For a club of Barcelona’s stature ‘crisis’ seems to always be just one loss away, which is why the Catalans go into their Champions League Round of 16 match against Manchester City with a bit of added pressure after this weekend’s loss to Malaga.
Luis Enrique has come under some criticism in his first season as manager, but under his guidance Barcelona’s numbers look like those of a team more than capable of winning the Champions League.
Barcelona’s road to the knockout stage was relatively smooth, with their road loss to Paris Saint-Germain the only blemish. Beyond the wins and losses Barcelona were dominant in the group stage averaging 15.8 shot attempts per game while only conceding 7.3 shots per game for a 0.68 Total Shots Ratio—the ratio of shots taken by a team to the total number of shots taken and conceded.
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In La Liga, Barcelona’s numbers have been very similar, averaging 16.7 shots while conceding only 7.5 shots per game for a TSR of 0.69. Barcelona’s shot dominance numbers this year look similar to those of the 2010-11 Champions League winning side when they put up a TSR of 0.73.
Its team statistics were excellent throughout the group stage, but it is only once we start to look at some of their individual attacking numbers that Barcelona begin to look really dangerous.
Lionel Messi has flown a little under the radar this season, mainly for committing the crime of not scoring as many goals as Cristiano Ronaldo. Despite not being Ronaldo, Messi’s attacking output has been phenomenal.
In La Liga, Messi is averaging 1.15 goals per 90 minutes, 0.58 assists per 90 minutes, 5.02 shots per 90 minutes and 2.75 key passes (a pass that leads to a shot) per 90 minutes.
One way to evaluate a player’s attacking contribution in a single statistic is their Weighted Chances Created Plus rating, which compares their attacking output in terms of shots, key passes, goals and assists to the average player at their position. The average player at any position will have a wCC+ of 100.
Messi’s wCC+ rating this season is 256.68. This means that Messi contributes a little over 150 percent more to his team’s attack than the average forward in La Liga. Messi’s contribution is essentially worth that of two and half times the average forward. This number isn’t just this season good, it’s historically good.
Messi’s player radar also gives a good idea of how complete a player he has become, beyond just goals and assists, but also in terms successful dribbles and holding onto the ball.
Messi alone isn’t what makes Barcelona a threat to win the Champions League, though. Messi has consistently been performing at or around this level for the past seven years; what is special about this year is his supporting cast.
Neymar’s first campaign with Barcelona was a little disappointing and his World Cup with Brazil ended in heartbreak, but he has rebounded fantastically this season. Neymar’s 1.06 goals per 90 minutes on 3.61 shots per 90 minutes trail only behind Messi and Ronaldo in La Liga. He’s also managed 0.25 assists per 90 minutes with 1.25 key passes per 90 minutes. Neymar’s wCC+ rating of 166.52 puts him sixth among La Liga forwards this season. For a player with numbers this good to only be his team’s second leading goal scorer is quite remarkable.
Messi and Neymar were both part of Barcelona’s Champions League challenge last season that ended in a quarterfinal defeat to La Liga rivals Atletico Madrid. What is different about this season is the third member of a deadly attacking trio.
As a result of his suspension Luis Suarez only played in Barcelona’s final three games of the Champions League group stage and took a little while to find his rhythm coming off four months on the sideline. Now that Suarez is starting to connect with his teammates and carve out his own place his numbers are starting to look more like those during his time at Liverpool, except that he seems to have added an extra dimension with high assist numbers.
Suarez leads La Liga with an average of 0.67 assists per 90 minutes, while still managing 0.34 goals per 90 minutes. Playing alongside Neymar and Messi has certainly helped boost Suarez’s assist numbers, but even then 0.67 assists per 90 minutes is incredible for a player primarily known for goal-scoring. Luis Suarez’s wCC+ of 183.48 is the fourth highest among La Liga forwards this season and as Suarez starts to get his scoring touch back this number is likely to rise.
Over the past few seasons as players like Xavi and Andres Iniesta have started to fall off the pace opposition teams have been able to contain Barcelona by containing Messi. However this season’s Barcelona is a different prospect.
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Real Madrid’s Champions League victory last season was thanks in large part to the “BBC” attacking trio of Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Ronaldo. This year at Barcelona Messi, Neymar and Suarez are putting up even better numbers than Real Madrid’s attacking trident.
Based on wCC+, which is the best indicator of overall attacking contribution, Barcelona have three of the six best attackers in La Liga, a league renowned for attacking talent. Barcelona isn’t just an incredibly threatening team, but in terms of offensive output they are also quite a balanced one.
Manchester City has conceded 10.1 shots per game this season in the Premier League and they are going to have a very difficult time containing Messi, Neymar and Suarez.
It is this attacking trio that gives Barcelona the best chance they’ve had of winning the Champions League since Pep Guardiola was at the helm.
Sam Gregory is soccer analytics writer based in Montreal. Follow him on Twitter