A big part of winning a fantasy league is hitting on that later draft pick that performs like a stud. This year, it’s Jakub Voracek and Vladimir Tarasenko. Last year, it was Joe Pavelski.
The first part of this article will look at what these breakout skaters have in common. The second part of this article will focus on some players who fit this profile that could have a career performance next year, and thus can be acquired through a trade.
Sign up for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play today! It’s a matchup game with new games released every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. The first pairing released Monday was for the Detroit-Nashville game on Saturday. I would lock in James Neal over Henrik Zetterberg given Zetterberg’s recent injury issues.
Shots, everybody
In the 2013-2014 season, there were 122 forwards who played at least 70 games but had fewer than two shots on goal per game. Of those 122 forwards, two (1.6 percent of the sample) had at least 60 points (Joe Thornton and T.J. Oshie). Conversely, there were 55 forwards who played at least 70 games and had at least 2.5 shots on goal per game. Of those 55 forwards, 35 (63.6 percent of the sample) had at least 60 points. Shots lead to goals, and shots lead to rebounds, which lead to assists.
Ice time
It’s fairly intuitive, but ice time is critical to amassing points. Last year, there were 89 forwards who played at least 70 games but had under 1,200 total minutes of ice time. None of those 89 forwards cracked the 50-point barrier. On the other hand, there were 75 forwards who played at least 70 games and had over 1,400 total minutes of ice time. Of those 75 forwards, 54 of them cracked 50 points (72 percent), and 36 of the 75 forwards cracked 60 points (48 percent).
Age
Of all the players who were top-20 on ESPN’s Player Rater last year, the youngest was Tyler Seguin at 22 years old, and the oldest was Chris Kunitz at 34 years old. This year, the youngest player in the top-20 is Tarasenko at 23 years old, and the oldest are Pavelski and Rick Nash at 30 years old. So for those looking for Alex Galchenyuk to be a fantasy game-breaker next year, or Patrick Marleau to have that one final magical season, I would hesitate.
With those parameters in mind, here are some players to look for in keeper or dynasty leagues to have an elite fantasy season next year. They are in the order I would try to trade for them.
Gabriel Landeskog (Colorado)
He’s already had a very good season, tallying 26 goals and 65 points last year. He’s only 22 years old but has over 250 NHL games under his belt. With the way Colorado has performed this year, a bit of his lustre has worn off.
Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon are superb together: the Avalanche are a 52.1 percent possession team with the duo on the ice. With just one of them on the ice, that number falls under 45 percent. With Landeskog’s across-the-board fantasy contributions, his line mate, and fitting the given parameters, he’s a great trade option for next year.
Brendan Gallagher (Montreal)
Gallagher will be in his Age 23 season next year, so that’s a good start. He has also cracked at least 17 minutes of ice time in 24 of his 59 games this year, so that aspect is trending up. He’s also taking 2.72 shots per game for his career, and 2.92 per game this season.
Whether it’s playing with Max Pacioretty, or Alex Galchenyuk, it seems Gallagher is locked into that top-six forward role. He’s also 11th in the NHL in individual scoring chances at five-on-five, wedged between James van Riemsdyk and Filip Forsberg. It shouldn’t be surprising if Gallagher pushes for a 30-goal season next year.
Cam Atkinson (Columbus)
Atkinson was a late bloomer, as last year was his Age 24 season but the first in which he played at least 40 games. Next year will be his Age 26 season, but for two years in a row now he’s averaged more than 2.7 shots per game. He’s also over 17 minutes in ice time per game this year.
When Atkinson plays with Johansen, the duo averages 2.91 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and nearly a shot attempt per minute. Those numbers aren’t far off from what Nick Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin produce, and a much better conversion rate than the Sedins. The Atkinson-Johansen sample is still small, but if they can continue to develop chemistry, Atkinson could bust out next year.
Atkinson is just one of a possible four points this week on Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool, a weekly fantasy game on sportsnet.ca. Given Columbus has four games, and two of them are against New Jersey and Buffalo, Atkinson is a solid play this week.
Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, War On Ice, and Behind The Net