The St. Louis Blues-Minnesota Wild matchup was yet another beastly battle in this year of amazingly challenging first-round series. Both teams were extremely deep, had excellent underlying defensive numbers, could roll three effective scoring lines, and had confidence in all three of their defensive pairings.
When all was said and done, the key difference was the ability of the Wild to limit opportunities for the insanely talented Vladimir Tarasenko while shutting down the rest of the Blues. In the end, Minnesota’s scoring depth produced more than enough offence to push on to the next round.
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Minnesota its own coaching controversy earlier this season. Mike Yeo and his team entered the season preaching a new dedication to puck possession and the hard-learned lessons of analytics. Unfortunately the new approach, and the pretty underlying numbers that went with it, didn’t matter much until the Wild traded for Devan Dubnyk midway through the campaign. Now Minnesota has eliminated the top seed from the Western Conference and will be brimming with confidence against the Chicago Blackhawks in round two.
After alternating wins for the first four games, Minnesota won games four and five by 4-1 scores, finally eliminating the Blues with the crowd in St. Paul behind them. Devan Dubnyk suffered his worst loss in a Wild uniform in game three, allowing more than three goals for only the second time since he joined the team, and being pulled for the first time. He bounced back in a serious way, allowing two goals over the final two games.
Tarasenko’s output was just amazing this series, scoring six goals on only 14 shots in the series leading the NHL in goal production for the first round. But the rest of the Blues deep lineup didn’t produce enough in the series—the only other forward with more than one goal was Patrik Berglund. Off-season additions Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera had disappointing series in particular, combining for a measly goal three points.
In contrast, Minnesota’s top line of Zach Parise, Mikael Granlund and Jason Pominville generated six goals and 17 points, never really being effectively held in check by the Blues defence. The Wild’s secondary scoring from the likes Nino Niederreiter and Mikko Koivu was more than enough to push past the Blues. Going into the second round against Chicago, the Wild will want to see more production from the likes of Thomas Vanek, Chris Stewart, Charlie Coyle, Justin Fontaine and Matt Cooke.
St. Louis has some serious questions to answer in the off-season, ranging from what they decide to do with Hitchcock and his expiring contract, to how they cope with their impending free agents. Leading scorer Tarasenko is an RFA and Barret Jackman, Zbynek Michalek and Chris Butler are all UFAs on the blueline. The Blues also have the interesting question of Vladimir Sobotka’s contract situation—he still owes a year to the Blues after signing on in the KHL rather than fulfilling his arbitrated contract. It is possible that Sobotka’s rights get dealt this off-season as St. Louis seeks to reorganize their roster.
Four years under Ken Hitchcock, four years of early exits from the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since taking over the Blues 13 games into the 2011-12 season, no NHL team or coach has a better regular-season record than the Blues and Hitchcock’s 175-79-27 (.671 Pts%). Unfortunately the NHL doesn’t look fondly on regular-season success that isn’t followed by post-season success, and as a result Hitchcock may find himself with a new team next season.
No matter what they decide to do, the Blues will still be considered a contender next season with the roster pieces they have to work with.
Minnesota is going to have the advantage defensively heading into the next round, but they’ll have their hands full against the consistently dangerous Blackhawks. Unlike St. Louis, the Hawks have rolled through the playoffs the past few years and aren’t likely to go quietly into the night. Corey Crawford and Scott Darling have both seen time in net for Chicago and neither one has posted stellar numbers so far.
Thus, the biggest advantage for the Wild will come in the form of confidence in their goaltending from Dubnyk. If they can continue to limit chances for the opposition and Dubnyk is there to slam the door shut when they do get them, the Wild should remain confident.