There always seems to be something preventing Evander Kane from ascending to fantasy superstardom. Whether it’s nagging injuries keeping him out of the lineup or off-ice distractions adversely affecting his reputation, circumstances cause the ultra-talented Winnipeg Jet-turned-Buffalo Sabre power forward to confound and disappoint fans and fantasy owners. Still, he has vast potential to be a consistent, big-time top-six point producer.
Despite drafting Kane fourth overall in the 2009 NHL Draft and reaping more than 100 goals from him before his 24th birthday, the Jets decided the one-time 30-goal scorer did not fit into their long-term plans and shipped him to the rebuilding Buffalo Sabres last February. A season-ending shoulder injury prevented him from suiting up for Buffalo last season, but Kane enters this year as an intriguing bounce-back candidate who is slated to play alongside the talented Ryan O’Reilly and the respectable Tyler Ennis on the Sabres’ top line.
The combination of a change of scenery and an opportunity to skate alongside a gifted playmaking center like O’Reilly may be all Kane needs to shake off his disappointing days in Winnipeg and become a trusted option in fantasy circles…
If he can stay on the ice, that is. More than anything else, Kane’s fantasy production has been hampered by his inability to stay healthy in recent seasons. He saw action in just 100 out of 162 games over that past two years and has played in a full slate of NHL games just once in his six-year career – the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Excluding that year, Kane has averaged just 62 games played per season in the NHL.
Kane is quite valuable in leagues that count hits, penalty minutes and shots on-goal. Just two years ago, he registered 250 shots, 173 hits and 66 PIM in 63 games for Winnipeg. However, Kane is less desirable in leagues where those categories do not factor into the scoring. He has not eclipsed 20 goals in a season since 2011-12, and the talented power forward has managed a mere 14 power play points over the past three seasons combined. Kane produces pretty well at even strength, but not nearly enough to overcome his lack of production on the man advantage.
Kane is currently being drafted 103rd overall on average in Yahoo leagues. He is the 28th left winger off the board on average. Detroit’s Gustav Nyquist is being selected right before Kane, and St. Louis’s Jaden Schwartz and Tampa Bay’s Ondrej Palat are being selected right after him.
THREE TAKEAWAYS
1. Kane is a winger to reach for in rotisserie and multi-category formats. In leagues where points make up the majority of categories, let someone else have him and opt for Schwartz or Palat instead. They are poised to score more and be greater factors on the power play than Kane.
2. Kane’s tremendous upside means nothing unless he can prove he can stay healthy. Kane is quite the volatile fantasy option heading into the 2015-16 season. His struggles to stay healthy coupled with his middling production in the last few years make him a risky pick where he’s being selected in the majority of fantasy drafts.
3. No one really knows how much Kane will score in Buffalo. The Sabres forward is capable of far more than what he has offered his owners, and the change of scenery helps, but poolies expecting much more than 50 points are expecting a bit much from a player who has only exceeded that total once in his career.
Fantasy owners should (and most certainly will) appreciate the hits and PIM Kane offers in rotisserie and multi-category formats, and they should be willing to reach a round (or even two) early for him to ensure the enigmatic power forward finds his way onto their team. His upside is greater than many of the options available after the first 100 players are off the board, but the risks that come with owning Kane are enough to make poolies think twice before acquiring him in points-based formats.
Projection – Evander Kane
50 points
Floor: 35 points
Ceiling: 65 points
Mike Schmidt is a writer at Dobberhockey. Check out his Looking Ahead column every Friday.
