Bold F1 predictions for 2022: Hamilton's last stand paves way for rise of Russell

Looking back at how the 2021 Formula One season unfolded, it’s like someone’s bold predictions came true.

Two drivers tied atop of the standings heading into the season finale? That hadn’t happened since 1974. Esteban Ocon earning his first Grand Prix victory? Not without chaos, of course. George Russell putting a Williams car back on the podium when a Grand Prix gets called off after just one lap? Yep, that was a thing that happened. Lewis Hamilton losing out to Max Verstappen for the world championship on the last lap after a late safety car sets up a controversial head-to-head finish? Let’s not kick that hornets’ nest again.

As crazy as this year was, F1 is introducing new regulations for 2022 — with the intention to create closer racing and potentially increase overtaking — meaning we could be in for an even wilder season ahead. At least that’s the theory, we’ll have to wait until the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix in March to see how it actually plays out.

Before “it’s lights out and away we go” with my bold F1 predictions for 2022, just remember: This is all an exercise in good fun, so no need to flip out if some of these are too bold. Besides, we need something to lighten the mood after such a dramatic and divisive ending this year.

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Hamilton will win his record eighth world championship … and then contemplate his future

Hamilton is going to come back with a vengeance after having the world championship snatched from his grasp in the season finale.

Already the all-time leader in Grand Prix victories with 103, Hamilton will continue to add to his total en route to an unprecedented eighth world championship to surpass all-time great Michael Schumacher.

At the risk of receiving hate mail from Verstappen fans and everyone in the Netherlands, these are supposed to be bold predictions. A successful title defence for Verstappen doesn’t cut it, but neither does another championship victory from Hamilton.

Let’s turn it up a notch: Feeling drained after giving it his all in 2022, Hamilton will opt to take a break from the sport. Considering 11 drivers are reportedly without contracts after the season, the dominoes shall fall for the silliest of silly seasons beginning with Hamilton’s replacement.

Mercedes test driver Nyck de Vries or even Ocon (who’s managed by Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff) are the most likely candidates. Here’s a bold consideration: Mercedes poaches Pierre Gasly from AlphaTauri and really drives the knife into Red Bull Racing.

Gasly tasted bitterness following his demotion to Red Bull’s B-team and since then has seemingly done everything to prove he’s worthy of being Verstappen’s teammate again on the main squad. Perhaps it’s time to look elsewhere and what better place than the No. 1 team and Red Bull’s rival?

Russell, not Verstappen, will finish second in the championship

Mercedes will also dominate the constructors’ championship once more to claim a record-extending ninth title. Who’s ready for more fired-up Wolff memes?

With Honda still supporting Red Bull Racing but no longer supplying power units and everything now being done in-house, it’s understandable if unforeseen issues crop up and spoil Verstappen’s title defence.

Challenging Hamilton for the world championship instead will be his new Mercedes teammate. We’ve already seen what Russell is capable of doing in a Mercedes when he subbed for Hamilton at the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix by finishing ninth and earning the fastest lap bonus point. That was in a car he wasn’t even fitted for and if not for a routine pit stop that went haywire who knows how well Russell would have done.

Russell will pick up his first Grand Prix victory, maybe even a few, and will be a fixture on the podium.

This will also factor into Hamilton’s decision to step back from the sport with the writing on the wall that this is now Russell’s team going forward.

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Ferrari will continue to climb but create a rift between Leclerc and Sainz

Russell isn’t the only driver who will pick up his first Grand Prix victory in 2022. If the new regulations work out as planned, we should see a couple other drivers stand at the top of the podium for the first time as well.

Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris earning their first wins is an evergreen prediction. Both certainly have the talent and the wheels driving for Ferrari and McLaren, respectively, that it should happen eventually.

While the bro-mance between Norris and Daniel Ricciardo on McLaren will remain intact, Sainz snapping Ferrari’s nearly three-year Grand Prix victory drought will drive a wedge between him and Charles Leclerc.

Sainz already edged Leclerc in the points last season, however, Leclerc has had greater peaks securing pole position twice and has two Grand Prix victories with Ferrari under his belt — albeit both wins came in 2019.

Tension will also rise as one of them has to be in the hot seat with Mick Schumacher waiting in the wings. (More on that in our final bold prediction.)

Ferrari sprinted away from McLaren during the back half of last season to take third in the constructors’ championship. That momentum should continue but it’ll come at a cost.

Aston Martin will struggle again and Sebastian Vettel will leave

The new regulations may help a team pull off an out-of-nowhere 2009 Brawn GP season but Aston Martin already had their opportunity to surprise in 2020 when they were still known as Racing Point. The controversial “Pink Mercedes” design – which helped them finish fourth in the constructors’ — basically set the lofty expectations they’ve been chasing since.

It’s more likely Aston Martin will continue to languish in the mid-to-back field as they’re still going through a rebuilding phase.

The frustration of not being consistently competitive will be enough for Sebastian Vettel and the four-time world champion will part ways with the team at the end of the year. As for where? We can only picture him shooting for the stars and maybe Vettel will throw his name into the hat as a possible replacement for Hamilton at Mercedes.

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Mick Schumacher will score his first point(s)

Perhaps the boldest of bold predictions? Jokes aside, Haas F1 Team will improve in 2022 simply because they’re the only ones who have nowhere else to go but up. It can’t get any worse than their dreadful 2021 campaign finishing last in the constructors’ championship with neither Mick Schumacher nor Nikita Mazepin scoring a single point.

Both were also rookie drivers and there’s reason to believe Haas is focused on the future. Haas strengthened its relationship with engine manufacturer Ferrari by bringing in Simone Resta, formerly Ferrari’s head of chassis engineering, as technical director on a long-term contract prior to last season.

Let’s also not forget Schumacher is more or less on loan to Haas rising up through the Ferrari Driver Academy and also serving as their reserve driver. It’s in Ferrari’s best interest to see Haas, specifically Schumacher, succeed.

It’s not going to be easy for Schumacher though as his first point(s) will probably come in a Grand Prix with a lot of luck (i.e. multiple retirements). It’s how he ended up with his best result of 2021 finishing P12 in Hungary with seven cars failing to cross the finish line. Hey, if two more drivers had gotten caught up in the opening lap pile-up, Schumacher would have netted his first point then and there.

Cue the rumour mill that the son of Michael Schumacher is ready to follow in his father’s footsteps. What if Ferrari isn’t the only team his father drove for that is interested in the younger Schumacher? No, not the return of the Benetton family, but what about Mercedes?

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