For more than a year, Leafs Nation (and, to be fair, innumerable columnists, reporters and any sort of writers who are remotely connected to hockey in Toronto… like this one!) have been quietly watching to see if the man with one Stanley Cup, two other finals appearances and back-to-back Olympic gold medals on his immaculate resume will relocate to the 416. To see if he’ll ride in on his horse (probably named “Big Believer,” but that’s just personal speculation) to deliver long-suffering Toronto fans from the agony that is, well, basically every season at this point.
And heck, Babcock might well decide Toronto is where he wants to be. But that won’t assure anything, not even a playoff spot—even the happiest of beginnings tend to end in despair in this city. Further, there are a few reasons why the Maple Leafs might not want to just hand over a blank cheque if Babcock expresses interest in the job.
We’ll leave the reasoning here and let you judge for yourself.
1. Money and fame only go so far. Really, what can the Toronto job offer Babcock that he simply can’t get anywhere else? The Red Wings have more talent, and more success, and more prospects in the pipeline. Other cities that will woo him have better core players, more cap flexibility and more easily retooled rosters. The two obvious Toronto attractions (clearly we can’t know everything that will go into his decision…) are the highest possible salary, and the greatest possible profile. But think of the times the Leafs have paid huge money to high-profile free agents for whom coming to Toronto was a lucrative chance to up both their bank account and their brand. Hasn’t always worked out so well. And if the Leafs are truly committed to a long-term rebuild, a coach with those motives might not be the best man for the job.
2. Babcock has never rebuilt anything. It doesn’t mean he can’t, of course, but he’s never even had to try. With the exception of two years coaching in Anaheim (in which he took over a non-playoff roster, rode a scorching hot J-S Giguere to the Stanley Cup final, then missed the playoffs again the following year), Babcock’s professional coaching career has consisted of getting maximum effort from teams with established leaders who showcase great talent and superior work ethic. It’s not as though Babcock showed up in Detroit in 2005 and taught Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Brendan Shanahan and Chris Chelios how to win. And it’s not like Team Canada has ever wanted for experience, motivation or leadership in the dressing room. The fact is, as great as Babcock is at getting the most out of his players and working within a system, we don’t know how he responds to total failure. After his lone playoff miss in Anaheim, he took off for a powerhouse before he had to retool and try again, and he’s never missed the playoffs since.
3. He has no connection to the current Leafs. Admittedly, this might be a positive—because much of the Leafs’ current roster may be jettisoned, and it might be good to have a coach with no ties to anyone. But is there any indication that Babcock likes anything about this roster? He’s never coached any of them, save for Joffrey Lupul’s rookie season in Anaheim and, unlike several other cities where there are Babcock-Save-Us movements afoot (Pittsburgh, San Jose, Boston, St. Louis, perhaps even Montreal should its playoff run go sour), there are no Team Canada alumni in the dressing room, ready to help the new coach implement his system and win the hearts and minds of potential skeptics.
4. Whose team would it be then? One potential reason for Babcock to leave Detroit would be for more control over hockey operations. He’s said publicly that, while he has lots of input into personnel moves in Detroit, the ultimate roster is Ken Holland’s call. And with Holland one ring away from a full fist of them, it’s hard to argue with his authority in those situations. In Buffalo (or on a similar rebuilding team) Babcock could theoretically have the final word on most player decisions, and could finally build a team specifically to his liking. That could be a lure indeed. The problem is that the Maple Leafs, even after firing GM Dave Nonis, have a handful of smart guys already heavily invested in those decisions, including analytics wunderkind Kyle Dubas and, of course, Shanahan himself. It’s impossible to believe that, weeks after implementing a new power structure, Shanahan would discard it completely to give Babcock complete control.
It’s pretty clear by now that Babcock is a gifted coach—maybe the league’s most talented boss in terms of wringing excellence from a collection of 25 men on skates. But if his stated goal is to add to his collection of hardware, well, there are several better places to do it. Unless he just wants to get paid and boost his ego by being The One Man Who Can Save The Leafs.
And from the Leafs’ standpoint, it sure looks as though they’re trying to install a new regime with Shanahan as the ultimate accountable authority. Perhaps bringing in a superstar coach whom many fans will credit for all the good things, and excoriate Shanahan for not listening to him when things go bad, is not the easiest way to go about it.