Connor McDavid is the best hockey prospect since Sidney Crosby. There have been plenty of “bests since Crosby” over the years, but this time it’s for real. McDavid may even prove to be better than Crosby, in time. With that level of hype where do you draft McDavid in fantasy pools this season?
To answer, let’s first see where McDavid is currently being drafted in fantasy leagues. It seems the public is bullish on him this season, as he’s the 33rd player drafted in Yahoo! leagues and the seventh pure centreman off the board. He’s getting picked ahead of proven scorers such as Nicklas Backstrom and Tyler Johnson.
Backstrom and Johnson are proven 70-point players, so McDavid’s ranking presumes he’s good for at least that amount. With only centre eligibility, McDavid will have to produce at least 70 points to be worth taking where the public has been picking him.
The last rookie to clear the 70-point barrier was Patrick Kane in 2007-08 when he scored 72 points after going first overall. There isn’t nearly as much offence in the NHL now as there was in 2007-08, so it will take a special effort for McDavid to hit the mark.
But there is great reason for optimism. The Oilers’ revamped front office and coaching staff should get more out of a roster loaded with excellent young talent, particularly at forward. Just two years ago, Nathan MacKinnon won the Calder Trophy after scoring 63 points in 82 games, while skating sheltered minutes on an Avalanche club that had a new head coach and not much of a blueline. You have to figure McDavid can replicate that type of performance.
McDavid’s 2.55 points per game in the OHL last season is the highest draft-year rate we’ve seen since Crosby, which helps lend credence to all the hype. Gabriel Desjardins wrote the book on league equivalent scoring rates and found that on average players jumping from the OHL to NHL keep about 30 per cent of their scoring rate.
Assuming McDavid has an average outcome, he projects to score 63 points over 82 games. Of course, McDavid isn’t your average player. Steve Burtch took a deeper dive and projected a 77-point total over an 82-game rookie season.
It’s difficult to pin down just where McDavid will finish on this curve, but anything less than 70 points would be a disappointment to fantasy owners. He’s the most hyped prospect since Crosby and that comes with expectations that would be unfair to any other player.
Projection – Connor McDavid
75 points
Floor: 60 points
Ceiling: 90 points
Picking McDavid with the 33rd selection in your draft is fine. The fact Backstrom and Johnson are going after him in most drafts says more about how undervalued they are than how overvalued McDavid is.
If anything, McDavid is undervalued considering lower-ceiling point producers like Jonathan Toews and Anze Kopitar are going ahead of him in drafts.
Fantasy hockey is supposed to be fun and what’s more fun than taking a big swing for the fences? There’s no bigger homerun potential in this year’s draft than McDavid. Don’t be afraid to take a cut anywhere outside the top 25.
Steve is a Managing Editor at DobberHockey. Give him a follow on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw. And as the perfect supplement to your Sportsnet Fantasy Guide check out Dobber’s 10th annual Fantasy Guide here.
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