Almost by definition winning an MVP award requires a career year. Peak performance is a prerequisite for anyone with a legitimate shot at post-season hardware.
As a general rule, then, you can’t expect MVPs to repeat their success year after year — too much has to go right. That’s why it’s not a huge surprise when Bryce Harper has trouble replicating the numbers that won him the 2015 NL MVP. Even for a player with many awards in his future, it’s not necessarily an annual event.
It would have been understandable if AL winner Josh Donaldson experienced a similar decline, yet that’s not the way his year’s unfolding. Not only has Donaldson matched his 2015 pace, he’s actually been more productive so far this year than he was at the same point in 2015.
After 94 games last year he had 22 home runs and an .888 OPS. After the same number of games in 2016, he has 24 homers and a 1.020 OPS.
That comparison isn’t entirely fair, because Donaldson was about to embark on an exceptionally productive August this time last year (11 home runs, 1.132 OPS). But even if you compare last year’s full-season numbers to what Donaldson’s doing now, there’s no contest. He’s now having a better year.
| Year | G | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 158 | 41 | 41 | 123 | 73 | 133 | .297 | .371 | .568 | .939 | 8.7 |
| 2016 | 94 | 22 | 24 | 70 | 65 | 69 | .308 | .421 | .599 | 1.020 | 5.8 |
Donaldson’s hitting for more power while walking far more and striking out less. Defensively, he makes more routine plays than ever while mixing in highlight catches. He’s six for six stealing bases. As for intangibles, you’re looking at a player who battled nagging leg and thumb injuries to play in 94 of his team’s first 96 games.
Clearly Donaldson belongs in the MVP conversation once again. With two-plus months remaining, it’d be pointless to over-analyze the race now, but the conversation starts with the likes of Donaldson, Mike Trout and Jose Altuve.
| Name | Team | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | Angels | 19 | 62 | 17 | .320 | .425 | .566 | 168 | 5.9 |
| Josh Donaldson | Blue Jays | 24 | 70 | 6 | .308 | .421 | .599 | 169 | 5.8 |
| Jose Altuve | Astros | 15 | 54 | 25 | .357 | .427 | .563 | 162 | 5.1 |
| Francisco Lindor | Indians | 12 | 49 | 13 | .299 | .358 | .460 | 118 | 4.2 |
| Manny Machado | Orioles | 19 | 54 | 0 | .308 | .366 | .550 | 137 | 4.2 |
| Mookie Betts | Red Sox | 18 | 60 | 16 | .302 | .342 | .516 | 123 | 3.7 |
| David Ortiz | Red Sox | 23 | 75 | 2 | .326 | .420 | .665 | 177 | 3.3 |
| Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 11 | 59 | 11 | .319 | .376 | .464 | 123 | 3.3 |
And yet there’s considerably more at stake for the Blue Jays than personal accolades. The next two-plus months will be closely contested, with three teams now separated by a single game in the AL East. The longer Donaldson sustains this elite production, the better the Blue Jays’ chances of repeating as AL East winners.
