Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC is set to make its debut in Saudi Arabia on Saturday with former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker welcoming Ikram Aliskerov to the top tier of the 185-pound division.
Whittaker was initially supposed to face Khamzat Chimaev on this card before the undefeated star withdrew from the event last week due to illness and was replaced by the upstart Aliskerov who is thrust into the main event spotlight in only his third UFC appearance.
Russian heavyweight knockout artists Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov are to meet in the co-main event of an intriguing main card.
All fighters successfully made weight early Friday, including Kelvin Gastelum who on Thursday had his matchup with Daniel Rodriguez moved from welterweight to middleweight.
Updated bout order and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
— Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov
— Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov
— Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez
— Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Antonio Trocoli
— Johnny Walker vs. Volkan Oezdemir
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon
— Muhammad Naimov vs. Felipe Lima
— Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nicolas Dalby
— Kang Kyung-ho vs. Muin Gafurov
— Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
— Xiao Long vs. Lee Chang-ho
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Gafurov vs. Kang Starts Round 2 -600 (FanDuel)
Both of these fighters are methodical tacticians who I expect will have a very close and competitive first round in a bout that I believe will ultimately go to a decision. This fight starting the second round has a very high likelihood and if I am going to make a pick that is a “lock”, while there is no such thing in this crazy game, I am going to go with this one.
Dan: Shara Magomedov to win outright -549 (FanDuel)
Lock it in! Shara Magomedov has an unbeaten record in MMA of 12-0 with 10 of them coming by knockout. His opponent comes into this match on extremely short notice. I expect Trocoli’s four-fight winning streak to come to an end on Saturday.
Mike: Pavlovich vs. Volkov under 2.5 rounds -277 (BetWay)
The most likely result according to the odds is a Pavlovich first-round knockout and even if the one-time interim title challenger can’t get back to his winning ways I suspect he’ll be just as dangerous early in the second round. Either that or he’ll gas out and/or get caught by Volkov who also has heavyweight power. My only slight concern here would be if Pavlovich doesn’t know what to do with Volkov’s height and the former Bellator champ manages to stay on the outside and out-points his former training partner in a conservative manner. That’s not why the UFC booked this matchup in a co-main slot on a network TV card though, so I expect fireworks from the opening minute.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -114 (to win $87.71)
2024 Record: 9-11 (current streak: W4)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$215.84
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Johnny Walker -112 (FanDuel)
Walker is now a small favourite against Volkan Oezdemir and I think his physical gifts will be a problem for Oezdemir in this spot. In closely lined fights, Walker has historically done well and I think that under the tutelage of John Kavanaugh, he has refined his game and traded in some of his recklessness and unpredictability for structure and technical prowess. I believe that Walker wins this fight more often than not.
Dan: Robert Whittaker -148 (DraftKings)
Robert Whittaker will reap the benefits of having a full camp in preparation for this bout in Saudi Arabia. This will be the toughest test of Irkam Aliskerov’s career and the fact he is taking this on short notice against such an accomplished middleweight doesn’t feel right in my opinion. Kudos to Aliskerov for stepping up and taking a five-round fight, I just don’t see how he beats The Reaper on Saturday.
Mike: Robert Whittaker -148 (DraftKings)
I’d pick Aliskerov to beat nearly every middleweight on the UFC roster right now and if the version of Whittaker that showed up against Dricus Du Plessis shows up in Saudi Arabia then Aliskerov will put away the former champ just as convincingly as the current champ did last summer. The more I’ve thought about this matchup since it was announced, the more I believe the short-notice opponent switch is a huge advantage for Whittaker. Aliskerov, who prepared for a three-round fight, had to cut weight twice in one week and was flown from Las Vegas to Riyadh to fight a former champion who was preparing for a 25-minute main event. If Whittaker is patient early and mindful of Aliskerov’s power, especially early, then he should be more than capable of using his movement and veteran savvy to piece up his opponent on the feet.
Aaron’s favourite record: 12-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$28.38
Dan’s favourite record: 14-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$295.40
Mike’s favourite record: 12-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$3.52
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Muhammadjon Naimov +100 (Caesars)
Naimov’s short notice opponent Felipe Lima is a very high-level prospect, which is why this bout is lined so closely, but the former OKTAGON bantamweight champion will also have to fight up a weight class under these circumstances. When this bout was announced, I thought that Naimov was going to be a much bigger favourite in this spot given the circumstances and with him riding an impressive win streak since joining the UFC. Another factor that many are overlooking is how incredible Tajik mixed martial arts fans are and with Saudi Arabia being only a roughly three-hour flight from Tajikistan, I expect that he will have the crowd firmly behind him in this spot.
Dan: Xiao Long -105 (BetMGM)
I am not claiming to be an expert on either Xiao Long or Chong Ho Lee’s MMA abilities. Both fighters make their UFC debut and have taken almost identical paths to get here. Long is the younger of the 2 debutants, has more MMA experience and has a slight reach advantage. Worth leaning the underdog here with so many question marks surrounding how these two will fare in their UFC debuts.
Mike: Nicolas Dalby +295 (DraftKings)
Rinat Fakhretdinov is riding a 21-fight unbeaten streak so it makes sense why he’s a heavy favourite over fellow unranked 170-pounder Dalby but this line is too wide for how well Dalby has been performing lately. Dalby has great cardio and pushes a steady pace and he handed Gabriel Bonfim his first pro loss his last time out. Wanted to mention I nearly went with Daniel Rodriguez here on principle because Kelvin Gastelum being so far off weight that Rodriguez was essentially forced into accepting a fight up a weight class seems, at least on the surface without having all the details, quite unprofessional.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-11
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$175
Dan’s underdog record: 5-15
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$870
Mike’s underdog record: 9-11
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$27
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Gadzhiyasulov vs. Ribeiro goes the distance +500 (BetOnline)
When Gadzhiyasulov has fought against good competition, his path to victory has been to utilize his takedowns to neutralize his opponent. I can definitely see him going for the path of least resistance against a dangerous striker like Ribeiro and at these long odds, I see some value.
Dan: Whittaker wins in Round 3 or 4 +650 (BetRivers)
Whittaker went 3 rounds with Paulo Costa back in February. I’m not convinced Ikram Aliskerov is at that level. Aliskerov’s 2 UFC bouts have ended inside the 1st round. As this bout gets dragged into unfamiliar territory, it’s not inconceivable that Whittaker can’t find a finish in round 3 or 4. At +650, its worth a dart throw. You can also get the same prop with similar odds on Aliskerov if you strongly disagree.
Mike: Volkov to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2 (+550 FanDuel)
I see this as a very real possibility if Volkov can withstand an early onslaught and use Pavlovich’s aggression against him the way Tom Aspinall did. Pavlovich tends to fight one way and people tend to underestimate Volkov’s power because he’s a lankier heavyweight.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 2-17-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$600
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,200
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-15-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,800
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)
