Of the 1,229 players to appear in a major-league game in 2017, only a small group helped define the season in a meaningful way.
Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton sure did, but realistically, it’s hard to stand out in a sport that offers so many games, so many players and so many compelling personalities.
So which names will dominate the headlines in 2018?
1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Maybe he’ll build on an electrifying pitching debut in which he reached 100 m.p.h. and generated swinging strike after swinging strike. Or maybe he’ll disappoint, the way some suggested he would during an underwhelming spring training performance.
Regardless of how he performs, there’s little precedent for Ohtani’s skillset and no precedent for what he and the Angels are trying to do playing him on the mound and at the plate. Watching him attempt to become a modern day Babe Ruth will be an essential part of the baseball watching experience in 2018.
2. Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
Last year’s Yankees snuck up on people, winning 91 regular season games before taking the eventual World Series winner Houston Astros to seven games in the ALCS. In 2018, baseball’s classic villains will no longer have the element of surprise on their side.
The middle of the Yankees’ order looks exceptionally powerful with the addition of 59-homer bat Giancarlo Stanton to go with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. But expectations are different in the Bronx than they were in Miami, where the Marlins posted a losing record in each of Stanton’s eight seasons with the team. The possibilities are endless in New York, where the pressures are just as considerable.
3. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Years ago we saw this coming. Back in 2012, when Harper debuted as a 19-year-old, you could do some back-of-the-envelope math and see that he would hit free agency after his age-25 season.
Harper’s talent has already translated to an MVP season (2015) and if he comes close to winning another one in 2018, his free agent sweepstakes will be as entertaining as advertised when he headlines an epic 2018 class. Scott Boras, Harper’s longtime agent, has already hinted that the Yankees would look good with Harper, and big-market teams like the Dodgers, Phillies and Nationals should be involved, too. The bidding could build to a crescendo at this year’s winter meetings, which will take place in perhaps the perfect spot: Harper’s hometown of Las Vegas.
4. Tony Clark, executive director, Major League Baseball Players Association
As the MLBPA prepares for its next round of collective bargaining with the league, some things are abundantly clear: Baseball’s competitive balance tax is acting as a major drag on player salaries. It’s also believed the union will be seeking means to increase compensation for young players. What’s unclear is whether the union will enter those negotiations with Clark as their leader, as Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports there are some members unhappy with the former player’s leadership. By the end of 2018, we should have some clarity about whether the union wants Clark to be their man going forward.
5. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
It’s hard to believe considering how long he’s been a fixture in Baltimore, but Machado’s final year under Orioles team control will be just his age-25 season.
Even if Machado simply replicates a good-but-not-great 2017 season, he’ll be in huge demand as a free agent this winter. Who wouldn’t want a durable, 33-homer shortstop who’s still very much in his prime? And if Machado returns to his superior 2015-16 level of production, there’s no telling how high the bidding could go. Rarely do seven-win players become available in free agency and it’s even less common for them to hit the open market at such a young age. At that point, 10-year deals and Alex Rodriguez contract comparisons may enter the discussion.
In the meantime, Baltimore’s playoff chances are largely dependent on Machado’s 2018 performance.
6. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
His inclusion here is predictable, granted. But health permitting, Trout will be the best player in baseball again this year, just as he has been for most of the past six seasons. As one veteran scout told me while compiling this list: at the end of the year “(Trout’s) numbers will simply be better than everybody else’s.”
To this point in Trout’s career, that’s been the case. Trout has averaged 8.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting up MVP season after MVP season. It’s never boring watching Trout prove he’s the best in the game, and he’ll once again be one of MLB’s most defining players in 2018.
7. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Another batting title, an MVP season, a $151 million contract extension and a World Series title. The last year has gone pretty well for Houston’s franchise second baseman, and it raises the question: what else could possibly be in store?
No doubt 2017 will be a tough one for him to top, but Altuve’s the favourite to win a fourth A.L. batting title this year while Houston has legitimate aspirations of a repeat. Here’s another thought: the longer Altuve sustains this level of production the more we need to start thinking of him as a future Hall of Famer.
