Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. Just when you think Mikael Granlund’s point streak can’t last any longer, he turned it up another notch on Saturday. Granlund earned a hat trick along with an assist to make his point streak an even dozen. So, now he’ll smash his career highs in goals, assists, and points. In addition, this recent run now has him knocking on the door of the top 10 in NHL scoring.
One stat that stands out to me from Saturday’s explosion in Vancouver is Granlund’s power-play time. The Wild only received one power-play in this game, but Granlund only received eight seconds of PP time total. One of his goals was short-handed, where he seems to be used nearly as often. So, Granlund only seems to be a second-unit power-play guy. He does have five power-play points during his point streak, but the big boys he’s keeping company with are usually on the first-unit power play.
Even though Granlund is in the midst of a breakout, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to try to sell high in a single-season league. If nothing else, just to see what you might receive.
2. With Peter Budaj as effective as he has been, the Kings have the luxury of easing Jonathan Quick back into regular duty and not risking re-aggravation of his injury. But that should also serve as a heads-up for all the Quick owners out there who might be expecting a normal Quick-like workload upon return.
When that return will be is not known, although it’s worth mentioning that Quick has been practising in full equipment and is currently travelling with the Kings on their four-game road trip. An earlier report suggested Quick wouldn’t be back until March, so my guess is that there may be some AHL injury rehab starts for Quick later in the month.
3. Despite the loss on Saturday, Michal Neuvirth appears to be gaining the upper hand in the Flyers’ goaltending situation, having allowed just one goal in each of his last three starts. Dave Hakstol doesn’t seem to mess with lineups that work (hence the Shayne Gostisbehere scratching again), so expect Neuvirth to receive the call again on Monday against St. Louis. As a Steve Mason owner, I’m sort of worried, but I’ve benched Mason in recent weeks anyway.
4. Three assists from Matt Duchene on Saturday is a welcome sight for his owners. With the rough season that both he and the Avs have had, at least he now has eight points in his last eight games. Duchene has been a minus-18 combined over the last three months (November, December, January), so he’s not a must-start as long as he’s with the Avs.
As a Duchene owner I kind of hope he’s traded from Colorado, but it can’t help his fantasy value much if he’s stuck on another team’s third line.
5. Panthers fans and fantasy owners received some unexpected good news on Friday morning, as both Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau were cleared to play in time for Friday’s game against Anaheim. Huberdeau wasted no time shaking off the rust, scoring a goal in the second period that happened to be assisted by Barkov. We know that the Panthers haven’t performed up to expectations this season, particularly their own. But this infusion of talent will have the team feeling more confident in their playoff chances.
Jonathan Marchessault goes back to being the odd man out, which is too bad considering his early-season surge and his recent stats (five-game point streak entering Friday’s game). Unfortunately, Marchessault was held without a point on Friday, skating just 12 minutes. The good news is that Marchessault got to skate with the top line on the power play. Still, I’d be looking to sell if possible.
6. One potential beneficiary of Mike Ribeiro’s removal from the Nashville roster is Calle Jarnkrok, who has scored five points over his last five games. Jarnkrok’s ice time has increased from around 13-14 minutes per game early in the season to more than 18 minutes per game over that five-game stretch. Jarnkrok has also received over two minutes of power-play time over three of his last four games, so he’s one that could fill the void of those minutes that Ribeiro will give up. Having a sharpshooter linemate such as James Neal won’t hurt either.
7. With four assists on Friday and first-unit power-play time, I was surprised as to why T.J. Brodie isn’t having a solid season, with just 22 points and a minus-19 in 54 games.
But Mark Giordano hasn’t made a strong case for himself either. That’s no points in seven games and counting for Gio. I certainly expected much better than that off the heels of a 21-goal, 56-point season. With just six goals, Giordano is shooting far less, on pace for over a 20 per cent reduction in shots (212 last season to projected 160 this season).
8. The Stars have a bunch of intriguing options to fill the Jason Spezza (injured) power-play void with. In the past, Cody Eakin has soaked up top-unit time when Jamie Benn has been hurt but I don’t think he’s a natural replacement for Spezza. Instead, I’d be looking at Patrick Sharp who has had some big performances over the last month. They could also go with a two-defencemen look and use Julius Honka there.
I’d also expect to see zombie Jiri Hudler back in the lineup after being a ‘healthy’ scratch. I’m not sure what illness Hudler was stricken with earlier this season but it sucked his talent away like the Monstars challenged the Looney Tunes to game of puck.
9. An off-the-cuff ranking of my favourite lines this season:
1. Connor McDavid + anyone
2. Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak
3. Viktor Arvidsson – Ryan Johansen – Filip Forsberg
4. Nikolaj Ehlers – Mark Scheifele – Blake Wheeler (which we don’t see consistently enough)
5. Artemi Panarin – Artem Anisimov – Patrick Kane
6. Auston Matthews + anyone
7. Rickard Rakell – Ryan Getzlaf – Corey Perry
10. You can set your watch to Mark Stone’s second-half surge. He had three points Thursday night to give him 24 in his last 29 games. If he keeps this up, this will be the third straight year of dynamite second-half play.
11. It feels like just a few weeks ago we were lamenting how Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom were skating fewer minutes and that it was hurting their production. Backstrom is now among the league scoring leaders with 52 points in 52 games.
