TORONTO – Given the circumstances, the underwhelming course this Toronto Blue Jays off-season has taken probably shouldn’t be a surprise.
They were never going to be a prime destination for free agents, not after an 88-loss season, with franchise cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette pending free agents, a lacklustre farm system unable to replenish an expiring core and four American League East rivals that appear to be on much better trajectories.
The only way to compensate for those issues is to overpay, and even that wasn’t going to work with the two free agents they went all out for, as no team was topping the New York Mets for Juan Soto, while Corbin Burnes seemed set on, at minimum, a team with spring training in Arizona before ending up at home with the Diamondbacks.
Regardless, the Blue Jays took their shots there, fell short, and outside of that duo, have remained disciplined to their valuations, not even making an offer on Max Fried when the price-point soared past their comfort zone, remaining involved on Teoscar Hernandez, but never to the point that they’d elbow out the competition.
In other words, they’ve remained rational in a competitive market that’s required some degree of irrationality. And with multiple strikes against them, well, that just isn’t very conducive to landing players.
It is, however, conducive to making them this off-season’s most convenient and effective stalking horse, as with some money to spend, roster holes to fill and jobs in the balance, they, in theory, should have both the motivation and wherewithal to be in on everyone and everything.
As a result, the industry seems to have treated the Blue Jays like the party guest who’s a two at 10 p.m. just waiting to become someone’s 10 at 2 a.m.
“They act like they’re a bottom-feeder,” lamented one agent.
“The Michael Phelps of silver medals,” said another.
“They’re like the Giants the past couple of winters,” added a third.
Harsh as all that may be, fair or not, it’s the Blue Jays’ perception to wear and to persevere through, since there’s plenty more off-season business still to happen, for them and others.
We’ll see whether their fortunes in the market change, but their approach of controlled and selective aggression will no doubt remain, even with Andres Gimenez, Yimi Garcia and Nick Sandlin the only roster adds thus far.
To wit, they’re staying in the game on Anthony Santander, although they’re probably not the favourite to land the switch-hitting outfielder right now. They remain engaged on Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, but are believed to be on the periphery on those fronts, and the same may hold true on Tanner Scott. The Blue Jays are also said to be actively working the trade market, which is where the centre-piece of their winter work thus far – Gimenez – came from.
For the right combination of players, they can still exceed the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $241 million, which would have happened had they landed Soto or Burnes, and FanGraphs’ RosterResource currently projects their 2025 payroll at $228.5 million.
But if they don’t land whoever their remaining prime targets are, the Blue Jays are likely to end up under the $241-million cutoff, which would seem to leave them more in the bounce-back/value play market. One potential name there is Jorge Polanco, the switch-hitting infielder coming off a down year in Seattle.
Looming in the background is the ticking clock on extension talks with Guerrero, who said he won’t discuss a long-term deal after spring training’s first full-squad workout.
Thursday’s deadline for exchanging salary arbitration figures will be something of a leading indicator as if the sides can’t avoid a hearing, it won’t bode well for a longer-term agreement.
Last month, during an appearance on the Spanish-language Abriendo El Podcast, Guerrero revealed that the Blue Jays made him an offer earlier this off-season in the area of $340 million that “isn’t even close to what we are looking for.”
That offer is believed to have come before Soto’s $765-million, 15-year contract with the Mets. A complicating factor now is how much influence that deal will have on future free-agent markets, just as Fernando Tatis’ $340-million, 14-year early career extension with the San Diego Padres in the spring of 2021 changed the dynamic and muddled previous attempts at a deal between the Blue Jays and Guerrero.
Regardless, after taking the four-time all-star to a pointless hearing and losing last year, it’s hard to imagine the club failing to avoid arbitration with the slugger again.
More than anything else, a Guerrero extension is the Blue Jays’ best – arguably only – chance at extending their current competitive window given how the rest of the off-season has transpired. There’s a debate to be had about their order of operations heading into this winter, and if some of their outcomes might have been different had Guerrero been locked up before free agency.
A fuller reckoning, once all the coming moves industry-wide have settled, is coming.
Until then, perhaps they can get creative and find ways to rescue a painfully light off-season, one that eases them from a bind that shouldn’t have been unexpected.
