This season has been a big change for Henrik and Daniel Sedin. The twins, who were the faces of Vancouver sports since about 2004, have begun to take a back seat to younger players such as Bo Horvat, and an emerging star in Brock Boeser.
At 37 years old, it makes sense that the Sedins are finally having their ice time scaled back a little bit. The two have been playing more than 18 minutes per game the past two seasons and are down to about 14:30 this season.
With their ice time scaled back, the Sedins are both on pace for 48 points, similar production to what they averaged last season despite losing about four minutes of ice time per game.
That would seem to suggest new coach Travis Green’s choice to limit the Sedins’ minutes has allowed them to play a bit better when they are out there, maximizing their talent while preserving their health and giving big opportunities to good young players.
Then again, Daniel Sedin isn’t getting killed by a low shooting percentage as he was last season, which in turn helps Henrik’s assist numbers, so there’s some natural regression going on. We can dive into the data on the Sedins over the past three seasons and figure out if anything has changed.
There were a few weird things that happened with the Sedins last year, the oddest being that Daniel very rarely produced scoring chances, especially high danger ones, and became very similar to Henrik with a focus on passing. It was the first year of his career we have data for that he produced scoring chances at a lower rate than team average.
Henrik, meanwhile, shot the puck a tiny bit more, but struggled to produce scoring chances for his teammates at his usual high rate through playmaking. He was still above team average, but only barely. His season ended up looking OK because he shot the lights out on his relatively few shot attempts.
That brings us to this season, where both Sedins seem to be in their natural roles again, and have seen their pro-rated offensive totals make huge recoveries.
Daniel is producing more scoring chances than he has over the previous two seasons and they are coming from closer to the net as well.
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Henrik is hitting more passes to the slot than the previous two years, and both players are creating scoring chances for their teammates at the highest rates we’ve seen in a while. They’re far above team average for forwards, despite the fact the Canucks’ average as a team has increased quite a bit this season.
However, with Horvat and Brandon Sutter each suffering injuries recently, the Canucks’ centre depth has suddenly been eaten away, and both Sedins have seen their ice time rise to last season’s level the past few games. The question is whether they can sustain this level of performance while also being forced to eat big minutes once again.
How much pressure there actually is on the Sedins to replicate their success with bigger minutes likely depends on the internal expectations for the Canucks. Travis Green’s strategies and the emergence of Boeser have given the Canucks modest improvement over last year in even strength production: about a one per cent rise in score-adjusted Corsi and two per cent rise in expected goals for percentage. But this is clearly still a team that’s building towards something.
Making the playoffs might be fun, and a hot start to the season made that seem somewhat realistic in a more open Western Conference, but the Canucks have cooled off lately at 4-5-1 in their past 10, and are now three points out of a wild card spot.
Three points isn’t a lot to make up, but we’re not talking about a Cup contender here either. What I wonder when looking at this rebound of a season with the Sedins is if they’re able to continue their good play all season, the Canucks’ retool might be ahead of where most people assumed. If Green is able to extend the Sedins’ careers by scaling down their minutes, this team might be a lot more difficult for the NHL to deal with in the coming seasons.
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