Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. With two more goals on Saturday, Brent Burns now has 27 on the season. That ties him for sixth among all players. That also puts him on pace for 37 goals, 88 points and over 300 shots on goal (again). Sharks’ fans are campaigning him to be the NHL MVP. I’m campaigning him to be the fantasy hockey MVP. He’s a defenceman, folks. That’s why. He’s the third-leading scorer in the NHL, behind only Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby. He also frees up an additional forward slot for you.
2. We had to wait a few days for Claude Julien’s second stint in Montreal to begin. The main storyline as far as the lines go was Alex Galchenyuk returning to centre on the top line. He and Max Pacioretty each recorded an assist on Andrei Markov’s goal. Galchenyuk has struggled in February with just three points and a minus-5 in eight games.
Galchenyuk isn’t the only Hab that could stand to benefit from a coaching change. Carey Price’s recent struggles have been well documented (3.20 GAA and .899 SV% since January 7), so another game sans W isn’t what his fantasy owners were hoping for in his only start of the week. But it appeared that Price used the league-mandated layoff as a mental health break, stopping 30 of 32 shots. Any step in the right direction is a positive.
3. Antoine Roussel excels in one particular peripheral category. So if your league isn’t shallow and it counts PIM, then it goes without saying that he should be owned, mainly because he won’t kill your points total either. Then he records a hat trick on Saturday and you’re ecstatic that you held onto him all that time. What was his secret in this game? Playing on a line with Tyler Seguin, who assisted on all three of his goals.
Because the Stars won, and Seguin and Jamie Benn were on different lines, expect the Stars’ top two forwards to be on different lines again next week. That should help spread out the scoring instead of it being concentrated to one line. To me, that makes players such as Roussel, Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp, or Patrick Eaves less risky to own. If they are not the chosen one for the Seguin/Benn line, then the quality of their linemates drops dramatically.
4. Dougie Hamilton is a desirable fantasy commodity. He has the third-highest power-play time per game among Calgary defencemen, behind Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie. Since Hamilton likes to shoot, and since Giordano and Brodie have not been having the kind of season that Hamilton has, I kind of wonder why he’s not generally used on the first-unit power play (which is not the first puzzling coaching move I’ve seen from coach Glen Gulutzan in his time with Calgary).
Hamilton is currently on pace for 47 points, which I think he should reach given that his shooting percentage is about where it has been for his career (five to six per cent) If Gulutzan decides to use him on the first-unit power play, Hamilton could become an Oliver Ekman-Larsson (pre-2016-17 season) multi-category beast with a 55-point ceiling. Since Hamilton is only 23, there is lots of time for this to happen.
5. Oscar Klefbom has been seeing a ridiculous amount of ice time lately, hitting over 25 minutes in three of his last six games. It’s not ridiculous if your name is Ryan Suter or Drew Doughty, but the average of 25 minutes per game is reserved for just 10 or 12 players in the league. If Klefbom is joining that club, then his future in fantasy is obviously bright. With three points last night he has eight points in his last 12 games.
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6. Richard Panik scored again on Saturday. That gives him five goals and five assists over his last 10 games. I’ll just reiterate that as long as he’s on the Blackhawks’ first-unit power play with the usual names, you should consider adding him.
7. Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t had a season this bad since his sophomore season of 2005-06, and it’s clear that the Penguins have switched permanently to Matt Murray as their starter. I’ve also moved on from Fleury, having dropped him in one league when Roberto Luongo became available. (I know Luongo is struggling, but he should still start more often than Fleury over the rest of the season.)
But how owners value Fleury could vary widely. The reason is that there are two scenarios where Fleury could still hold value this season, and another owner’s perceived value of him would depend on how likely he/she believes that these scenarios could play out: 1) Fleury is traded before the deadline, and 2) Murray is injured again. It might make sense for the Penguins to try to trade Fleury so that he’s not exposed in the expansion draft, but imagine a scenario for the Penguins in which Murray is injured and Fleury has been traded. With such little activity before the deadline, I’d have to assume Fleury stays put at this point.
8. Markus Granlund has turned out to be a better player than many thought he was when he was acquired from Calgary for Hunter Shinkaruk. But we’re talking about a player whose upside is more second-line than anything. He will probably stay on the Sedin line if he continues to produce (points in five of his last seven games), and he may be a great fit since the Sedins desperately need a goal scorer (14 goals this season). But his minus-17 is also an anchor, and it likely won’t improve this season. So he’s a deep league add at best.
9. Victor Rask has completely fallen off the map. He hasn’t recorded a point of any kind in 12 games and counting. At the centre position, he shouldn’t be in your starting lineup at the moment (although the Canes’ fantasy playoff schedule looks favorable, if you can save him until then). The Canes are basically three lines deep of good-but-not-great scoring options. So you can’t really blame his linemates or his usage.
10. On John Tavares-Josh Bailey-Anders Lee: Tavares is what makes this line go but Bailey has stepped up his game as playmaker this season. He’s tied with the former for the team lead in assists and it’s not just some fluke from playing with Tavares. Bailey had been a bust for years but now in his ninth season at 27, he is emerging as a fantasy relevant threat. Not too often you see players emerge this late.
