EDMONTON – The Edmonton Oilers rebuild has come full circle. This season, in Year 5, they finished with 62 points — exactly the same number of points they accumulated in Year 1, back in 2010-11.
Edmonton is, statistically, the worst team in the National Hockey League by 10 points per season since Daryl Katz acquired the club, according to a study by the Edmonton Journal. The Oilers finished 28th this season, after finishes of 28th, 24th, 29th, 30th and 30th. One would think the pharmaceutical magnate requires a higher level of performance from his Rexall executives, but GM Craig MacTavish and right-hand men Kevin Lowe and Scott Howson are expected at remain at the helm in Edmonton, despite some serious flaws in recognizing positional weaknesses and evaluating talent.
I’ve been watching the team all season long, and the flaws are obvious. What aren’t so obvious are the signs of progress — and there are more than a few. Here are five things we learned about Edmonton after another futile season in Oil Country:
1. GM MacTavish screwed up when it came to the centre ice position, goaltending, and the hiring of Dallas Eakins.
Opening this season with two legitimate NHL centres in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Boyd Gordon was a major miscalculation by MacTavish. He should have signed Derek Roy in July, rather than trading for him in late December. Rookie Leon Draisaitl, who will be a very good NHL centre one day, never should have been fed to the wolves as a 19-year-old in the NHL.
In goal, people across the league predicted the tandem of Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth wouldn’t be good enough. It wasn’t. Fasth will leave as a UFA, and unless MacTavish upgrades enough to render Scrivens a backup, next season will be just as lean.
Finally, Eakins was perhaps the biggest mistake MacTavish has made in his short tenure as GM. Ironically, Eakins said he was sold a bill of goods by the Oilers, when in reality he was the one who was all talk. MacTavish was fooled by the suave Eakins, who was not ready to be an NHL head coach.
2. No matter how many high-end youngsters you draft, if you don’t surround then with competent players over the age of 24, you can’t win.
It’s a lesson we’ve learned yet again. Poor drafting between the years of 2000-2008 have left the Oilers’ roster devoid of that mid- to late-20s homegrown player. Then when they did hit on players like Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene or Andrew Cogliano, they were foolishly moved out. Acquisitions like Benoit Pouliot, Matt Hendricks, Boyd Gordon and Mark Fayne have helped in this regard, but 28th place is 28th place. Edmonton needs more good 25-plus players.
Nikita Nikitin was an absolute fail this season, just as Anton Belov and Denis Grebeshkov were last year. Andrew Ference is a third pairing defenceman at best. MacTavish has done well acquiring depth forwards, but he needs a couple of impact veterans on defence —- and in net -— if this team is going to get better faster.
3. The farm system is catching up, and players are indeed developing.
Anton Lander emerged as someone who could be the third-line centre here for some time. Nail Yakupov’s all-around game improved miles this season. Nugent-Hopkins was the Oilers MVP, in our eyes, taking a major step in his 21-year-old season.
On defence, 6-foot-3 Oscar Klefbom emerged as a top-four defenceman for many, many years to come. Add Martin Marincin, who still needs to improve at 6-foot-4, Fayne (6-foot-3), perhaps David Musil (6-foot-4), and Darnell Nurse (6-foot-6, who turns pro next season), and the Oilers defence has some size and heft now. They still need a top pairing, however. Justin Schultz has been a disappointment in that regard.
4. A team that has been rightfully accused of rushing young talent may have done its best development with head coach Todd Nelson.
Several players’ games solidified under Nelson, where they’d looked lost under Eakins. Having said that, the Oilers would be foolish not to at least investigate the coaching waters this summer and interview a list of proven veteran NHL coaches that could include Ken Hitchcock, Todd McLellan, Dan Bylsma, Mike Babcock and others.
Nelson is deserving of the post, but our prediction is that he will be asked to work underneath Hitchcock or McLellan behind the Oilers bench next season.
5. The fault for the Oilers’ malaise falls on ownership and management —- not on the leading players like Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins and Co.
Personnel failures at goalie and centre have crippled this group and led to a losing culture.
Scrivens’ work in Game 82 at Vancouver was a microcosm of a team that can score five goals on the road and still lose. With substandard goaltending, you can’t tell how bad your team is, or how good it might be. It undermines everything. Every defenceman looks worse when every mistake ends up in the net; when every turnover by a forward shows up on the scoreboard.
Yes, the defence needs work too. But with a goalie that gives this team confidence, the roster they have now will have increased confidence and play better. Without a goalie, it’s 28th place again next year in Edmonton.
You’re up, Craig.
