Dion Phaneuf has been a polarizing player in the NHL.
After building some great momentum early in his career with progressive point totals of 49, 50 and 60 with the Calgary Flames, Phaneuf started to fall out of favour. He went to Toronto amidst much fanfare and started out fairly well, averaging 0.55 points per game in his first three full seasons. Over the past two years however, his production has dropped off to 0.4 points per game.
There is much debate as to Phaneuf’s value to the Toronto Maple Leafs and, as is often the case with club’s defencemen, he has turned into a whipping boy of sorts. Phaneuf is a decent defenceman who is overpaid and miscast as a number one, which places unrealistic expectations on him that he can never meet.
He could excel on another team if given the right role. That’s real life though and what we are looking at here is his fantasy value…
Phaneuf’s fantasy stock, much like his real life stock has been dropping. His 29 points last season put him 54th amongst NHL defensemen and although some of this low total can be attributed to the fact that he played only 70 games, his prorated total would still only be 34, good for 33rd in the league. The public perception of Dion Phaneuf has never been lower. In reality, though, Phaneuf still brings a lot to the table.
If you’re in a points only league then Phaneuf’s value may be pretty limited, but if you are in a rotisserie style head-to-head league then Phaneuf is a guy you should target. If your league counts PIMs, hits or both then Phaneuf’s value shoots up drastically. A common mistake made by novice fantasy hockey GMs is that they place too much emphasis on points and not enough emphasis on the other categories and drafting a guy like Phaneuf can help you take advantage of their oversight.
For example, in a Yahoo! standard league that counts power play points, plus/minus, PIM, and shots as well as goals and assists, Phaneuf can provide more value than a player like Niklas Kronwall despite scoring 15 fewer points. The reason for this is that Phaneuf contributes PIM at an elite level and he also shoots considerably more than Kronwall.
In leagues that have multiple categories like this it is sometimes hard to determine what matters (how do I know if a 29 point, 100PIM player is worth more than a 44 point 40 PIM player?). There are tools out there like Fantasy Hockey Geek that can help with this. Using some complex math and algorithms, Fantasy Hockey Geek actually calculates that Phaneuf was the 60th most valuable player in a Yahoo! standard league last season while Kronwall was 79th.
Dion’s points might be headed in the wrong direction and the team he plays for may be doing the same thing, but make no mistake about it: Dion Phaneuf is still very fantasy relevant, particularly if your league counts PIMs/Hits.
Some other considerations on Dion Phaneuf:
1. Dion faced some really tough competition last season: The advanced stats show that Phaneuf had the toughest quality of competition out of any Leaf and it wasn’t close. He was regularly slotted up against the other teams’ top lines.
To make matters worse, only 42 per cent of his zone starts were in the offensive zone. While we don’t have any reason to think that this will necessarily change in 2015-16 one thing is for sure – it can’t get much worse. With a new coach in town and a potential trade over the course of the season there is definitely a chance that Phaneuf’s deployment will change and given his tough minutes in 2014-15 any change in the upcoming campaign can only help his fantasy numbers.
2. Phaneuf is potential trade bait: Playing tough minutes on a lowly Leaf time has really hampered Phaneuf’s fantasy value. They are treating him like a No. 1 stud defenceman when the reality is he is probably better off being deployed as a second pairing, top power play guy. If he were to get traded to a team that allowed him to step into such a role, he would blossom in a similar way to how Larry Murphy exceled when he left the Blue and White
3. His shooting percentage: Last season Phaneuf shot a career low 2.2 per cent. While you might be inclined to take this as another bad sign, it actually might be a good one. Shooting percentages can be somewhat random in hockey and this could be an indicative that Dion simply had a hard luck season. Had he simply shot his career average of 5.9 per cent, he would have netted eight goals instead of three, bringing his point total to 34 in 70 games (40 point pace)
Projection: 38 points (nine goals) 100 PIMs, 180 hits
Floor: 30 points
Ceiling: 48 points (may require a trade to reach this potential)
Phaneuf’s 45-50 point days are probably behind him as he enters the back 9 of his career for a less than impressive Maple Leafs squad. His reduced point totals might have him flying a bit below the radar though so you can probably get him later on in your draft and take advantage of Dion’s still great contribution in other categories (most notably hits and PIMs).
If Phaneuf’s point total remains in the 30-35 range his value will still outperform his current average draft position (over 143rd overall) but if he happens to get his point total back into the 40s he will be provide excellent D2 value despite being drafted so late.
Terry Campkin is a writer at DobberHockey. Check out his Geek of the Week column every Wednesday.
