Every Sunday during the regular season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings.”
1. William Karlsson is producing at a point-per-game pace (22 points in 22 games) and has – count ‘em – five consecutive two-point games, with seven of those 10 points in the form of goals. In fact, only Alex Ovechkin, Nikita Kucherov, John Tavares, and Sean Monahan have more goals than Karlsson in 2017-18 at the time of this writing.
Is Karlsson for real? Well, he’s currently shooting at a 25.5 percent clip. This from a guy who shot at an average of seven per cent over his past two seasons in Columbus. To put that into perspective, no one who played at least 35 games last season shot higher than 23 percent. So, you might think you know where this is going, but hold on a moment.
We can say that Karlsson is a far more dangerous player in his present situation than his past one, with better linemates (Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, compared to Matt Calvert and Josh Anderson in Columbus) and an increase in ice time of nearly five minutes per game, much of which is power-play time. So expect a minor dropoff sometime but not to the point where he’ll fall off a cliff completely. Every season has its surprises, and Karlsson qualifies as one for the 2017-18 season.
2. Hopefully the floodgates are opening for a couple players:
Brent Burns scored his first goal of the year on Friday against Vegas. He now has one goal on 88 shots. At this shot rate, even if he scores on just five percent of his shots, he’ll push for 15 goals. Obviously not what fantasy owners are looking for on the season, but if you can buy low on him now, 14-15 goals over the final 60 games is just fine.
Cam Atkinson had a pair of goals for Columbus in their 5-2 win on Friday. It had been a very slow start for him with just four goals and seven points in 18 games heading into that game. He’s still earning 18-20 minutes of ice time, though, and shooting three times a game. This could be the game where his offence starts picking up steam. Let’s hope.
3. The Kings welcomed back Marian Gaborik to the lineup on Friday night. There’s no fantasy relevance here yet but I’m keeping an eye on how he looks and how the coach uses him over the next four or five games.
At 35 years old, Gaborik is not the player he was even five years ago when he was still with the Rangers. However, over his first three seasons in Los Angeles, he managed 0.73 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. For reference, on his own team, Jeff Carter was at 0.75, and league-wide, he was in the same neighbourhood as guys like Wayne Simmonds (0.75), Jakob Silfverberg (0.74), Tomas Hertl (0.73), and Andrew Ladd (0.72).
If he can be that player again for the Kings, it’ll be a much-needed shot in the arm offensively. It’ll probably take him some games to get up to full speed first, though.
4. Kudos to Charlie Lindgren on a job very well done. He started eight games and managed a 0.924 save percentage in those games. The team only won three of them but he’s helped keep their meager playoff hopes alive. If he didn’t perform as well as he did, this team could be fighting with the Sabres for the basement of the East.
As for him, Carey Price finally returned to the Canadiens’ lineup on Saturday, and it couldn’t have gone any better. Price stopped all 36 shots he faced in the Canadiens’ 3-0 win over Buffalo. If the Habs happen to make the playoffs, Price’s return might be the season’s turning point.
The time off appeared to give Price the mental health break that he needed, as he had struggled mightily before his lower-body injury (3-7-1, 3.77 GAA, .877 SV%). Your window to buy low on Price will have closed a little with this shutout, while current Price owners will be relieved that this start wasn’t a continuation of the first month of the season. Activate Price if you haven’t already.
5. With Eddie Lack waived earlier this week, David Rittich made – and won – his first NHL start for the Flames, stopping 24 of 26 shots on Saturday. The Flames appeared ready to bring him up, as he had posted a 5-1 record with a 2.17 goals-against average and 0.931 save percentage in the AHL. Don’t expect him to make more than the odd spot start, though, as Mike Smith is on pace to start over 70 games. But there’s always the concern that Smith is overworked to the point that he gets injured.
6. I don’t know if Chris Kreider will ever be consistent enough to spin together a 60-point season but he certainly has the talent and opportunity. With the Ranger power play now a genuine weapon, Kreider has his best chance to pick up some cheap points. His career high for power-play points came last season with 13 but as one of the league’s better slot men, he could easily cash in 10 power-play goals and 20 power-play points. That kind of performance could elevate him to the 30-goal and 60-point plateaus we all yearn for him to reach.
7. It’s been a tough month for Nicklas Backstrom owners as the centreman has just seven points in the last 16 games. Keep in mind, he’s still on pace for 64 points, despite the down month. With continued deployment on the top power-play unit and exposure to good talent at five-on-five, he should be fine.
We should acknowledge that the Caps are much weaker than in previous years and that Backstrom is being asked to do a lot more heavy-lifting at 5-on-5. Between his defensive responsibilities and a weaker blue-line group, his five-on-five offence will likely be depressed to an extent. Especially with Andre Burakovsky out. Evgeny Kuznetsov has reaped the rewards of Backstrom’s hard work and cashed in with his new linemates, while Jakub Vrana is going to be a spotty option all season, but he has talent to go off when put in a good spot.
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8. David Pastrnak has been unbelievably good so far in his career. Keeper/dynasty owners: hang on tight. He should be valued just outside the top-tier of wingers.
9. The Brock Boes Monster has scored six goals on a five-game goal streak that has him up above a point-per-game pace, as well as on pace for 43 goals. He’s going to fall short by season’s end but make no mistake, Brock Boeser is a 40-goal threat. He’s still not seeing quite the usage you would hope for at just a little more than 16 minutes per game but it is great to see the power play time tilting in his direction more and more.
He and Bo Horvat probably aren’t good enough to take on the opponents’ best on a nightly basis, which is ultimately why their minutes sit in the suboptimal range. We’ll see if they get there, my bet is no for this season.
