The right is the power fist, the one you know is coming, the one that will knock you out and make headlines and be the talk of the town. But it’s the left, the surprise punch, that divides the complete competitor from the one-trick wonder.
For the Edmonton Oilers on draft day, the right is the No. 1 pick — Connor McDavid — and you’ve seen him coming a mile away. For the Toronto Maple Leafs, most scouts say, it’ll be Dylan Strome or Noah Hanifin (perhaps Mitch Marner), whichever one the Arizona Coyotes don’t pick at No. 3.
Hype and hoopla over June’s top-five picks will be large — heck, it already is — but it’s the bonus first-rounders, especially those acquired by the two Canadian clubs picking in the top five, that will be the source of more study, intrigue and unpredictability. Human nature dictates we gamble more easily with found money than earned money.
“Obviously there’s so much focus on the first couple of guys, and they are fantastic players,” Leafs president Brendan Shanahan said at Saturday’s lottery, “but it is a very deep draft.”
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Toronto’s assistant general manager, Kyle Dubas, believes there is no mystery in the top eight or so picks. The Maple Leafs are so confident they’re getting a blue-chipper with that first choice, they’ve spent relatively little energy sweating No. 4 overall.
“The focus for us, and really where we have to become a great organization is on the second pick, the Nashville pick, the one we got on the trade for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. We have to make a good pick and hit on that one,” Dubas told Sportsnet’s Brady & Walker Monday. “We know it’s going to be in the mid-20s.” (Root for a Blackhawks series victory, Leaf Nation.)
Dubas is not married to a specific position for that bonus first-rounder but emphasized that Toronto is not shooting for a safe prospect, instead trying pluck a Corey Perry (taken 28th in 2003) with the selection.
The Leafs and Oilers (should they use it; more later) want to knock those 20-something picks out of the park. They want a Claude Giroux, a Max Pacioretty, a Tukkaa Rask (don’t laugh), a Cory Schneider, a T.J. Oshie, or a Jordan Eberle — just a handful of active stars selected after the No. 19 spot. (Edmonton stole Eberle at the 22 slot in 2008.)
“That’s where myself and Mark Hunter have been spending a lot of our time — tracking those players within that range, and making sure that we find a player that fits our identity of where we’re going as an organization and we’re certain is going to be a big-time player for us,” Dubas said.
The late first-round knockout has been executed time and again. Let’s look at some examples from the past five drafts:
- In June 2014, Boston grabbed David Pastrnak at No. 25. Too good to be kept in the American Hockey League, the winger was called up, scored 27 points in 45 NHL games in the NHL, and was a top-six Bruins forward by season’s end.
- In 2013, Columbus drafted Marko Dano 27th; he scored 21 points in 35 games with the Blue Jackets this season and looks like a real player. Toronto, selecting six picks earlier, chose Frederik Gauthier.
- In 2012, Pittsburgh nabbed Olli Maatta at 22 and Los Angeles scooped Tanner Pearson at 30.
- In 2011, Anaheim’s playoff OT hero, Rickard Rakell — the most hated man in Winnipeg — lasted until the 30th pick. Toronto took Tyler Biggs at 22 and Stuart Percy at 25.
- And in 2010, tucked way behind Hall and Seguin in the crazy-deep Taylor-Tyler draft, at least five first-rounders picked between 19th and 30th — Nick Bjugstad (Florida), Riley Sheahan (Detroit), Kevin Hayes (Chicago), Evgeny Kuznetsov (Washington), Brock Nelson (New York Islanders) — are either 20-goal scorers already or on their way.
GMs are well aware of the late first-rounder’s value, which is precisely why Edmonton’s Craig MacTavish might be best served flipping his non-McDavid pick for a play-now asset, not unlike the way New Jersey surrendered its ninth pick (in a weaker 2013 draft) to Vancouver for Schneider — the exact type of No. 1 netminder Edmonton covets.
Back in January, MacTavish said he would be willing to deal his second first-round pick or early second-rounder, and those picks may yield a better return than, say, Eberle or Nail Yakupov. (Of course, now MacTavish will have to clear his bold moves with CEO Bob Nicholson.)
So while the casual fan focuses on the McDavids, Eichels, Hanifins and Stromes on June 26, fans of those clubs with a bonus first-round pick should be anticipate the second half of Round 1 with equal measure.
That’s where the steals, busts and big trades are more likely to happen.
Six teams secured an extra first-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft. Here is how they got them:
Edmonton traded David Perron to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Rob Klinkhammer and the Penguins’ first-rounder on Jan. 2.
Buffalo traded Thomas Vanek to the Islanders on Oct. 27, 2013, in exchange for Matt Moulson and both a first- and second-round pick in 2015 and this pick (which was conditional at the time of the trade). Since the Islanders elected to retain their 2014 first-round pick, it became a 2015 first-rounder. (Should the Islanders make a deeper playoff run than the Blues, Buffalo will use the Blues’ pick.)
Arizona sent Antoine Vermette to the Chicago Blackhawks on Feb. 28 in exchange for Klas Dahlbeck and this pick.
Toronto sent Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli to Nashville on Feb. 15 in exchange for Olli Jokinen, Brendan Leipsic and the Preds’ first-rounder.
Philadelphia traded Braydon Coburn to Tampa Bay on March 2 and received the Lightning’s first-round pick, a third-round pick and Radko Gudas. (The Lightning had an extra first-rounder, acquired from New York in the 2014 Martin St. Louis trade, to spare.)
Winnipeg acquired the lesser of Buffalo’s acquired first-round picks (from the Blues or the Islanders), Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford, Joel Armia and Brendan Lemieux for Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian and Jason Kasdorf. (Buffalo had acquired St. Louis’s 2015 first-round pick, Jaroslav Halak, Chris Stewart and William Carrier for Ryan Miller and Steve Ott in a 2014 deadline deal.)
