A couple of veteran NHL scouts offered up a few clear-eyed if contradictory assessments of top Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Mitch Marner.
Scout 1
“At this stage Marner reminds me of [Nazem] Kadri in the year after his draft,” said the veteran Ontario-based scout who is the owner of a Stanley Cup ring.
If you’re one of the legion of Leafs fans who have tired of waiting for Kadri to emerge as an elite first-line centre, then the scout’s assessment might read as a dis of the Leafs’ first pick, fourth overall last June. Those who see hope for Kadri in analytics and think he’s a talent ready to shed an incredible run of bad luck, then the assessment will read differently.
The scout explained the comparison in depth. “What people forget was that Kadri was really good [after his draft] in London,” he said. “He wasn’t physically ready for the NHL and Marner isn’t either—he’s even farther away. In terms of puck skills, though, Kadri [was] and Marner [is] just better than everyone they’re playing with and against.”
By numbers, you could make a case that Marner is out in front of Kadri at the same age but the scout suggested that goals and points aren’t the only measure in play. “[London coach Dale] Hunter kept a pretty tight grip on Kadri and he had to fall into line,” he said. “Marner, though, he pretty much does what he wants. He knows he’s there to play his 30 or 35 minutes. He’s going to stay out there on the ice for a whole two-minute power play and then another minute on top of that.
“As much as he can score at this level, you’ve got to put in time playing the game the way that you’re going to have to play it against men. I don’t know if [Marner’s] head has been turned by the hype or he feels like he has to force things to live up to expectations, but he could take some of the ‘star’ out of the way he’s going at the game.”
The scout suggested that the world junior tournament could be coming along at just the right juncture to shock Marner back into a better, more pro-ready approach. “He’s can’t take that act to world juniors,” he said. “It won’t play, not against the best 19-year-olds out there. He has a great chance to be successful [at the tournament] and to raise his game. If he plays beside Dylan Strome, it should be a good fit for him.
“Strome has really taken a step up in his skating—which had been an issue going into the draft But two-minute shifts isn’t a way to improve [for Marner]. It’s a way to fail and get exposed and let your team down.”
Scout 2
Leafs fans would be more heartened by the take of a second scout who compares Marner to a Conn Smythe winner and, if the season-ended today, a surefire Hart Trophy candidate.
“I think you can draw a straight line between Marner and [former Knight] Patrick Kane,” an NHL scouting director said. “The question a lot of people ask is whether Marner’s physically ready to play at the next level. At this point, you should just stop asking the question.
“Guys have tried to hit Marner and they can’t find him. It was the same thing with Kane at the same stage… they just see the ice so well and have such great instincts. And the fact is, one thing that makes them hard to hit is that you’re going to get beat bad if you try to run them.”
When asked about the point made by Scout 1 concerning Marner’s inclination to take the two-minute shifts and freelance, Scout 2 was in general agreement, but said that Marner wasn’t necessarily to blame for it. Or at least entirely so.
“You have to put some of that on Dale [Hunter],” Scout 2 said. “That’s how he is with his top players. He was that way with Kane and that way with Kadri. With Kane, I remember there’d be times that he would come over to the bench, thinking Dale was going to change lines but [Hunter] would just point and send him back out there.
“Really that’s Dale just coaching to give his team the best chance to win. It didn’t hurt Kane, that’s for sure. He had to change [when he went to Chicago] but it’s not like playing two-minute shifts in London hurt his development. Yeah, you can talk about accountability and the 200-foot game and how it might be lacking for them in junior, but so long as they’re all in and with the program, they’re going to figure it out [when they get to the NHL].”
Scout 2 said that in interviews at their respective combines he came away with the impression that Kane and Marner might be fairly similar in attitude about the game.
“Let’s put it this way, neither of them at 18 lacked for confidence,” he said. “They know what they can do. If someone told them that they’re not going to be able to do something, they’d just say, ‘Watch me.’ If someone told them, ‘You’re going to have to do something this way’ and they saw something better, they’re going with their gut. They trust their games.”
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