The NHL Expansion Draft is rightly presented as a challenge to the NHL’s 30 existing clubs, but it’s also an opportunity for a few teams to offload problem contracts on to the league’s newest franchise.
The Vegas Golden Knights should be a better team than previous expansion teams thanks to a more generous draft process, but even so they will need to play a long game, ramping up over several years before challenging established clubs.
In the meantime, though, Vegas must hit certain minimum spending thresholds and ice a team that can play. That means GM George McPhee should be open to at least a few deals in which the Golden Knights receive prospects and draft picks in exchange for taking on other teams’ cap headaches.
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That generosity will not be boundless.
The term on some contracts would be a non-starter, such as in the case of L.A.’s Dustin Brown and the five years left on his deal. Other teams just have too many good young players to pass up. Washington could try to pawn off Brooks Orpik, but the sweetener would need to be rich to make up for passing on Nate Schmidt or Philipp Grubauer.
Additionally, those more expensive slots would ideally go to player-types who will be hard to find via the expansion draft. Versatile players, capable of playing many minutes and in multiple situations, would obviously be preferable. Such players would also need to either be long-term fits, or have trade potential within the next two seasons.
We’ve identified four candidates who check off those boxes.
Zach Bogosian, Buffalo Sabres
Bogosian is one of the NHL’s young veterans. He doesn’t turn 27 until mid-July, but he’s already logged more than 500 games in the league and played three seasons with the now-extinct Atlanta Thrashers. With three seasons left on his current contract, he would be a long-term gamble on the Vegas blue line.
Although Bogosian fell to fourth on the Sabres depth chart this year, he does have history logging major minutes in the past, especially at even strength and on the penalty kill. He brings size, mobility and a right shot to the blue line; it’s hard to find all of those qualities in one package.
However, he’s been less than the sum of his tools for the Sabres. Since arriving in Buffalo in February 2015, he has the worst on-ice goal numbers of any Sabres defender and his shot metrics have been middle-of-the-pack:
(Brief aside: If you ever wondered why analytics types like Cody Franson, wonder no longer.)
Vegas would be banking that his shot numbers tell the true story here, and going in knowing that they’re overpaying a No. 4 even-strength defenceman with some value on special teams. The Sabres, bogged down with bad contracts like Bogosian, Tyler Ennis and Matt Moulson, should certainly be willing to pay the Golden Knights for the privilege.
Benoit Pouliot, Edmonton Oilers
Unlike Bogosian, Pouliot would be half player, half trade asset for the Golden Knights. He has two years left on his current $4 million AAV contract, and the hope would be to get him back on track in Year 1 and then flip him at the trade deadline in Year 2.
It’s a more realistic possibility than many might think. Pouliot had 33 goals in just over 100 games for the Oilers between 2014-16, the first time in his career he was really used in an offensive role.
For seven seasons, between 2009 and 2016, Pouliot was the NHL’s hidden gem in terms of scoring efficiency, averaging two points for every hour of 5-on-5 ice time he played. That’s the 56th-best number (a little below an average first-line forward) in the NHL over that period, ahead of players like Claude Giroux, Jarome Iginla, Zach Parise and myriad of other more highly regarded skaters.
The Oilers have made it clear they don’t see him in that vein and, with new deals coming to Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, would love to free up some money and would surely incentivize such a selection by Vegas, especially since it would prevent the embarrassing possibility of losing Griffin Reinhart for nothing.
The Golden Knights, in return, would take on a big, fast skater who can kill penalties and might explode offensively in the right situation.
Matt Stajan, Calgary Flames
There aren’t going to be a lot of decent centres available in the expansion draft. Stajan isn’t ideal for the role of third-line pivot at this point in his career, but Vegas has limited options. Besides, like our other skaters, the Calgary pivot can contribute in multiple roles, giving the Knights much-needed versatility.
At least as importantly, he’s in the final season of his current contract. Centres are also notoriously difficult to find at the trade deadline, which is why Arizona was able to command a first-round pick and more for Martin Hanzal, and why Toronto paid a second-rounder for fourth-line pivot Brian Boyle.
Vegas would take Stajan knowing they plan to flip him at the trade deadline after 50-odd games of steady play down the middle.
Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche
McPhee knows how good Varlamov can be; his Capitals team drafted, developed and ultimately traded the goaltender to Colorado for first- and second-round draft picks.
That doesn’t change the fact that he’s coming off a miserable 6-17-0, .898 save-percentage performance, or that his cap hit is a hefty $5.9 million. The Knights have other goalie options, so they aren’t likely to take on such a pricey reclamation project without a substantial bribe coming the other way.
Whether or not the rebuilding Avs are willing to pay such a bribe will come down to how quickly the club’s management thinks it can compete again and how badly it wants Varlamov off the roster. If their interest is high enough, the plan for Varlamov would be the same as the plan for Pouliot: One year of recovery and re-establishing his reputation, followed by a trade for younger assets in Year 2.
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