Edmonton Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli shopped Nail Yakupov for months last season, but couldn’t find a great package for the 2012 first overall draft pick, and ended up sending him to the St. Louis Blues for an underwhelming return.
Without getting into how poorly the Oilers managed Yakupov from both a talent perspective and as an asset to trade, the question at this point is really whether Yakupov is a salvageable talent.
The market was undoubtedly sour on Yakupov, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all the general managers don’t believe in him as a player. But everyone could see the writing was on the wall in with Edmonton so his current trade value was low.
I looked at Yakupov last season in late March compared to his draft peers, and offensively he compares to them very well, though I want to expand a little at the statistics I was looking at then.
There is no area where Yakupov is far above and beyond league average offensively, but he is above average in most areas. He gets to the scoring chance area with regularity, he’s a surprisingly strong forechecker in terms of recovering loose pucks, even if he’s a little bit below average in stripping opponents of the puck in the offensive zone. Is above average entering the zone and he doesn’t like to dump the puck in, which drives success.
His main weakness offensively is that he isn’t a good passer, preferring to generate offence with his shot and by entering the zone with control.
While Yakupov is clearly an above league average overall contributor on offence, at least at even strength, the criticism of his game stems mostly from his defence, which is tough to argue against. Over the past three seasons, among forwards who have played at least 1,500 minutes, Yakupov ranks dead last in on-ice goals against per 60 minutes played relative to his teammates, and 311th of 338 forwards in on-ice shot attempts against per 60 minutes played relative to his teammates.
You can’t deny Yakupov is a weak defensive player, but I do wonder if his weakness there was exacerbated by playing in the bottom of a weak Edmonton roster on a consistent basis?
In terms of quality of teammates on the defensive side, Yakupov didn’t rate as playing with the weakest players in Edmonton, he had the fifth-worst set of teammates. In terms of shot attempts, he had the eighth-worst set of teammates. That seems to support the idea he is a hindrance on defence, however he’s far from the only effective forward to be weak without the puck.
Players such as Tyler Ennis, Joffrey Lupul, Thomas Vanek, James van Riemsdyk, and Phil Kessel have all had good to great careers while being consistent relative defensive drags on their teams. The problem may be that Yakupov isn’t good enough offensively to compensate for his defensive weakness, though I would think that a team that plays with impeccable structure like the Blues may find a way to mitigate it somewhat.
I think another consideration has to be the possibility that the Oilers were the absolute worst spot for Yakupov to develop his game. Like Justin Schultz, he needed insulation and structure as a young player to learn how to play away from the puck, something that has been lacking in Edmonton.
It may be too late for Yakupov to fix his game and become a solid NHL contributor, which is weird to say about a 23-year-old, but it’s more common than you would think. However, I have a feeling he is a very capable middle-six forward, he just needs a strong playmaking centre with a good two-way game, perhaps a perfect fit for Patrik Berglund on the Blues’ third line.
