First off, tough break – literally – that Jaden Schwartz (a buy low last week) will be out 12 weeks with a broken ankle suffered at practice Friday. But that just makes him an even better buy low! Target him soon in keeper leagues, or in early January for one-year leagues to get a nice boost when he returns.
Of general buy/sell significance this week is whether any 18- or 19-year old junior-eligible players on your fantasy rosters get sent back to junior hockey. If so, that’s usually the end of their NHL season and in one-year leagues you’ll need to find immediate help via trade or the waiver wire. But for teens who stick with their NHL clubs and are not yet owned in your league, watch them carefully because this type of commitment might signify the team is ready to give them a more fantasy-impacting role.
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Onto the specific “buy low” or “sell high” players for this week….
Four Buy Low Players
Justin Williams – An overlooked winner from the return of Nicklas Backstrom is the ageless Williams. That’s because Williams will now be centered by either Backstrom (as he currently is) or burgeoning star Evgeny Kuznetsov – a “can’t lose” proposition for Williams and his fantasy owners. While Williams most likely won’t reach 60 points due to not being on the potent Capitals PP1, it’s now very realistic that he’ll get 50-plus for the first time since 2010-11. Even if he’s on the waiver wire in your league, he’s probably an upgrade over a player on your current roster.
Tomas Hertl – Like Matt Niskanen last week, Hertl’s value is artificially low due to him underperforming in 2014-15. But whatever caused Hertl to slump last season appears to be in the past, as he’s starting to look more like the 20-year-old rookie who posted 25 points in 37 games in 2013-14. And with Logan Couture sidelined for what could be another month, Hertl should see increased ice time to help him try to secure a top-six spot with the Sharks for the rest of the season. If he’s on your waiver wire, he’s worth a grab for 45-to-50-point upside.
Scott Hartnell – Not every player succeeds on teams coached by the hardnosed John Tortorella – just ask the Sedins! But Hartnell’s combination of grit, skill, and team-first attitude should endear him to Tortorella. Before last week’s coaching change, Hartnell seemed destined for a drop from last year’s 60 points to perhaps 50 if he was lucky. With Torts now at the helm, Hartnell should see his situation improve; and the good news is you can point to his current stats and get him for a bargain before he shines for the new-look Blue Jackets.
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Not only is Vasilevskiy, who’s technically still on IR but back practicing with Tampa this week, considered a No. 1 goalie in the making, but Ben Bishop has looked shaky to start the 2015-16 campaign despite his wins. And that’s on top of a 2014-15 where Bishop’s SV% stood only 19th among netminders who played 40-plus games. Plus, Bishop will be an expensive UFA after next season, when Tampa also will be focused on re-signing Victor Hedman. The end result could be Tampa cutting bait with Bishop during this campaign to maximize their return. If you have a goalie roster spot to spare, use it on Vasilevskiy and cross your fingers.
Four Sell High Players
Aaron Ekblad – He projects to be a cornerstone in keepers, but for one-year points-only leagues Ekblad is a tempting sell-high candidate. Just like we discussed with Mark Stone last week history suggests Ekblad will do worse this season than as a rookie. After all, in the past 30 years there were only four rearguards who posted 39 or more points as a teen in their first season, and each of them scored fewer points the following campaign. If you’re in a one-year league, consider flipping Ekblad for a more proven asset.
Valtteri Filppula – Despite playing five more games, Filppula scored 10 fewer points (48) last season than 2013-14 (58). And even those 48 points are misleading, since he ended with just three in his final 17 games. With his ice time down by nearly 10 per cent versus last year, it’s clear Tampa simply has better scoring options. Not only will Filppula post fewer than 40 points this season, but he remains a drag in leagues counting Hits and SOG. If you can somehow trade him, do it now. Otherwise, he’s a safe drop for your next waiver wire pick-up.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Potting 23 goals elevated OEL from solid fantasy performer to coveted fantasy blueline anchor, since the last time a defenceman lit the lamp that often was 2008-09. The difference is back then it was Mike Green on a Capitals squad that scored 268 goals, versus just 165 tallied by Arizona last season. As talented as OEL is, his goal scoring prowess has led to him being overvalued in one-year points-only leagues, as when the dust settles he’ll be hard pressed to muster much more than 40 points on an Arizona team that, despite early firepower, will still likely struggle to put pucks in the net.
Jonathan Quick – Now that Quick has put together a few decent games, it’s a perfect chance to trade him in one-year leagues. The reality is Quick plays his best in the post-season, which doesn’t help poolies. Quick’s regular season numbers from 2014-15 don’t merit him having been the third goalie drafted, on average, in Yahoo leagues for 2015-16; after all, his SV% was .918 (17th among goaltenders who played 40-plus games), and despite playing the second-most games among netminders, Quick won only half those contests and faced just the sixth-most shots. If you trade him for a solid skater plus a lesser-name goalie who is still valuable (Roberto Luongo, Jaroslav Halak) you’ll end up helping your team for 2015-16.
