The Boston Bruins locked up a key piece of their future Thursday by inking winger David Pastrnak to a six-year commitment worth $40 million.
The 21-year-old was selected 25th overall by the Bruins in 2014 and his breakout performance in 2016-17 resulted in him and the Bruins skipping a bridge deal and instead reaching a long-term agreement that will result in Pastrnak being an unrestricted free agent in 2023.
What’s most interesting about Pastrnak’s new deal is how it might affect young stars set to become restricted free agents in 2018.
Players like William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nikolaj Ehlers of the Winnipeg Jets, Max Domi of the Arizona Coyotes, Elias Lindholm of the Carolina Hurricanes, Robby Fabbri of the St. Louis Blues, Detroit Red Wings forwards Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha, plus Buffalo Sabres’ one-two punch Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart are in similar situations to the one Pastrnak found himself in last season—a first-round draft pick and pending RFA in his early-20s aiming to take his game to a new level and prove his worth to his team.
Of all those players Eichel is the most likely to out-earn Pastrnak and secure a contract closer to Leon Draisaitl’s or even Connor McDavid’s. However, all the other players could potentially enter that $6-7 million AAV range if they too can become a top-10 goal scorer or top-15 point producer like Pastrnak was in 2016-17.
Pastrnak had 10 goals and 27 points in his 46-game rookie campaign, scored 15 goals and had 26 points in 51 games as a sophomore, then exploded in his third year with 34 goals and 36 assists in 75 games—several players mentioned above also had slight statistical dips in their second NHL season.
Nylander, Ehlers and the others will need to hit that next level in the upcoming season the way Pastrnak did as a pending RFA if they wish to earn a similar contract to the budding Bruins star.
Locking Pastrnak in at less than $7 million per season could end up being a bargain if the reigning Zlata Hokejka Award winner (given to the best hockey player from the Czech Republic) can continue his upward trajectory.
A lucrative new contract will bring with it increased expectations, so with that in mind here are some players Pastrnak will be compared to in the coming years.
Vladimir Tarasenko (eight years, $60 million, $7.5 million cap hit)
Tarasenko signed his monster deal at age 23 after his third year in the NHL following a 2014-15 campaign that saw the Russian sniper score three more goals than Pastrnak did last season. Tarasenko also added seven points in six playoff games that year, which was slightly better than the four points in six games Pastrnak registered during the 2017 playoffs. Tarasenko consistently hovers around the 40-goal and 75-point mark. Bruins fans will be over the moon if Pastrnak can do the same.
Johnny Gaudreau (six years, $40.5 million, $6.75 million cap hit)
Gaudreau caused Flames fans some stress prior to the start of the 2016-17 season. In fact, he missed training camp entirely as he and his agent couldn’t come to terms with the team until two days prior to the start of the regular season. Players often underperform when they hold out for a long period of time and Gaudreau went from scoring 30 goals and 78 points in 79 games in 2015-16 to just 18 goals and 61 points in 72 games last season.
Brandon Saad (six years, $36 million, $6-million cap hit)
Saad has been a model of consistency throughout his young NHL career, though his ceiling is much lower than Pastrnak’s in terms of offensive output. Saad earned his deal after winning a second Stanley Cup with the Blackhawks in 2015. The talented two-way skilled power forward was an integral piece to that second Cup victory, finding tremendous success playing on a line with Jonathan Toews. Pastrnak plays his best hockey beside another perennial Selke nominee in Patrice Bergeron. Having centres like those two to rely on is invaluable for a young player.
Filip Forsberg (six years, $36 million, $6-million cap hit)
Forsberg has led his team in goals three years running and is slowly but surely establishing himself as the top Swedish forward in all of hockey. This contract was an absolute steal for a player of Forsberg’s calibre and it showed the genius of David Poile, the same GM that inked a world class blueliner like Roman Josi to a $4 million cap hit. Forsberg was 21 when he signed and he’ll be a 27-year-old UFA when it expires, just like Pastrnak.
Other notable cap comparables for Pastrnak…
— Sean Monahan: seven years, $44.625 million, $6.375-million cap hit
— Nathan MacKinnon: seven years, $44.1 million, $6.3-million cap hit
— Mark Scheifele: eight years, $49 million, $6.125-million cap hit
— Jonathan Huberdeau: six years, $35.4 million, $5.9-million cap hit
— Aleksander Barkov: six years, $35.4 million, $5.9-million cap hit
— Jonathan Drouin: six years, $33 million, $5.5-million cap hit
— Bo Horvat: six-year deal, $33 million, $5.5-million cap hit
— Nino Niederreiter: five years, $26.25 million, $5.25-million cap hit
Pastrnak wasn’t the only NHLer to get a significant contract Thursday. The Winnipeg Jets signed Bryan Little to a six-year, $31.746-million extension that comes with a $5.291-million cap hit. His new deal kicks in at the start of the 2018-19 season once the five-year, $23.5 million deal he’s currently on expires in July.
Little’s situation was different than Pastrnak’s, however, since he is turning 30 in November and this is likely to be the last long-term contract of his career.
Here are some other notable contracts that compare to Little’s extension…
— Milan Lucic: seven years, $42 million, $6-million cap hit
— Kyle Okposo: seven years, $42 million, $6-million cap hit
— Loui Eriksson: six years, $36 million, $6-million cap hit
— Brandon Dubinsky: six years, $35.1 million, $5.85-million cap hit
— T.J. Oshie: eight years, $46 million, $5.75-million cap hit
— Frans Nielsen: six years, $31.5 million, $5.25-million cap hit
— Derick Brassard: five years, $25 million, $5-million cap hit
— Nick Foligno: six years, $33 million, $5.5-million cap hit
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