokounmpo and his re-vamped supporting cast. But at the end of the day the Raptors prevail. Prediction? Raptors in six.
MIAMI HEAT
The Gist: The deepest and most well-run of the three teams, Miami is a tough team with many weapons of attack and an overlooked roster featuring an underrated all-star, Goran Dragic, who has given the Raptors fits.
The Heat have talent at all positions and play well as a team, with 10 players averaging more than 20 minutes per game. Miami’s depth can slightly mitigate what has been one of the Raptors’ greatest strengths — their second unit — because they, too, go deep in their rotations and, like Toronto, tend to have fresh legs on the court as a result.
Although Miami doesn’t have the top-end talent the Raptors do, head coach Erik Spoelstra, like Dwane Casey, has many chess pieces at his disposal — Hassan Whiteside, Wayne Ellington, Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson, and others — and utilizes them well.
Season series: Tied 1-1
There aren’t many teams the Raps don’t have a winning record against. The two games these teams have already played — a clutch January win on the road for the Heat and a Raptors victory in Miami a little over a month later — were decided by an average of two points.
Their first meeting already had a playoff-like intensity that isn’t hard to envision carrying over to April:
It’s well-executed plays like this Miami game-winner that should have Raptors fans concerned:
Must stop: Dragic. The only team in the NBA that Miami’s lead guard has averaged more points against this season is the Sacramento Kings. Dragic’s 26 points per game versus Toronto is his highest against any team in the East, and with a crafty set of moves to the rim off the dribble along with a 50 per cent three-point shooting clip against the Raps, he’s proven he can carve up Toronto’s defence.
He is also, like his teammates, decidedly not intimated by the Raps.
Raptors difference-maker: Lowry. The all-star point guard was sidelined during his team’s loss to Miami, but made a huge impact upon his return for their second meeting, scoring 22 points and going 4-of-8 from deep, along with eight assists and a pair of steals.
Verdict: The Raptors are clear favourites against all of these teams, but, despite lacking the big-name talent of the others, Miami is the one that has the best shot at beating Toronto. I don’t see it happening, but this would be the most difficult series of the bunch. Prediction? Raptors in seven.
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