It has been 12 long years since the Buffalo Sabres took part in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Not only is that the longest postseason drought in NHL history, but it is also tied for the longest active drought across the four major North American professional sports leagues. (It is never good to share a distinction with the New York Jets.)
Optimism abounded in Buffalo entering the season, though. The Sabres were competitive until the end of last season, missing the playoffs by one point thanks to star turns from Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin. The young talent around them — Dylan Cozens and Owen Power, among others — gave Sabres fans a reason for hope.
That is why the 4-5-0 start to this Sabres season feels disappointing, especially after an impressive 4-0 win against the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday that showcased their potential. The explosive offence that carried them in 2022-23 has struggled to get off the ground through the first month of the season.
The play of the Sabres’ top line has been one cause of the offensive issues. Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch were a revelation last season, outscoring opponents 42-32 at 5-on-5 as a unit and controlling 53.6 per cent of expected goals. They were particularly effective off the rush, generating 106 such scoring chances.
That has not carried over to this season. The Skinner-Thompson-Tuch line has a 39.6 XGF% in 43:25 of ice time, scoring once at 5-on-5. Coach Don Granato recently separated them in an effort to create more balance. It has worked to a degree; Thompson, Cozens and Jordan Greenway have out-chanced opponents 20-10 at 5-on-5. Of the seven forward combinations that have played at least 20 minutes for the Sabres, theirs is the only one with a positive XGF% (80.2).
“The key is to not have a top line. The key is to have top lines,” Granato told reporters recently. “If we can get (our offensive depth) going better, that’s a very, very powerful thing that we have not yet gotten to the point where we can (take advantage of it). That’s a bit of an initiative for us, to move in that direction.”
The power play has also been snake-bitten. Buffalo has scored on 3 per cent of its power-play shot attempts (3-for-99), compared to 9.3 per cent last season. The Sabres’ shot quality is slightly better this season (0.22 XG per two minutes versus 0.19 last season), which suggests that positive regression could be on the way.
Goaltending, a perpetual problem for the Sabres, has performed in line with expectations, having allowed only an extra half a goal. That is a vast improvement over last season, when Buffalo gave up 19.4 goals above expected. When rookie Devon Levi stumbled out of the gate before suffering a lower-body injury, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie steadied the ship, stopping a combined 86.4 per cent of slot shots.
Despite an uneven start, the Sabres should be OK. If they can get on track offensively, their stay in the Atlantic Division basement should be short.
All stats via Sportlogiq
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