Are the Buffalo Sabres going to be this year’s pre-season predictions pearl — the one many flock to as a dark horse they’ll either flaunt or forget in April?
Although the Atlantic Division is top heavy, there might be a route for a team (hopefully) on the rise like Buffalo to squeeze into a wild-card spot. Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto will be difficult to unseat, but could fourth place for Buffalo be enough?
A lot will need to break right for the Sabres to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in seven years. The most obvious might be goaltender Carter Hutton, signed in free agency to be their starter despite never playing half a season’s worth of games, being able to get within even 11 points of the .931 save percentage he posted last season.
Heck, that may not be enough — for all his faults as a No. 1, Robin Lehner posted a .920 save percentage in 2016-17 and the Sabres didn’t sniff the post-season.
Goal scoring is the area most in need of year-over-year improvement. Buffalo scored the fewest goals in 2017-18 and stands as the only team that hasn’t scored 200 times in any of the past five seasons. The Sabres have been at the bottom of the league in this stat three times since 2013-14.
Enter Jeff Skinner, a three-time 30-goal man coming off a season in which he shot two percentage points below his career average and still scored 24 times — a total that would have been one off the team lead in Buffalo. Only 11 NHLers have scored more goals than Skinner over the past three seasons, but to Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour, the decision to trade the sniper out was a statement move.
Now Skinner is walking into the best situation of his career. If he lands on the top line, as expected, Jack Eichel will be the most talented centre Skinner has ever been beside.
“He’s a pretty good player,” Skinner told the Buffalo News after an informal Wednesday skate with his new teammates. “I’ve seen him quite a bit from an opposing team point of view. It’s going to be a lot nicer to be on his team.”
The Sabres desperately need their top line to be consistent and a regular driver of offence to get them over the hump. Starting with a star talent like Eichel is a good position to be in, but not every skater can pair with a player on that level — sometimes others just can’t keep up with the pace, as we’ve seen with previous Eichel linemates.
Per NaturalStatTrick.com, Skinner was fifth league-wide in rush attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season which, on paper, complements Eichel’s explosive speed. Skinner was also 15th in rebounds created per 60 at 5-on-5 so as reason goes, if these two have a high number of rush chances, get to the net ahead of backcheckers and behind defenders, and generate numerous rebounds, the high-danger chances will flow.
And they both love to shoot — Skinner finished fifth and Eichel 33rd in shots per 60 at even strength last season.
Another factor could actually come from the back end — for the first time, Eichel will have an elite talent capable of not only getting the puck to the forwards in stride, but creating rushes of his own.
“He’s going to have Rasmus Dahlin getting him the puck,” the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington said on Prime Time Sports this summer. “One of the problems was Jack had to take the puck and do it himself…Rasmus Dahlin changes everything.”
Of course, the value of Ryan O’Reilly‘s underrated two-way play and playmaking ability will be noticeable in his absence, and the weight of that will be put on Patrik Berglund and rookie Casey Mittelstadt, the latter of whom could end up as the No. 2 centre. The eighth overall pick in 2017 led the WJC in scoring last winter and scored five points in six games with the Sabres at the end of the season.
Between them and wingers Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart and newly acquired Conor Sheary, at least passable secondary scoring is reasonable to expect. As long as that top line duo becomes as explosive as it could be, complemented by Dahlin’s talents, the Sabres could see a big uptick in an area they’ve severely lacked.
So while we’re left wondering where Carolina, 24th in offence last season, will find goals without Skinner, optimism abounds in Buffalo with the acquisition. As it all comes together in training camp, the Sabres may not have only gotten the Hurricanes’ best goal scorer, but they may unseat them as the premier pre-season darling.
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