After a red-hot couple of months, 20-year-old Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers is turning heads this season. He’s part of one of the most potent trios in the NHL with rookie phenom Patrik Laine and young veteran Mark Scheifele.
Ehlersw has already matched his points total from last last season (38), and is on pace for 70 if he plays every game this year. That level of production paired with strong possession numbers makes Ehlers look like a budding star.
Thirty-eight points in 72 games is a strong debut for a teenager in the NHL, but this second-season scoring explosion goes to show how big of a difference there is between 19 and 20 years old.
What exactly has changed for Ehlers from one season to the next in terms of offence? Let’s take a look at his per-20-minute numbers at even strength relative to other forwards on the Jets.
Last season Ehlers was producing a lot of shot attempts, driving possession effectively, and was a very effective playmaker, but struggled to get his shots from dangerous areas on the ice. Those struggles led to Ehlers scoring on just nine percent of his shots on goal, despite possessing an extremely dangerous shot.
He was also taking just 32.3 percent of his shot attempts at even strength from the slot, but that has changed significantly this year. Now 47 percent of his shot attempts are coming from the slot, and 20.2 percent of those are from the inner-slot area.
The change in Ehlers’s ability to get shots off in dangerous areas has led to a 13.9-percent shooting percentage so far. That might be a bit unsustainable in today’s NHL, but it’s clear the quality of shot Ehlers has been able to take has had a very positive impact on his goal scoring.
When you combine that with other minor improvements to areas of his game where he was already strong—like attacking off the rush and finding teammates in the slot—Ehlers has become a much more versatile attacker.
The question going forward for the Jets will be whether this improvement from Ehlers has come mostly from his own development, or possibly more due to the added threat of Patrik Laine on his line, which opens up space for other attackers.
For the short term that doesn’t really matter—the Jets have a killer first line with three excellent players on it. But when it’s time to talk about contract extensions, that’s when the finer details need to be ironed out.
With Laine out with a concussion right now, the Jets have a chance to see what Ehlers can do with more attention from the defence, which is an oddly positive spin on losing your team’s top goal scorer.