10. Tuukka Rask is nowhere near immunized against a coup from backup Anton Khudobin. He’s been horribly inconsistent for two years running. Two years ago, it was a slow start followed by a wicked second half. Last year was the reverse. The cumulative effect was two seasons of a 0.915 save percentage, slightly below average, but if you owned him at the right time he was dynamite.
Odds are that Rask is going to get back in net at some point, start 55 games, and likely go on some kind of run where he looks like an elite option again but probably not enough to get his 0.897 save percentage up to league average.
11. Kyle Palmieri’s cursed season continues as he is out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot. Mind you, Palmieri has always been a band-aid, so these injuries are part and parcel.
With Palmieri and Marcus Johansson out, Jesper Bratt is somewhat relevant again. On Wednesday, he scored a goal in 19 minutes of action, the most ice time he had seen in almost three weeks. He saw a bunch of minutes with Taylor Hall at even strength and on the power play, which is the best spot to be in the Devils lineup. I wouldn’t chase Bratt in most leagues but there’s value in deeper setups and keepers.
12. Nick Leddy, with 20 points in 23 games, remains in the hunt for the top scoring defenceman, just one point behind leader John Klingberg. Points will come and go, especially for defencemen but it’s things like shots on goal and opportunity that I care about most. Leddy is entrenched as the defenceman on the Isles’ top unit and now that he’s effectively blasting the puck from the point, I’m no longer upset about his placement there. He’s on pace for 207 shots on goal, which will keep him relevant when the scoring dries up.
13. If there’s someone I’d be tempted to sell high on, it’s Jaden Schwartz. An injury risk in past seasons, Schwartz has been good for between 55 and 65 points when healthy for a full season. Certainly there is the potential for plenty more points should he stay in his current situation. But those points are more likely to come in the form of assists, given that he has averaged only two shots per game this season, which isn’t far off from his season-by-season averages.
14. Word is out that Joe Pavelski has been battling an injury this season. That would help to explain his early struggles. Everything you want to see in terms of minutes, opportunity and shot volume are there. He is simply suffering through an abysmal run of shooting. Maybe the injury is helping to cause that misfortune. I’d wager it is bit of both worlds.
The million-dollar question is whether Pavelski, who never misses time, eventually gets healthy or if this hampers him all the way to a disappointing 50-point season. He could even eventually be forced from the lineup entirely. I’m in no position to speculate on the impact of a non-specific injury. Everything in the numbers indicates that Pavelski should improve, which is what I’m betting on.
Of course, every decision you make regarding buy/sell/drop/hold options is relative to your league and the options available. Find me a shallow eight-team league and I can buy the notion of dropping Pavelski, there might be some really juicy options on the waiver wire in that scenario. However, Pavelski should be held in most leagues.
15. I remain dubious of Will Butcher’s minutes. He is averaging just 16:05 per game, and can get shutout late in games when the Devils are protecting a lead. He’s a power-play specialist, however, which will keep him relevant. I am not stoked about Butcher’s shot volume either: 25 shots on goal through 23 games is not very good.
16. My past few waiver wire grabs have ripped up the scoresheet with Jason Zucker, Micheal Ferland and Sebastian Aho all offering tremendous value over the past couple of weeks. This week my big add was Kevin Fiala.
Since I can already picture the question rolling in, I like Aho the most of that group, but you should be able to guess that based on my principles, which favour things like opportunity and shot volume. He might also be the most skilled of the bunch and is the best spot as a top line/top PP option who pumps more rubber than a porno shoot.
I’d rank them as such for the ROS: Aho, Zucker, Ferland, Fiala.
I’d swap Ferland and Zucker in a multi-category setting, however. Ferland brings enough in the PIM/Hits categories to gamble on him sticking on the Flames’ top line.
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17. I am open to using Mattias Ekholm, especially while Ryan Ellis is out but I do not believe Ekholm is going to remain relevant all season. Ekholm has had hot runs like this in the past. Used in a similar spot on the Predators’ second power-play unit, Ekholm’s second quarter last year featured a run with 11 points in 22 games. He also scored just 12 points in the season’s remaining 60 games. It’s a no-brainer but Ekholm becomes irrelevant without power-play time. Eventually, Ellis is going to return and it’s clear that he represents a much more dynamic option than Ekholm.
Anyways, enjoy the run from Ekholm. He offers a ton of value right now. Try to sell him if you can get someone who should stick in your lineup for the full 82. Otherwise, ride out the hot streak until he cools off and then use someone else. This is how you can maximize the limited roster spots that you have.
18. Nathan MacKinnon’s looking like he’s on a different level than each of his previous seasons. His speed, his hands, his quick release. All his attributes are coming to the forefront in his age-22 season. He’s now up to seven goals and 26 points on the year. It feels like he’s been in the league forever but the 2013 first overall pick is really just coming into his prime now. It’s fun to watch.
19. Nail Yakupov’s minutes are still too low to be relied upon for fantasy hockey but he does have more points (10) this year in just 22 games than he had last season (nine points in 40 outings). He won’t live up to his hype from five years ago but it would be nice to see him carve out a career playing specialized minutes. There’s still offensive talent there. Just not franchise-changing talent.
20. Of note to fantasy owners is that Victor Rask was a healthy scratch twice earlier this week. Head coach Bill Peters said he wasn’t happy with Rask’s play and thought some time in the press box would help. He does have just five points in 19 games this year and his play-driving numbers aren’t very good either. Hopefully this is the wake-up call he needs.
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