Just when you think you have the answers, the NFL changes the questions. Every Friday, we’ll attempt to figure out what’s happening around the league—and more importantly, why.
This week: What’s finally clicked for the Panthers; trusting Geno Smith and Megatron Inc.’s public relations spokesperson.
Q: Why was Cam Newton so confusingly average in this season’s first month? Why is he now so great? It’s the same guy, same coach and same team around him, right?
A: It is. But something clearly changed. Newton’s completion percentage, TD: INT ratio and record through the first four games of 2013 were 57.4 percent, 6:5 and 1-3 respectively. Over his next three games, including Thursday Night’s efficient dismantling of the Bucs, those number improve to 77.3 percent, 6:0 and 3-0. And it has nothing to do with his passing.
Well, perhaps not nothing, but it’s mostly happening on the ground, where Panthers coach Ron Rivera seems to have finally realized that it’s when he’s calling designed rushing plays for his hyper-athletic quarterback that defences get so confused that the Panthers can do pretty much whatever they want to them.
These next two sequences aren’t passing plays, but they came on consecutive snaps against the Bucs during the first quarter on Thursday night and they illustrate how effective the sheer terror defences feel when Newton is free and running in the open field can create other options for the Panthers. The first play is an example of smart, decisive quarterback play—this isn’t a broken play turning into a scramble, or Newton freelancing and making plays because he’s a superior athlete. It’s planned and executed and something the Panthers hadn’t been doing nearly often enough.
It’s third and 12, so Newton takes the snap in the shotgun as though he’s preparing to throw—as most QBs would in this situation—but he’s watching the Bucs’ defensive end, Adrian Clayborn and cornerback Leonard Johnson, to see how they react to the “pass”.
When Newton sees Clayborn come inside the pile to try to get to him, and sees Johnson follow Brandon LaFell, who is clearing out space on the left sideline, Newton immediately tucks the ball and takes off to the outside.
With a pile of defenders now between them, Clayborn has no lane to pursue, linemen are too slow to catch Newton anyway, and Johnson is now too far downfield to come up and make the tackle on Newton, who is now free and clear in the open field.
This play went for 16 yards, because Newton secured the first down and then hit the turf, but if Newton had wanted to stretch this play further, he had a one-on-one situation against linebacker Mason Foster—and attempting to bring Newton down one-on-one with a head of steam is not a situation any defence wants to be in.
They had a third-and-long to get off the field. Newton ruined that, and now the Bucs defence is spooked. They know that play was bad, and that it easily could have been worse, and they’re determined not to let it happen again. This plays right into Rivera’s hands for the next snap.
The Panthers prey on the Bucs’ fears by lining up in the shotgun again, this time with a full backfield.
When a defence is already afraid of a quarterback run, the option becomes that much more effective. Bucs defender Gerald McCoy is being read by Newton here—and McCoy is so focused on not allowing the quarterback to get by him, that he’s nearly oblivious to Williams looping out left.
Newton sells the run to McCoy with a quick fake, and McCoy has no choice but to stay with him rather than embarrass himself, so when the toss goes to Williams, he already has the edge on McCoy and the only man who can get ahold of him is Steven Means, who has to take a long angle and give up ten yards on the ground. This gives the Panthers first-and-goal from the nine-yard line.
Three plays later—the first two another Williams run and a Newton keeper—Newton will complete a one-yard touchdown pass to Greg Olsen, with the defence again selling out to stop the quarterback run.
If your receiving corps are worse than the league average—and, aging Steve Smith aside, the Panthers have a motley crew—the easiest way to get them space is to have the defence constantly worried about when they should bail on the coverage to try to help bring down runners out of the backfield. When the receivers have a little extra space, and the quarterback has a little extra time—because it’s tougher to go all-out directly at a quarterback when you’re terrified he’s going to take off in the other direction for a 20-plus yard gain—well, that’s when a completion percentage rises by 20 points.
It’s no coincidence that in the Panthers first four games, Newton ran an average of five times per game. In their last three games, his rushing attempts have climbed from 9 to 10 to 11. If they dip down below 10 per game again this season, the Panthers are either playing in a blowout or making a huge mistake.
Q: The Jets are one game back of the Patriots in the AFC East. Can they really make it a race?
A: You bet your Uggs they can. Remember Tom Brady’s masterful last-minute comeback against the New Orleans saints two weeks ago? The one that had radio announcers screaming about unicorns and show ponies? Well Geno Smith is all about that life—at least so far. Smith has led two fourth-quarter comebacks already in his rookie season, tied with Tom Brady (among several others, including Carson Palmer) for the NFL lead. And that’s very nice and all, but it’s Smith’s game-winning drives that astound. The Jets have four wins—and he’s led a game-winning drive in each of them. He’s alone atop the QB rankings in this category, the first rookie to ever do so in the first four wins of his career. Smith is at his best in the fourth quarter because he’s not trying to put everything he’s supposed to be learning to work. The NFL offence is far more complex than college, and Smith excels when plays break down and he’s forced to use his legs or throw one of his fantastic deep balls. In other words, when he turns off his brain and just reacts. The rest will come in time, for now the Jets best shot at the AFC East is to trust his instincts.
Q: Who’s the next great NFL player-turned-broadcaster?
A: We’re not sure which career path he’ll choose, but if we ever needed public relations help—or just a football player to talk about pretty much anything—we’d definitely consider Lions receiver Nate Burleson as our spokesperson. Burleson isn’t the player he used to be, and is still battling a broken arm—but he’s a perfect fit next to the soft-spoken Calvin Johnson, because there are things Megatron doesn’t want to say. And Nate will say them, with glee.
Q: Why should I finally cave and get a DVR?
A: Because the NFL’s flex scheduling doesn’t begin until week 11—and this is the month that make those prime time games truly painful. During the first six weeks of the season, even if the teams who end up under the lights aren’t very good, it’s tough to know if they’re not very good, or if they’ve just had a rough start. But in weeks 7-10, we’re still watching matchups that were chosen long before the season started, between teams who we now know don’t belong on prime time. This is how you get the hot mess that was Vikings-Giants last Monday. This week, though, is arguably worse. It’s one thing to watch two bad teams try to push one another across the finish line—it’s another to watch Christian Ponder battle Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night, then to follow it up with Kellen Clemens seeing his first real NFL action since 2011 against the Seattle Seahawks defence. If you wanted to stay off Twitter for a while and save Cowboys-Lions for Sunday evening, then maybe Redskins-Broncos for Monday night, nobody would blame you.