Meanwhile, Ovechkin is only five points back of Backstrom and five goals back from Sidney Crosby in the goal-scoring race. As always, Ovechkin is the greatest goal-scorer of our generation. We all need to embrace him while he is still at the height of his powers. He is always the favourite for the Rocket Richard trophy to the point where pre-season bets should be Ovechkin vs. The Field.
12. I thought we were done with Jason Pominville but he is on quite the run of effectiveness, having scored 13 points in his last 13 games. He is clicking on a new third line with the recently demoted Zach Parise and Erik Haula.
Pominville also skates on the Wild’s second power-play unit that is rapidly becoming their go-to unit. This bodes well for not only Pominville but also the scorching-hot group of Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu and Jared Spurgeon.
13. Alex Tuch is interesting as a former first-round pick. He scored at a solid rate in college and has performed okay in his first pro season with 11 goals and 22 points in 34 AHL games. That’s not the mastery of the AHL level I look for from prospects, however. He probably needs more seasoning before being ready to contribute fantasy relevant numbers. He could offer some value as a bottom-six winger with the ability to contribute some hits and PIM, however. He made his NHL debut on Saturday. The big (6-foot-4, 222 pounds) forward was held without a point in 14 minutes of ice time.
14. All three of these guys are hot right now: J.T. Miller 15 points in last 13 games, Andre Burakovsky 13 in his last 11, Elias Lindholm 15 in his last 14. Which one keeps it up the rest of the way? I’d just be throwing darts. I feel safest with Miller. And Miller is my pick for future seasons – probably the lowest upside of the three, but again I like how safe he is and his upside is still very good. And he’s also slightly better for SOG and hits.
15. Where would the Kings be without Jeff Carter? Certainly not in a playoff spot. Carter is now all alone in second in the goal-scoring race with 27. He’s not going to win that race but being in the hunt is awfully impressive. It’s been damn near a decade since Carter’s last (and only) 40-goal season. He’s currently on pace for 43 but I would suspect he falls just short.
16. Conor Sheary will be out 4-6 weeks with an upper-body injury. That’s a heartbreaker for those who enjoyed his run of elite play alongside Crosby. This does create an opening up front, which means an all new opportunity for you to raid the waiver wire. You might potentially see Bryan Rust jump back onto the top line on his off wing in replacement of Sheary, while Patric Hornqvist sticks on the right side but that wouldn’t be my top choice.
I prefer Jake Guentzel or Chris Kunitz in this spot. We all know how difficult it has been to find chemistry with Crosby, Kunitz has done it in the past. Especially with Evgeni Malkin out, finding some normalcy is this lineup should be paramount. That said, Guentzel is way more talented and I would love to see him get a crack.
17. The presence of both Philip Larsen and Troy Stecher has been holding Jordan Subban back. Subban has been lighting up the AHL (24 points in 37 games), but he could not enter the Canucks’ lineup during his recent weeklong call-up. I don’t expect Larsen to be a Canuck beyond this season, but it’s difficult to fathom a defense that regularly sends out both the 5-foot-10 Stecher and the 5-foot-9 Subban, despite the upside of both.
Defencemen like Shayne Gostisbehere, Stecher, and Subban all have tremendous fantasy upside but if they’re not scoring, they’re going to be on a shorter leash than their larger counterparts. Many NHL coaches are more interested in preventing goals than scoring goals.
18. The Isles signed Thomas Greiss to three year, $10 million extension. Welp. There goes my dream of Greiss getting dealt to a contender. On the other hand, the Islanders are on a roll so maybe he doesn’t need a trade to continue his fantasy relevance.
This deal should make him the undisputed starter for the Islanders. He’s 31, right around the age when we start to worry about wear and tear but he hasn’t seen too much action over the years. This may be similar to how Tim Thomas didn’t emerge as a starter until he was 32.
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A three-year deal is just right. This won’t necessarily set the market for this summer’s crop of UFA goaltenders but it should be considered a reference point. I wouldn’t be looking to give out much more than what Greiss just received for any of Budaj, Mason, Neuvirth, Ben Bishop, Ryan Miller, Jonathan Bernier, Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson, Anders Nilsson, Scott Darling, or Mike Condon. A couple of those guys will be hits. I am a big believer in Mason, Bishop and Elliott to name a few but I’m not breaking the bank for them.
19. My confidence in Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t wavered even one per cent. He’s an awesome goalie and he’s on one of the NHL’s teams of the future. So, to me he’s a definite ‘buy’ in keeper leagues. This obviously isn’t his year, so rest of season my expectations are low. He’s barely above .500 hockey and his SV% hovers around .910 so I’d expect that to continue. But this team will get better. When the Jets turn the corner it won’t be gradual and it won’t be with a big warning sign. It will just happen quickly and catch everyone off guard. Could be next year, or could be the year after that. I doubt it goes beyond that. But when this team turns the corner, Hellebuyck will be a Top 10 fantasy goalie easily.
20. Is Jimmy Vesey worth keeping over Anthony Duclair? Absolutely. I don’t trust Duclair, he’s on a weak team, he has young and skilled competition on the way, and his upside is limited. I think he could be a 30-goal, 60-point guy but ‘likely’ you’re looking at something more like 25 goals and 45 points – whereas, I’m not quite ready to peg Vesey yet. He’s on a deep team so he’s being brought along slowly, but in two or three years I think his upside is about 10 points higher than Duclair’s, and in the meantime I think he matches Duclair point for point (or better).
