Every Sunday this season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from the writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings” on DobberHockey.com.
1. So if you’re a Jake Allen owner, what should you do? You can certainly justify searching for other goaltending options through trades or the waiver wire. But for now, I’d move him to the bench and hope that the mental health break will do him some good. It’s not as if the Blues have Brian Elliott waiting in the wings like they’ve had in the past, so Allen will be given every opportunity to win the job back. Carter Hutton is a handcuff if you have room but he’s not starter material.
2. Tanner Pearson has scored seven goals and 11 points in 14 games since Tyler Toffoli got hurt. He’s playing bigger minutes with Toffoli out, including filling in on the top PP unit but only one of his 11 points during this run has come with the man advantage. He’s simply stepping his game up, which makes you wonder if he can continue it once Toffoli returns.
I am dubious that he can. Even without the power-play production, Pearson is shooting the puck way more with Toffoli out. He’s fired 41 SOG in these 14 games, nearly three per game. He was below two per game before the Toffoli injury.
Toffoli has been skating but has no timetable for his return. The initial prognosis was three to six weeks. We’re at four weeks now. My guess is we see him after the all-star break.
3. My goodness he is good. Viktor Arvidsson is the next Brad Marchand, he has all the makings. He can only be so fantasy relevant without top PP minutes and he only gets 1:37 per game but the story is the same for Marchand. Arvidsson is on pace for 20 goals and 51 points despite this deployment and I don’t think it’s his ceiling.
4. Tyler Myers’ injury has resulted in big minutes for Jacob Trouba, who I would think the Jets hang onto while Myers is sidelined. With 17 points in 34 games, Trouba is also on a 40-point pace, making the case for ownership in your league.
5. With John Carlson out a third consecutive game with a lower-body injury, Matt Niskanen recorded two power-play assists and three assists overall on Saturday. Niskanen has been receiving the first-unit power-play minutes, which have been helping him cash in with eight points in 11 games this month. I’ve never been a huge fan of Niskanen’s offense, but he’s a must-start while Carlson is out.
6. It’s been a long time since Ryan Strome’s great sophomore season in which he scored 50 points despite usage that’s worse than he’s seeing now.
The bottom line is that the bust label is apt for most people’s purposes. He is not useful in one-year settings and there’s no reason to draft him next year, unless he starts showing flashes we haven’t seen. In a keeper, he is either dragging you down or someone else’s problem by now. This is an instant gratification business. I’ll stick it out with a struggling superstar if they’ve established a standard of production and have good underlying metrics. Strome doesn’t qualify.
The only situation to take Strome in fantasy hockey is if you’ve got a keeper league team going nowhere and just need to take some home run cuts. And even then, you shouldn’t be giving up anything of value to get him.
7. Pavel Buchnevich now has 14 points in 14 games, but he also has six points in the four games since returning from a back injury. Not a bad NHL debut. In fact, dating back to before the injury, Buchnevich is on an eight-game points streak (12 points).
8. The Flames have mainly been rolling with Chad Johnson in January, although the seesaw could push back to Elliott soon. The Flames play three games in four nights next week (only four nights next week with the all-star break looming), so Elliott could start one and possibly even two games as the Flames tour Eastern Canada. Pay attention to your goalie starts over the shortened week. A start from a backup could stand out more!
9. P.K. Subban made his return to the lineup earlier than I had expected. There’s a window for Subban to produce big numbers while Roman Josi is out because he’s been playing second fiddle most of the season.
10. The issue (with Milan Lucic) isn’t really with this season. It’s how his contract ages, and I don’t suspect it will be pretty. Consider that Lucic is already leaning hugely on PP scoring to keep afloat. Half of his 28 points have come with the man advantage tying a career high of 14 PPP.
11. David Backes at $6M on the third line, Matt Beleskey at nearly $4M on the fourth line – who do the Bruins think they are, the Islanders? I kid, I kid. Boston could have a really dangerous lineup. Being able to play those guys in depth roles could be a huge advantage, assuming you have enough fire power on the top couple of lines, which they undoubtedly do. Of course, it’s not great for the fantasy value of Backes or Beleskey.
12. Frank Vatrano has been nothing but excellent, if not a little injury prone. He’s dominated the AHL, is only 22, and he’s shown 40-point ability already at the NHL level. He could turn out to be a good one, though I do have concerns about injuries.
13. Kevin Labanc has everything Vatrano has, except a year younger and he was actually drafted (not signed). Labanc dominated the AHL with 13 points in eight games so far, after posting 234 points in his last 133 OHL games.
14. Jason Zucker keeps on keepin’ on. With two more goals on Saturday, Zucker is up to five goals this month and 14 this season. In case you’re wondering if he’s due for a regression, his 15 per cent shooting accuracy is not the highest of his career. He shot nearly 17 per cent two seasons ago when he scored an unexpected 21 goals in just 51 games. He has a career 12 per cent rate, so a bit of regression should be expected anyway.
15. If you haven’t heard this spiel before, Jake Guentzel is an elite AHL scorer now showing flashes at the NHL level. Worth getting excited about.
I’m not sure there’s enough room for Guentzel to stick for the rest of the season. Matt Cullen is out for a couple more weeks and Scott Wilson may now be hurt. That could buy some breathing room but it’ll take injuries to keep him Guentzel around, even if he is productive.
16. I’ve got alarm bells going off in my head about Cam Ward. The Hurricanes have surged into playoff contention but Ward’s conceded three goals or more in five of his last six starts.
If you’ve got Ward, take solace that the Hurricanes are one of the league’s most diligent defensive teams. He remains what he has always been, a substandard goalie performing adequately. We are just seeing some more chinks in the armor.
17. I believe in Juuse Saros’ talent but I’m very much a “next year” kind of guy because of the politics of Pekka Rinne’s massive deal. Also, Rinne has been fine this year.
18. Mike Condon has performed tremendously for the Senators. Craig Anderson will return but has some rust to shake off. The Sens have asked a lot of their goaltenders this season. We know that Anderson can deliver but his play has been combustible. We’re reaching the point in the season where politics matter less than wins. If Anderson cannot deliver upon his return, Condon will surely be given a chance to keep them in the playoff hunt.
I’m hoping that Anderson returns and plays well so we can avoid the handcuff situation. There’s nothing worse than a goalie handcuff for a mediocre team.
19. No one necessarily has to leave for Alex Pietrangelo to get back to the 45-50-point range. It could happen simply through some good fortune. He plays enough minutes and has enough talent to do it even as a secondary guy.
If your question is more about whether we can count on Pietrangelo getting there every year once Kevin Shattenkirk leaves then I would squash that notion. I am firmly in the camp that Colton Parayko is the heir apparent. He’s got a bigger shot and is more dynamic as a puck rusher. He has a little bit of Brent Burns going for him, although no one is really in that stratosphere.
Last season, during the 10 games that Shattenkirk missed it was Pietrangelo, not Parayko, who filled the top PP minutes but Shattenkirk’s absence came all of three games into Parayko’s pro career. He is much further along and ready to take the No. 1 spot.
20. Marcus Johansson is on line two but plays on the top PP unit. My only concern with Johansson is burnout. He was perhaps the only hot Capital over the first few months of the season and his shooting percentage was through the roof. It’s still at 22.1% and likely regresses further. He’s also been shooting much less with just nine SOG in the past 11 games.
