July 1 is rapidly approaching and with it, the NHL’s free agent season. As with most years, the 2015 crop lacks elite talent, with the top names available being largely of the good-but-not-great caliber. Still, there are players available at every position who can help a new team.
Here we look at the ones likely to attract the most attention and the most dollars from prospective bidders.
Justin Williams
He’s at the top of the list and has been great value for a long time. He’s currently wrapping up a four-year, $3.65 million contract after previously playing on a five-year, $3.5 million deal.
Williams, a 33-year-old winger coming off a 41-point campaign, checks off a few boxes. He’s long been an analytics darling, with his teams consistently out-shooting the opposition by a ridiculous margin when he’s on the ice, regardless of how difficult his assignments are. He’s also a proven playoff performer who won the Conn Smythe in 2014.
A multi-year deal somewhere in the $5 million range seems probable, with the value dependent on term. Williams is easily worth $5 million now and should rebound offensively outside Los Angeles, but he may only have two or three years left at that level.
Mike Ribeiro
Ribeiro is one of a couple successful reclamation projects on this list, having just completed a one-year, $1.05 million contract after previously being bought out of a deal by the Coyotes.
Ribeiro’s on-ice abilities are obvious. The 35-year-old posted 62 points as the No. 1 centre for the Predators last season. Off-ice issues complicate matters, though; Ribeiro is currently a defendant in a civil suit that alleges sexual assault, which he denies.
It’s difficult to find a comparable for Ribeiro, given the uniqueness of the situation. With Ribeiro’s recent buyout, his age and the serious allegations against him, he’s unlikely to get term on what might be his last big contract. Something in the $5 million range over two or three years seems likely, and if he plays the way he did last year he’ll provide good on-ice value for the money.
He rejected the Predators’ last offer, which was reportedly for close to $6 million over two years.
Paul Martin
Just completed a five-year contract with a $5 million cap hit, which he got the last time he went to unrestricted free agency. The key difference is that he was 29 then and he’s 34 now.
Martin was the Penguins’ No. 2 defenceman last year, taking on massive minutes at even strength and on the penalty kill and playing a bit role on the power play. He’s equally adept on the right or left side of the ice and can be thrown to opposition wolves with a reasonable chance of coming out on top.
Martin’s former partner, Brooks Orpik, was at about the same point in his career and playing similar minutes when he signed a five-year deal at a $5.5 million cap hit with the Washington Capitals off the free agent market. Martin’s likely to see something in that range; he’s a better puckmover (and better overall) but doesn’t get the bone-rattler premium. As a top-pair defender, he’s worth it, but any team giving him term is accepting a couple of years at the end of the deal where he’s overpaid.
Mike Green
His last two contracts have been big and the one he gets in this year’s free agent period is not likely to be any different. His last deal paid him a shade over $6 million annually with a three-year term; the contract before that was for four years at a $5.25 million cap hit. Some of the luster has come off since that four-year deal, but Green’s improved bargaining position as a UFA makes up for it.
Green was Washington’s No. 5 defenceman last year, averaging just over 19 minutes per game. He has two big points in his favour, though. First, he has a history of being able to play more minutes at even strength and whichever team signs him would likely slot him in to the top four. Second, he’s a big-time power play presence and a right-shooting defenceman who put up 45 points last season.
A good comparable for Green is current teammate Matt Niskanen, a fellow right-shooting rearguard who got a seven-year deal at a $5.75 million cap hit last summer. Given the contract Green is coming off of, he may even come in at a slightly higher price point, in the $6 million range. That’s probably more than he’s worth, but it’s hard to find right-shooting offensive defencemen.
