With nearly two weeks of the 2015-16 season in the books, some poolies are patting themselves on the back for having assembled teams that look unstoppable, while others are likely worried enough to think about pushing the panic button. But what should you do?
Although it’s important to remember no team has played even 10 per cent of its full schedule, we’re starting to enter territory where things are falling into place for many players, so be sure to use resources such as Frozen Pool to pay attention to data like PP time per game and most frequent linemates and Goalie Post for updates on which netminders are starting both ends of back-to-backs.
Time to get down to business – the “buy low” and “sell high” players for this week.
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FOUR BUY-LOW PLAYERS
Jaden Schwartz – Last season, Schwartz very quietly posted the 20th-best points per game scoring rate among forwards who played in 75-plus games, ahead of the likes of Max Pacioretty, Logan Couture, and Anze Kopitar, not to mention a sell-high from last week – Jonathan Toews. Chances are Schwartz will top 70 points in 2015-16, in which case the window to get him for less than his true value is closing fast.
Michael Hutchinson – You can’t be faulted for asking how this is different than last season, when Hutchinson played well enough through December to essentially become the 1A goalie in Winnipeg, only to lose the job back to Ondrej Pavelec after the new year. The key is not only does Hutchinson have the added motivation to succeed in 2015-16 because he’s a restricted free agent this summer, but Pavelec has only one more year on his deal, making it easier for the Jets to finally push him to the side in favour of Hutchinson. Long story short – Hutchinson could find himself the true No. 1 goalie for Winnipeg, at least until phenom Connor Hellebuyck takes the reins in a year or two.
Pavel Datsyuk – Yes, he won’t be back for roughly another month or so; and he’ll still be an injury risk for the rest of the season. But when healthy, Datsyuk is a point-per-game player even at age 37. And in today’s NHL, that’s rare enough for you to tolerate the wait, and the risk. Now is the perfect time to capitalize. Datsyuk’s return is still far enough away for you to pry him away from a shortsighted GM whose team might be struggling.
Matt Niskanen – After Niskanen saw his production drop by 50 per cent last season, many figured his 2013-14 point total of 46 was inflated by his desire to land a big contract. But while I wrote last week about the departure of Mike Green contributing to John Carlson’s falsely inflated value, someone who might truly benefit is Niskanen, who should see his PP time at least double from just 1:03 per game last season. The real Niskanen is much closer to what we saw in 2013-14 than 2014-15, so act quickly to get him while his value is still artificially low.
FOUR SELL-HIGH PLAYERS
Mark Stone – Although many were skeptical that Stone could pick up where he left off last season (47 points in his final 46 regular season games), he’s actually started even stronger. But it’s called sell high for a reason, and if history is any indication it could be downhill from here. The key is Stone was 22 years old last season and since 2000-01, only two forwards (Brad Boyes, Michael Ryder) tallied 60-plus points as a rookie age 22 or older. Both of them scored fewer points in their second seasons and only Boyes ever topped his rookie total (and he did that just once). Stone might prove to be an exception to this older rookie curse, but if this data is of enough concern to you, then be sure to look at selling.
Rick Nash – What’s in a name? Apparently a lot, if you’re Rick Nash. His 108 combined points over the past two seasons put him an unremarkable 64th among NHL forwards in that time, yet Nash somehow still was being drafted in the top 20 overall in Yahoo leagues for 2015-16. Coincidently, those 108 points tied him with teammate Mats Zuccarello, who was drafted roughly 150 spots later. Through the weekend Zuccarello had more goals (three to zero) and points (three to one) than Nash and was averaging more PP time per game (2:30 to 2:09). The time might be now to unload Nash.
Alex Pietrangelo – Most poolies still think of Pietrangelo as a legitimate threat for 50-plus points, but those days are over. Not only has Pietrangelo averaged about 30 seconds more SH time per game than PP time in each of the past two seasons, but if we look at the 19 rearguards who received at least 24:00 of ice time per game in 2014-15, only two averaged less than Pietrangelo’s 2:26 in PP time – low-scoring Jonas Brodin, and T.J. Brodie, who posted only 41 total points after starting the season with 21 in his first 25 games. Use Pietrangelo as a trade chip now, before the reality of his lower production becomes apparent to everyone.
Kyle Okposo – It looks like the Islanders have started to prepare themselves for life after Okposo, who’s set to be a UFA this summer. Okposo isn’t playing with John Tavares at five-on-five, which will lead to a big drop in production – just ask Matt Moulson and P.A. Parenteau. The good news is Okposo has more talent and a higher fantasy profile than those two did. Between that and Okposo’s solid start, you’ll be able to trade him for some value before his wheels fall off.
