It’s getting to that point of the fantasy hockey season where decisions about rosters have to be made. There’s not much time to keep waiting for players to turn it around; by the end of next week, many teams will be half way through their season. That doesn’t mean drop Matt Duchene, but decisions have to be made on guys like Paul Stastny, Thomas Vanek, and David Krejci.
Now is the time to start assessing roster weaknesses, and addressing them.
Here are some players to target in trades, either by selling high on them, or buying low on others.
Sell High
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary – Left Wing)
There’s not much doubt that Johnny Gaudreau has been one of the three most impactful rookies so far this year, along with Filip Forsberg and Aaron Ekblad. With 30 points in 37 games, it’s not hard to see why.
There’s a problem with the production that Gaudreau has provided so far with regards to his outlook for the rest of the year: he’s second among all NHL forwards in on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five at 12.21 per cent (minimum 400 minutes played). For reference on how high that is, the only forward who finished with a higher mark last year was Ryan Getzlaf, and no other forward was above 12 per cent.
I wrote about Gaudreau a few weeks ago in this regard, but with six goals in his last four games, now is the time to sell.
Jakub Voracek (Philadelphia – Right Wing)
For readers that may be unfamiliar, there is a statistic called Individual Percentage Points (IPP). That is the percentage of goals that a player is on the ice for that he also has a point on (either the goal or an assist, from Hockey Analysis).
Last year, there were 110 forwards in the NHL with at least 1000 minutes of five-on-five ice time. Of those 110 forwards, three of them were above 85 per cent IPP.
Jakub Voracek is on pace to play over 1100 five-on-five minutes. So far this year, Voracek has tallied a point on 89.7 per cent of the goals he’s been on the ice for (only Taylor Hall had a higher percentage last year). Either Voracek will prove to be a huge anomaly for the rest of the year, or his production will slow down a fair amount.
Considering he’s a top-5 skater in fantasy, those who own him could probably name their price in a trade. That’s how holes are filled on fantasy teams.
Cody Franson (Toronto – Defence)
Last year, it was Dion Phaneuf who had a very strong start to the year (and this year, too); he was a plus-13 with 15 points in 39 games going into January. From that point on, Phaneuf had 16 points in 41 games, but was a minus-11.
That’s important to remember, because Cody Franson has 22 points in 35 games so far this year, and a plus-7 rating to go along with it. While his plus/minus might not take a hit, his point production will: Franson’s on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five is 12.09 per cent, and that’s over 3 per cent higher than Sidney Crosby.
Either Franson is the most potent offensive defenceman alive today, or his production will decline quite a bit the rest of the season because he’s been a bit lucky.
Speaking of Toronto, the next set of players were released today for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play here on Sportsnet.ca. It’s a matchup game that features sets of players facing each other the upcoming Saturday, and today they were players from the Toronto/Winnipeg game this weekend. The best matchup for Winnipeg seems to be Blake Wheeler against Nazem Kadri. I would lean Wheeler there.
Buy Low
Eric Staal (Carolina – Centre)
Carolina is finally starting to get healthy, as Eric’s brother Jordan played his first game of the season on Monday night. It’s easy to look at the standings and say that Carolina is a bad team, but they are in the top half of the NHL in puck possession (as measured by five-on-five shot attempts), and that has largely been with a shoddy lineup.
Eric Staal is on pace for across-the-board career lows since his rookie season. His on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five right now sits at 4.87 per cent, or 174th out of 179 forwards. For reference, from 2011-2014, Staal had an on-ice shooting percentage of 8.76 per cent.
With Carolina getting healthy, now is the time to buy very low on Eric Staal.
Semyon Varlamov (Colorado – Goalie)
It’s been a very down year for Varlamov, especially considering the Vezina-calibre season he had last year. Part of it has been due to injuries, and part of it due to his team regressing from their spectacular season last year. All the same, Varlamov was probably drafted as a top-10 goalie in many leagues, and he’s not even inside ESPN’s top-50.
Since Semyon Varlamov came into the league (2008), there have been 33 goalies that have at least 7500 five-on-five minutes to their name. Varlamov ranked seventh in save percentage, nestled between Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne.
So far this year, Varlamov is 36th out of 42 goalies with at least 500 minutes played. While the goals against average might not be great because of his team, Varlamov’s save percentage should rebound as long as he stays healthy. He can probably be had for peanuts in a trade right now (well, maybe cashews).
Don’t forget to check out the Sportsnet Fantasy Hockey Pool here on Sportsnet.ca. It’s a salary cap game where new rosters are submitted every week, with prizes ranging for $1-million to a paid trip to a regular season game to gift cards.
*Stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, ESPN, and NHL.com.