8. Rob Manfred, MLB commissioner
The to-do list for Major League Baseball’s commissioner is long and varied. Not only will Manfred attempt to improve pace of play this year, he’s looking to grow the game’s reach with broadcast initiatives on Facebook, expand MLB’s media arm, resolve stadium questions for Oakland and Tampa and navigate a contentious relationship with the MLBPA.
9. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
As Correa begins his fourth full season in the big-leagues, he’s still just 23-years old—a little younger than top Cardinals prospect Alex Reyes and a little older than top Rangers prospect Willie Calhoun.
And yet Correa already has solidified his place among the game’s best players. The .315/.391/.550 slash line he posted during the regular season set up a playoff run that included five homers, an .886 OPS and a memorable on-field proposal. After a year like that, everyone else is merely playing catch-up…
10. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
… Well, almost everyone. If anyone can match Correa’s combination of youth, talent and star power it’s his Puerto Rican counterpart in Cleveland. Asked for the best non-Trout player in baseball, a league observer offered Lindor, the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP balloting last year. Like Correa, he’s surrounded by lots of talent on a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. But realistically Lindor is the kind of player who’d merit all of this attention even if he played on the Marlins.
11. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
While back troubles have limited Kershaw over the past two seasons, he remains as effective as ever on a per inning basis. Another ERA title in 2017 led to a second-place Cy Young finish for the left-hander, setting up an intriguing walk year—or, rather, potential walk year. Kershaw will only become a free agent if he thinks he can do better than the two years and $70 million owed to him beyond 2018.
As long as Kershaw stays healthy, it stands to reason he will opt out and surpass David Price’s $217 million free agent contract to set a new record for pitchers. If the Dodgers advance deep into the playoffs again, Kershaw will have more than money at stake: he’ll also have the chance to keep shifting the narrative around his post-season resume.
12. Rookie managers (Aaron Boone, Alex Cora, Gabe Kapler, Mickey Callaway, Dave Martinez)
Five of the six managers hired this past off-season had never managed a major-league game before this year. And yet each of these newcomers will have the chance to reach the playoffs. Boone’s Yankees, Cora’s Red Sox and Martinez’s Nationals are all prohibitive favourites to play in October, while the post-season’s also potentially within reach for Kapler’s Phillies and Callaway’s Mets.
Already, we’ve seen some of these managers struggle. Kapler’s decision to call on Hoby Milner without warming him up will go down as a colossal rookie blunder, but big picture we’re in Week 1 here. In the course of a full season will Kapler and his fellow first-time managers falter a la Walt Weiss and Matt Williams? Or will they success despite their inexperience like Dave Roberts and Torey Lovullo before them?
(Apologies to the other “new” manager, Ron Gardenhire, but it’ll be a long while before the Tigers are relevant again.)
13. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
Granted, fellow third basemen Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier didn’t do well in free agency this past winter, but tying that to Donaldson’s prospects would be akin to suggesting Clayton Kershaw should be worried because Lance Lynn took a one-year deal. Donaldson’s just … better. Over the past five years he has generated twice as much WAR as Frazier, four times as much as Moustakas.
The key of course, will be sustaining that production. Another vintage Donaldson year, and a lucrative nine-figure deal will await him. But you can’t just assume a seven-win season from anyone, which makes the 32-year-old’s 2018 especially intriguing.
Eventually, we’ll find out how the market values Donaldson, and even before then he’ll shape the season on the field. Chances are he’s playing in October for someone, because if by mid-season the Blue Jays aren’t contending, they’ll be considering offers to move their franchise player.
14. Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Darvish recorded 10 outs in the World Series and allowed nine runs. He started twice, in Game 3 and Game 7, and the Dodgers lost both times. You don’t need much of an imagination to see that the Fall Classic could have unfolded differently with even ordinary performances from Darvish.
“The World Series resulted in a disappointment due to my lack of performance,” he wrote on Twitter afterwards, “but I will carry this experience to the future.”
