Colleagues and friends are often asking for my CFL picks. So each week I’ll share my thoughts on the upcoming slate of games, and choose winners against the spread. Lining your pockets with some extra money is the end goal, but it’s much easier said than done.
Labour Day weekend worked out pretty well for home sides as three of the four covered the spread. With three rematch games in Week 12 it’s interesting to highlight the line changes from just a week ago.
Hamilton was favoured by 7.5 points on Labour Day, but they travel to Toronto as 3.5-point frontrunners on Friday. Out West, Calgary covered a 5.5-point spread against the Eskimos on the holiday Monday, but the Stamps roll into Edmonton as one-point underdogs for the second game of the back-to-back set.
Let’s decipher what the line-makers are doing and go nail some winners.
Ticats (7-3) @ Argos (6-4)
Last week: Ticats beat Argos 42–12 in Hamilton
After rolling up (the rim) on a big win at Tim Hortons Field on Labour Day, Hamilton travels down the QEW looking to sweep the season series with the Argos. The Tabbies have dominated Toronto with a 76–30 scoring margin in winning the first two meetings in 2015. That makes it appear that the Argonauts are not quite on the same level with Hamilton at the moment.
Orlondo Steinauer and the Ticats defence made life difficult for Trevor Harris last Monday and that allowed Hamilton to jump out to a 30–1 lead. You would expect a better effort from Harris and Co. on Friday night, but the Ticats should get a win and cover.
Line: Ticats -3.5
Pick: Hamilton
Riders (1-9) @ Bombers (3-7)
Last week: Riders beat Bombers 37–19 in Saskatchewan
Let the Matt Nichols experiment begin in Winnipeg. With Drew Willy’s knee injury keeping him on the sidelines, the Bombers went out and acquired a quarterback with 12 career CFL starts. After a crash course in learning Marcel Bellefeuille’s offence, Nichols will start in the Banjo Bowl for Winnipeg.
Both teams are in desperate need of a win as Saskatchewan looks to push their way into the West playoff race, and the Bombers need to stop a free fall that’s seen them lose four straight games.
If Nichols can play mistake-free football, Winnipeg gets back in the win column.
Line: Riders -1
Pick: Winnipeg
Stampeders (8-2) @ Eskimos (6-4)
Last week: Stampeders beat Eskimos 16–7 in Calgary
Eskimos linebacker Deon Lacey tried to rattle Stampeders quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell by not shaking his hand and chirping him during the coin toss before the Western Labour Day Classic kicked off, but Calgary and their leader were unfazed by the antics. The Stamps handed Edmonton a12th straight loss in the series, and after the game Mitchell added the following on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/BoLeviMitchell/status/641308841406275584
More drama added to an already heated rivalry, if you can even call it that at the moment with the way the horses have dominated recently.
You can bet emotions will be running high again at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday, but until the Eskimos prove they can beat Calgary, riding with the Stamps is the prudent play.
Line: Eskimos -1
Pick: Calgary
Redblacks (5-4) @ Lions (4-5)
Last week: Redblacks enjoyed a bye week; Lions won 25–16 in Montreal
Before BC played last week in la belle province reports surfaced that if first-year head coach Jeff Tedford and the Lions suffered a loss to Montreal he could’ve been fired afterwards. But BC was literally gifted a win by the Als thanks to five Tanner Marsh interceptions, and Tedford is still employed.
But Travis Lulay suffered a knee injury and said it could sideline him for three to six weeks—so, enter John Beck. A one-time second-round pick by the Miami Dolphins back in 2007, Beck will start in Lulay’s place this week.
Meanwhile, Ottawa makes the cross-country trip after coming off a bye week and boosting their defence by adding defensive end Shawn Lemon, who had 13 sacks in 2014, after he was let go by the Steelers and 49ers.
The Redblacks beat BC soundly all the way back in Week 2, although that feels like ages ago. Since then Ottawa appears to have found a steady runner in Jeremiah Johnson and that improved rushing attack should take some pressure off Henry Burris’s shoulders.
Better quarterback and defence equals taking the Redblacks and the points on the Left coast.
Line: Lions -4
Pick: Ottawa
Dunk’s overall record against the spread: 10-14