When teams like the Toronto Blue Jays shop in the free-agent market, the most important consideration is often contract size vs. projected value.
Although that’s clearly a good place to start, it’s the be-all and end-all of navigating free agency. Not only is it hard to find inexpensive players relative to their potential output in a market where 29 other bidders are active — and the Athletics’ signing of Luis Severino on Thursday shows that every team is active — there is also a player scarcity issue.
If you are interested in a starting shortstop, and only one available player fits the bill, you may want to sign him even if the next-best player offers better value for money. A cheap one-WAR player may be a more efficient signing than an expensive three-WAR guy, but that doesn’t make him a better signing.
As free agency heats up, the Blue Jays will have to consider where it makes sense to shop at the top of the market and where cheaper alternatives project to be at least league average (which we’ll use 2.0 fWAR as a shorthand to define here).
Here’s how it breaks down into several different categories:
Juan Soto
Soto is an entirely different proposition than anyone else in the market at his position or any other. The outfielder’s potential value is in a different category than his peers, and his contract will reflect that. The cost of losing out on Soto is significant as the market has no comparable players to offer.
Starting Pitchers
Top available players with projected 2025 fWAR: Corbin Burnes (3.9), Max Fried (3.2), Nathan Eovaldi (2.8).
Alternatives that project to be MLB-average or better: Jack Flaherty (2.5), Nick Pivetta (2.5), Max Scherzer (2.2), Alex Cobb (2.1), Clayton Kershaw (2.1), Sean Manaea (2.1)
Prognosis: Starting pitching is tricky because there is usually a decent supply, but the demand tends to meet it, and assuming someone will fall to you on a comfortable contract can be faulty logic.
Two of the “alternative” players here (Scherzer and Kershaw) probably aren’t available to Toronto due to its competitive uncertainty, which means there are surprisingly few options outside of the top guys.
That helps explain why there has been so much buzz around the Blue Jays in the starting market. The team’s rotation needs are arguably more acute in years past 2025 than the upcoming season, with Chris Bassitt’s contract expiring, Kevin Gausman’s coming up in 2026, and José Berríos having an opt-out after that season.
It’s a situation that makes adding a starter in their mid-to-late thirties like Eovaldi (35) and Cobb (37) unlikely. A longer-term building block would be a better fit for Toronto, narrowing its list of ideal targets further and making a shot at Burnes (30) or Fried (31) more logical.
Non-Soto Corner Bats (1B/LF/RF/DH)
Top available players with projected 2025 fWAR: Pete Alonso (2.6), Anthony Santander (2.5), Christian Walker (2.5)
Alternatives that project to be MLB-average or better: Teoscar Hernández (2.3), Jurickson Profar (2.2)
Prognosis: This is a tough position to look at through the lens of WAR because 1B/DH and corner outfielders are penalized for their lack of defensive value. There are players below the two fWAR projection threshold that could be considered viable answers at one of these positions, like Tyler O’Neill (1.8) — and strong lefty platoon bats like Joc Pederson (1.6) and Jesse Winker (1.5).
If the Blue Jays are interested in a full-time corner outfielder, they can feel good about deploying alongside Daulton Varsho and George Springer every day, Santander, Hernández, Profar, and perhaps O’Neill are their only options.
While that is a small pool of players, it’s notable that their projected value is all relatively similar, and they are all in a small age range (30-32). From a stylistic standpoint, the Blue Jays may be interested in someone with more power than Profar offers, but this does seem like a corner of the market where they can prioritize value instead of aggressively locking in on one player.
Infielders at Positions of Need (2B/3B)
Top available players with projected 2025 fWAR: Alex Bregman (3.8), Gleyber Torres (2.0)
Alternatives that project to be MLB-average or better: None
Prognosis: This is a barren segment of the market, although a shortstop like Willy Adames or Ha-Seong Kim could theoretically push Bo Bichette to one of these spots — or, more likely, move to short in 2026 if Bichette leaves.
This position group shows the importance of player scarcity. If a team misses out on Bregman, for instance, they effectively have to give up on finding a starting third baseman without losing players or prospects on the trade market. That’s not an ironclad argument to sign Bregman — or Torres at second base — but it’s worth considering that if you let them pass you by, there will be a significant tier drop below them.
The second baseman or third baseman with the highest projected fWAR below them is Jose Iglesias — a 35-year-old who sits at 1.4. The veteran is coming off a surprisingly strong year, but handing him a big contract and starting role is unlikely to pan out for a contender.
Relief Pitchers
Relievers do not fit the parameters we’ve set out here as not one free-agent RP projects to hit one fWAR, and 19 have projections within 0.5 fWAR of the top two available pitchers — Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman.
There is an intellectually credible argument to make that reliever volatility means that shopping at the top of the market is always inefficient, and alternatives are always plentiful. Organizations that excel in pitching development also tend to be able to create an assembly line of young arms capable of logging quality innings out of the bullpen.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, that description has not fit them recently. Since the current front office took over in 2016, only three teams have gotten fewer fWAR from their relievers, and in 2024, Toronto had the worst bullpen in the majors by multiple metrics — including fWAR (-2.5).
Any claim that pitchers like Scott and Hoffman are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the relievers is on the subjective side, but that doesn’t make it false by definition. Battle-tested high-leverage arms in their primes can be a dicey asset when it comes to payroll efficiency, but they are also handy to have.
It’s possible no team could use an elite reliever more than the Blue Jays, but it would take a big philosophy shift for the franchise to outbid the rest of the league at the top end of the market.
