To try and figure out what ails the Edmonton Oilers this October, let’s travel back in time — and 300 kilometres down Highway 2 to Calgary — where two seasons ago we looked at a Flames team and used the word “unsustainable.”
Remember those Flames and the controversy they became a few months after beating Vancouver in Round 1 of the 2015 playoffs? It was a Canucks team, we now know, that was in serious decline, and Calgary was beaten soundly in Round 2 by Anaheim.
More than half of the young Flames roster had enjoyed career seasons in 2014-15. They had suffered precious few injuries, the goaltending tandem of Jonas Hiller and Karri Ramo had overperformed, and Jiri Hudler somehow became a 76-point player. Many believed there was simply no way the Flames could do it over again the next year, that there had been too much good fortune.
“Unsustainable!” they cried, and they were right. Hudler’s production fell off 41 points the next season and he was traded, the goaltending fell back to the mean, and the Flames missed the playoffs in 2016.
So, what does this have to do with the Edmonton Oilers?
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Well, the 2016-17 Oilers made up 33 points from the season before, a massive jump in the standings that came on the backs of career seasons from five key players: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Patrick Maroon, Oscar Klefbom and Mark Letestu.
You can add goalie Cam Talbot to that list. In his second season as an NHL starter he had career bests in games played (73), goals against average (2.39) and saves percentage (.919).
Rookies Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev and Matt Benning stepped into the NHL and were solid contributors — which of course means this is their sophomore seasons. Caggiula has been ineffective throughout camp and is now on injured reserve. Slepyshev missed camp with an injury, while Benning has struggled after being given extra minutes and was a healthy scratch Saturday against Ottawa.
Meanwhile, Edmonton lost a top-four defenceman in Andrej Sekera until Christmas after he blew out his ACL in the playoff run last spring, a position GM Peter Chiarelli chose not to upgrade over the summer. And the club downgraded offensively when it traded 25-goal winger Jordan Eberle for 15-goal man Ryan Strome in a salary dump.
And here’s the kicker: After years of injury trouble in Edmonton, 11 core players played 78 games or more in 2016-17 — with six remaining healthy for all 82 games. Already Caggiula and Slepyshev have been hurt, Draisaitl has missed a game with a concussion, and Sekera is out long term.
The short story is, like Calgary, the Oilers were banking on more growth from within. So, how is that working for them?
Four games into the season, only five Oilers have scored a goal — McDavid, Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson and Kris Russell — and two of those are stay-at-home defencemen.
“The D have outscored the wingers 2-1, if you count Leon as a winger,” said Oilers coach Todd McLellan. “We’re not getting enough from the wingers or our bottom six, and if you’re not scoring you can’t be giving up six (goals per night).”
Over the weekend, McLellan reminded his players that they’ve eaten up just eight of 164 available points this season. Look at it that way, and the Oilers have plenty of time to straighten things out. Look at it through the lens of the 2015-16 Flames, and you get a different view.
So which is it for this Oilers team? Well, we’d say they were a more legitimate club in their breakout season than the Flames were in theirs.
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Edmonton had half the career years in their bump season that Calgary had, and Talbot is far more legit than the Ramo-Hiller goaltending tandem, which currently resides in Jokerit (KHL) and Biel (Swiss League) respectively. And the Flames didn’t have Connor McDavid.
But Edmonton has had disappointment on the wings this fall, where Jesse Puljujarvi couldn’t make the grade at camp. Meanwhile, Strome, Jussi Jokinen, Jujhar Khaira, Milan Lucic and Maroon have started slowly.
Talbot’s numbers this season (3.96, .880) speak for themselves, though it’s hard to fault the goalie behind the team defence displayed by Edmonton thus far. However, their 1-3 record is indisputable and, after a game Tuesday against Carolina, Edmonton hits the road for a trip through Chicago, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Yikes!
Edmonton is tied for 28th in points, its penalty kill is the worst in the league and the power play ranks 26th.
Chiarelli wanted to wait until nearer the trade deadline to augment this lineup. He may have to act more quickly, if McLellan can’t coach his way out this early season slide.
Or else, the 2017-18 Edmonton Oilers might just become the 2015-16 Calgary Flames.
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