People like repeating things. So many like feeling their thoughts are in sync with the consensus, rather than being in the minority.
In sports, this is too often the case. These days with the Maple Leafs, for example, two pieces of narrative are being repeated over and over as though they are truths.
Which may or may not make them true.
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The first is that in joining the Leafs, new coach Mike Babcock turned down a potentially better situation with Buffalo, a club supposedly teeming with prospects and about to welcome Boston University star Jack Eichel.
The second, linked to the first, is that the Leafs are going to be downright awful for three or four years before they can even think about winning more games than they lose.
Again, both of these statements could be true. Or one of them.
Or neither.
There are so many variables swirling around both the Buffalo and Toronto hockey situations that nothing is guaranteed for either team next season or in the near future.
But for something comparable, let’s have a look back at what happened in Alberta last season, shall we?
The Oilers, bottom feeders for so long, were supposedly poised for the big leap forward because they had so may good young players. The Flames, by contrast, were supposedly going to contend for Connor McDavid.
That was the consensus.
Instead, exactly the opposite happened. Edmonton landed McDavid, Calgary got to the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Now, as people assess the Leafs and Sabres, it’s like what just happened in Alberta never happened. Despite being completely wrong with the Oilers and Flames, so many feel they can accurately predict the immediate future of Toronto and Buffalo.
What we know is Calgary straightened out its management situation by hiring Brad Treliving and found Bob Hartley was a darn good coach. Edmonton, meanwhile, saw both the GM and coach that started last season fired.
The Flames organization solidified, and the team over-achieved. The Oilers organization struggled, and has since been all but blown up.
So how might that foreshadow what happens with the two worst teams in the east?
Buffalo fired coach Ted Nolan, and GM Tim Murray, while unquestionably in charge, is still proving himself. Right now, he has the rights to draft Eichel, a productive scoring winger in Tyler Ennis, a good centre prospect in Sam Reinhart, the question mark that is Evander Kane, erratic young defenceman Zach Bogosian, blueline prospects Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita (Alarm Clock) Zadorov, and Latvian forward Zemgus Girgensons.
Murray has pieces. Good pieces, but pieces.
He also just lost out on the coach he and owner Terry Pegula dearly wanted, has no goaltending and almost no proven, reliable veterans coming off a dreadful 54-point season.
Toronto, meanwhile, fired pretty much everybody other than president Brendan Shanahan and his two hand-picked assistants, Mark Hunter and Kyle Dubas. They now have Babock, a reliable but flawed sniper in Phil Kessel, a first line winger in James van Riemsdyk, veteran defencemen Dion Phaneuf and Roman Polak, experienced goalies Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer, and youngsters like Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner and William Nylander.
Shanahan, in other words, has pieces. Some good pieces, and he’s added the coach he wanted. The Leafs will pick fourth in next month’s very deep draft, two slots after Buffalo, and will likely choose between Boston College blueliner Noah Hanifin, Erie centre Dylan Strome and London centre Mitch Marner.
Stacked up this way, it doesn’t really look like Buffalo has this massive leg up on the Leafs. You might even say the Leafs are in a better position. Depends on your perspective.
More important, however, it really will depend on two things.
Ownership and organization.
Buffalo’s Terry Pegula and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment in Toronto both have lots of cash, but neither has a reputation for having the first clue on how to develop an NHL winner or the ability to stick to a plan. Both are at least partly distracted by the fact they own other pro sports franchises.
Organizationally, meanwhile, these are two clubs with very poor reputations for assessing and development talent.
Other than a coach, Buffalo’s organization is basically set. By comparison, Toronto’s is a blank slate, or at least about half a blank slate, with lots of questions about how this organization will even function going forward.
Without a GM since Dave Nonis was fired, the Leafs also fired most of the scouting staff and the minor league coaching group. Without a GM in place, they’ve now hired Babcock, plus they added two scouts on Wednesday in OHL executives Jim Paliafito and Lindsay Hofford.
The Leafs may not hire a GM by the draft, although they’re interested in Los Angeles assistant GM Mike Futa, former Washington GM George McPhee, New York Rangers assistant GM Jeff Gorton and Tampa Bay assistant GM Julien BriseBois.
Shanahan has said repeatedly he’s looking for somebody to “fit” alongside himself, Hunter, Dubas, and now Babcock. But fit in what way?
Before being fired, Nonis made several trades before the NHL deadline. He was essentially freed from other duties to do so, and at one point spent a week in Nashville pursuing a deal that ultimately landed the Leafs another first round pick and prospect Brendan Leipsic in exchange for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. That pick is now No. 24 in the draft order.
So is that the role somebody is to fit? A GM focussed on dealing with other teams and making trades while others handle the minor system, hire and fire scouts and supervise the hiring of coaches throughout the system? A stripped down version of the traditional GM role, in other words?
The short answer appears to be yes, although it’s also possible Hunter could end up with the GM title in addition to his current player development duties. Babcock certainly sounded on Thursday that he would be quite happy if the organization moved forward with he, Shanahan and Hunter pulling the strings.
The Leafs, you should know, have tried this before. When Ken Dryden was hired as president in 1997, he looked for a GM – David Poile turned him down – and ultimately appointed himself GM to oversee a group of executives that included Bill Watters, Mike Smith and Anders Hedberg. In short order, Hedberg and Smith were at each other’s throats and Smith was eventually dismissed.
That led to Pat Quinn adding the GM title to his head coach responsibilities. Eventually, under Dryden and Quinn, the Leafs made it to the Final Four twice.
Now we’ve got this new setup. It might work, or it could be that after some thrashing about, the front office will rationalize itself and a clear and undisputed hockey boss will emerge. But with Shanahan holding all the power and Babcock the power of a $50 million contract, there’s not much room for someone else, a GM, to emerge as a strong leader.
So we’ll watch and see how this works out. But if the Leafs are going to prove to have a better future than Buffalo, it will be at least partially because a new efficient organization emerges from the ruins of the old Nonis/Brian Burke structure, one that offers clarity and direction as opposed to confusion, and one that works as well or better than the more traditional structure already in place with the Sabres.
But hey, it’s May. The playoffs are still on, and there’s lots of time for Toronto to get all the people it wants in place, with a clear and understandable chain of authority.
Still, Buffalo’s already got that, although it’s hardly an organization that is the envy of the NHL. Under Pegula, the team has become worse and worse, the Pat LaFontaine hiring/departure was a debacle, Nolan didn’t work out again and Murray is still cutting his teeth. Some say the Sabres got the short end of the Kane deal with Winnipeg, but we’ll see about that.
Both teams were among the NHL’s worst this season and have a lot of questions to be answered. Today, you can’t accurately say either is absolutely on the right track, and in Toronto, Babcock has predicted “pain” for the near future. Both teams have owners who appear to be committed, but don’t have a track record of winning.
How they build and develop their respective organizations will determine whether the pieces they already have turn into anything at all, and whether Babcock made the right choice or blew it by choosing not to shuffle off to Buffalo.
