Heading into the NHL’s trade deadline, the market is loaded with top-line wingers like Evander Kane and Rick Nash, along with slightly less likely to be traded players with term like Mike Hoffman and Max Pacioretty. But one area we haven’t heard much about is the centre position.
For the most part, it’s unlikely to see any top two-line centres moved at the deadline in any year, especially since Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris have already been moved for each other.
Two centres whose names have come up a bit are Tomas Plekanec, on an expiring contract, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has term left at a reasonable cap hit of $3.1 million. Both players occupy the same role on their team: checking centre on the third line. However it’s doubtful that the same team would be interested in both.
The reason for that comes down to age and contract. Pageau would be a player to acquire for a long time, and as such would likely cost much more, while Plekanec is a pure rental. Ignoring contract status though, what is each player worth?
Neither of them will be acquired for their offence, so let’s look specifically at each player’s defensive impact compared to their team’s average.
Despite Carey Price’s poor numbers this year, the Montreal Canadiens’ shot locations against are relatively good, and while Plekanec is on the ice, they’re even better.
The Canadiens have fewer rebounds recovered by opponents when Plekanec is on as well, but that isn’t a direct cause of him being on those loose pucks, he recovers less than average, it’s due to fewer rebounds occurring overall.
Plekanec is heavily involved in puck battles in the defensive zone, but his win rate is nothing that special, about right on team average. The extra involvement matters though, even lost puck battles are better than not engaging and hoping things work out.
The biggest weakness Plekanec has defensively is how many passes to the slot occur when he’s on the ice, it’s more than team average, which could have something to do with the level of competition he plays, but both at even strength and shorthanded, Plekanec can be victimized by passing. That could be due to losing a bit of his typical short-burst acceleration as he’s aged, so it’s tougher for him to stay in lanes than it used to be.
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Pageau isn’t having as strong of a defensive year as Plekanec is, with the Ottawa Senators giving up more high-danger chances and passes to the slot while he’s on the ice, meaning their goaltenders are facing higher shot quality when the defensive centre is on.
Like the Canadiens with Plekanec, the Senators see fewer rebounds recovered by opponents when Pageau is on the ice, but it’s not necessarily him personally recovering them.
Where Pageau does stand out from the pack is his puck battle involvement and win rate. He’s engaged in almost two more puck battles in the defensive zone per hour, and has a win rate two per cent better than team average. That allows for more breakouts while he’s on the ice, something that would likely make a bigger impact on a team that was better in transition than the Senators.
Aside from play without the puck, one thing you want from your checking centre is good puck management. It’s all well and good to recover the puck from the opponent, but if you immediately turn it over it’s all for naught.
Looking at turnover rates you need to account for team structure and position, so we’ll look at both player’s turnover rates in each zone and overall relative to their teammates at the same position. Turnover rates are inverted so that positive numbers are good.
With the puck, Pageau is quite a bit safer than Plekanec, boasting not only better turnover rates relative to team average, but superior numbers overall despite the Senators being very turnover happy.
Plekanec is a bit better in the neutral zone, which is important, but that’s where the fewest plays occur, and he’s actually worse than team average in the defensive zone, forcing more time defending than he needs to.
Pageau’s offensive zone turnover rate being far better than team average is a bit misleading in a way because he’s struggled to create offence this year and has been playing a little too safe. If you’re always making the safe play you won’t turn the puck over as much, but you also won’t accomplish much.
One thing to keep in mind with Pageau, since any team acquiring him would be getting him for the long haul, he appears to be having an off season, meaning his value at the moment might be lower on the trade market than the actual value of the player. If a team is in need of a long-term solution on the third line, this would be a great time to snatch him up and benefit for less than he would usually fetch.
For Plekanec, he’s been having a quietly strong season despite the chaos surrounding him in Montreal and the general issues that come with age. He can’t seem to score goals anymore, but he’s also been startlingly unlucky when shooting. Any team acquiring him can expect to see strong defensive play, and if his shooting percentage regresses, they could see a surprise influx of offence as a bonus.
If you’re looking to improve for just this season, Plekanec is the better bet, though long-term Pageau is going to be the better player.
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