And, kudos to you if you stuck with Lee through the tough times. It was awfully tempting to give up on him after his struggles the first couple of months of the season, especially after failing to improve last year. He is on pace for 32 goals and 51 points. He might fall just shy of 30 goals, however. His shooting percentage is on the high end at 16.5 per cent, even for an elite net-front guy.
11. I assume that if Justin Schultz and Olli Maatta miss time that we’ll see Derrick Pouliot make his return, which would be more exciting if Pouliot had ever looked good in his previous cameos or had shown mastery of the AHL level, but neither have happened as of yet. He’s 23 and running out of time. We can’t give up because guys like Schultz show how long it can take but at least those guys held NHL jobs while finding their way. Pouliot hasn’t even cleared that hurdle. Some of that is opportunity but until recently, the Penguins were hurting for defensive depth and Pouliot was supposed to be a solution.
12. Oh boy, here we go with another Brady Skjei hot streak. He has seven assists in the last eight games and 19 shots on goal in that stretch. He doesn’t provide this type of scoring consistently, after all he is on pace for 39 points. By definition, a 39-point defenceman is going to have plenty of goose eggs. He is one slick puck-mover, however, and his ability to feed their speedy forwards in stride is a huge reason the Rangers are one of the league’s best counter-attacking teams.
Skjei skated over 20 minutes Thursday for the first time in nearly a month and saw more than a minute of power-play time (3:08) for the first time since December 31. If Skjei was used more, he could probably crack permanent fantasy relevance but until that time his value is limited to short bursts.
13. You never know where the openings are going to come but there always seem to be new opportunities for goalies to step into No. 1 gigs. Scott Darling has certainly performed well enough as a backup in his three years to be considered a potential starter.
Las Vegas is an obvious candidate, although they may seek someone more established. I wonder if Carolina, even with both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack under contract for next season, would consider a change.
14. Called up by the Kings this week, Adrian Kempe’s AHL numbers aren’t particularly good having scored 22 goals and 47 points in 101 regular season games. You can add another 12 goals and 14 points from in 30 playoff games from their past two playoff runs.
He’s only 20 but this is the profile of a depth player, not a genuine scoring star. I think that the Kings will benefit a lot more from his arrival than fantasy owners will. He’s big, fast and tenacious – a prototypical depth Kings player. Because of his pedigree, I think we all want to see Kempe with a shot on Anze Kopitar’s wing. He can’t do worse than many of the other players the Kings have tried there. I am cool on Kempe’s immediate value but I would never rule out him finding another offensive gear, especially alongside Kopitar and Tyler Toffoli.
15. Oliver Bjorkstrand made his return to the Blue Jacket lineup Wednesday with Scott Hartnell out. He immediately got top line usage with Brandon Saad and Alexander Wennberg. Say what you will about John Tortorella but he seems invested in putting players in a position to succeed. He has consistently used Bjorkstrand in a scoring role whenever he has been called up. It’s one of the reasons I was so high on Bjorkstrand coming into the year.
Obviously, it hasn’t worked out for Bjorkstrand but he remains a top prospect. He hasn’t been able to stick at the NHL level and he has scored 14 goals and 26 points in 37 AHL games this season. That’s not quite the mastery I expect to see and certainly not up to the 10 goals and 16 points he scored in 17 AHL playoff games last spring.
16. Wennberg is teetering on the borderline of droppable in my 10-team league because we count hits, blocked shots, PIM, etc. He’s really only valuable when scoring and he has just 13 points in 22 games since January 1. That’s a 48-point pace. Not cutting it in a league that size, especially when he only scored in eight of those 22 games.
Any player can go through a rough stretch and I’m shopping Wennberg before I drop him but another month of 48-point production and he won’t be on my roster for the fantasy playoffs.
17. Vladimir Tarasenko has six goals in nine games under new coach Mike Yeo. Too small a sample to say anything definitive but I like that Tarasenko’s minutes have been up – he has been above 20 minutes in four of these nine games.
Ken Hitchcock was notorious for shorting Tarasenko’s ice time, particularly when protecting leads. He used Tarasenko for more than 20 minutes in only eight of the previous 50 games this year. Tarasenko is getting usage while protecting leads, which could open up the potential of some easy empty-net scores.
18. Kevin Hayes cares not for those notions of regression. While he stumbled for a bit in the month of December, he has gone off since the Christmas break scoring 19 points in the last 16 games. Hayes and his line with Michael Grabner and J.T. Miller continue to play the rope-a-dope getting punished on shot metrics but they pounce on turnovers for instant offense.
19. Christian Dvorak is starting to show signs of life. He has five goals and eight points in the last eight games. I’m not positive that this portends to a strong final couple of months but I am intrigued. He came into this season as a big-time prospect and still has a high ceiling. It’s good to see flashes. Perhaps things start to come together next season.
20. Brandon Dubinsky continues to be a person of interest, and not just in rotisserie leagues. The Blue Jackets’ second line with Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson and Boone Jenner has dominated opponents of late, leading Dubinsky to score 10 points in the last eight games. He’s must-own material if your league scores hits or faceoffs but has short-term value in other formats as well.
Jenner hasn’t received the same kind of bump in value. He’s either going to start producing soon or this line will fizzle out. I’d lean towards the latter but one can dream.