The future is in Chicago, where the Cubs are gunning for a fourth consecutive NLCS. Chances are, he’ll get the chance for redemption, maybe even against the Dodgers team he disappointed.
15. Derek Jeter, Miami Marlins chief executive officer
Gone are Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon. Also gone: Jeter’s previously pristine reputation within baseball. Not only did Jeter endorse the fire sale, but he also received criticism for how he handled the dismissals of Jack McKeon, Jeff Conine and Andre Dawson, not to mention scout Marty Scott, who was recovering from cancer. Meanwhile, the team on the field in 2018 will be awful—the worst in baseball, according to FanGraphs’ projections.
Jeter’s success at managing his own brand over two decades in New York suggests this story isn’t over yet. Still, his first full season as Marlins CEO will go a long way toward confirming or subverting those rough first impressions in Miami.
16. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Kershaw is masterful. Chris Sale is filthy and Corey Kluber is as good as it gets. But is anyone as fun to watch on the mound as Noah Syndergaard? With a fastball that averages 98.3 m.p.h, he offers unmatched power without the control issues that sometimes plague big arms. For his career, he has averaged 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings and just 1.9 walks per nine.
Even if he can pitch 180 innings, he’ll by a Cy Young contender in the National League and a leading contributor to a Mets team that could surprise.
17. Scott Boras, player agent
Hidden behind the bravado and within his sometimes convoluted but always entertaining metaphors, there’s substance to Boras’ words. He’s an original thinker, entrepreneurial and creative in the way he examines problems.
Over the years that’s led to unorthodox fits and unexpectedly large contracts, but this off-season was different. Boras clients such as Jake Arrieta, Greg Holland and Mike Moustakas obtained less than expected, and while it was a tough off-season across the board for agents, Boras faced more criticism than most.
Executives and fellow agents fairly pointed out that Boras aimed too high in some cases, eventually costing his clients. Commissioner Rob Manfred all but called Boras out for misreading the market. Now baseball’s most prominent agent needs a rebound, and with Harper on the market this winter, he faces one of his biggest tests yet.
18. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Votto’s cerebral approach to baseball distinguishes him from Trout, Miguel Cabrera and many other great hitters not as prone to self-evaluation. Most importantly, though, Votto’s a consistently elite offensive force.
Here are the players in baseball history with better career on-base percentages than Votto: Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, John McGraw, Billy Hamilton, Lou Gehrig, Barry Bonds, Bill Joyce, Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb and Jimmie Foxx. When you remove players who debuted in the 1800s, you’re left with Williams, Ruth, Gehrig, Bonds, Hornsby, Cobb and Foxx—all inner-circle Hall of Famers. If you remove those who debuted post-integration, you’re left with, well, Barry Bonds.
Bottom line? Since Jackie Robinson broke the colour barrier, no player other than Bonds has been a tougher out than Votto.
19. Andrew Friedman, Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations
Friedman could take the next six months off and the Dodgers would still make the playoffs. The team he’s assembled has that much talent (to say nothing of GM Farhan Zaidi and the rest of the Los Angeles front office).
At the same time, the playoffs alone aren’t enough for a team with a 30-year title drought that fell one win short of a World Series title last fall. Those expectations will add intrigue to the Dodgers’ in-season moves, and they’ll only become more interesting over the winter when Kershaw can test free agency and the team is expected to be players for other elite free agents.
20. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
The consensus best prospect in baseball, Acuna looks like a future middle-of-the-order bat with an outside chance to reach that potential immediately. He was just 19-years old last year when he hit .325/.374/.522 across three levels. Most impressively, his production improved at every level.
What, then, is a realistic expectation for an encore? “RoY,” wrote one big-league scout. Yep, Acuna’s that good. He’ll start the season in the minors for service time reasons, but once he reaches the Big Leagues, likely in mid-April, he’ll be one of the most exciting players in the game.
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Stuart Sternberg, principal owner, Tampa Bay Rays
Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants
Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco Giants
Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Alex Anthopoulos, general manager, Atlanta Braves
David Price, Boston Red Sox
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Rodriguez, television analyst