Jeff Moore is a former college player and Division I college coach who’s now based in Florida, where he scouts and writes about baseball full-time.
The Toronto Blue Jays knew they’d have to wait to see Jeff Hoffman on a pitcher’s mound. Thanks to the Tommy John surgery he had just before last June’s draft, the Blue Jays knew they had at least a year of watching their investment patiently rehab his right elbow before ever being able to enjoy the fruits of their investment.
But they were prepared to be patient. After all, it’s that patience that afforded them the opportunity to take a chance on him when eight other teams in front of them didn’t want to risk their first round pick on a player whose elbow still bore a fresh scar.
If it weren’t for that scar, Hoffman wouldn’t be a Blue Jay. The power-armed right-hander would’ve been among the top picks in the entire draft had he not gotten hurt. Hoffman entered the 2014 college season as one in the short discussion for the top overall pick, and he had been backing up that talk with his play on the mound until blowing out his elbow. Just a year removed from surgery, Hoffman’s stuff is once again reminiscent of the stuff that helped him build his resume as a potential 1:1 candidate.
Hoffman is slated to make his professional debut with the Dunedin Blue Jays Wednesday in an aggressive assignment given his injury, but one that is befitting his talent level. Collegiate pitchers often jump to High-A ball for their first full-season assignment in the season following their draft year, so the level of competition is appropriate.
Despite the injury, it’s not as though Hoffman has been sitting idly by. In addition to the arduous rehab process that accompanies Tommy John surgery — one that we often take for granted — Hoffman has recently been toeing the rubber in extended spring training, facing fellow rehabbing players and other minor leaguers who have yet to be assigned. While the results of these games matter little, the reports on Hoffman’s health and raw stuff matter greatly, and those reports have been excellent.
Chris King, my colleague at Baseball Prospectus, took in one of his last spring outings and clocked Hoffman’s fastball sitting comfortably between 93-97 mph while touching 98. The curveball has shown glimpses of its past knee-buckling bite, and while there is still some rust to knock off, it’s more a matter of gaining consistency rather than regaining his pure stuff. If you don’t believe me, you can check it out for yourself. Often times, command is the last thing to return after surgery, but Hoffman appears to be ahead of the game.
The natural question when you hear these kinds of superlative reports and see these kinds of videos is, if he’s healthy, how soon can he help? After all, the Blue Jays have made it quite clear that they are going for it this year. After starting the season with six rookies, including a pair of 20-year-old relievers, it’s fair to assume that they’re willing to do whatever it takes to compete this season.
It’s not impossible to believe that Hoffman could be a possible contributor in the majors this season, but it’s close. Just two players from Hoffman’s 2014 draft class have made it to the majors, and neither of them (Carlos Rodon and Brandon Finnegan) had Tommy John surgery a year ago. It’s assumed that throwing him into the starting rotation at this point is unrealistic, so we’d have to assume that Hoffman would be used as a reliever, a role that he’s never handled on consistent basis. Despite their win-now approach, the Blue Jays do have some long-term considerations in play. Putting him in high-leverage situations this soon after surgery could be dangerous.
But the more relevant current assessment is whether or not he’s ready to handle big league hitters. His pure stuff says he could be; his experience says he isn’t.
It’s difficult enough for a player to make it to the majors within a year of being drafted. It would be virtually unprecedented for a player to do so within 18 months of being drafted and having had Tommy John surgery.
But the pure fact that we can’t completely rule out the possibility of Hoffman making some kind of contribution this season is a testament to his ability. No, we shouldn’t consider him as a realistic option this season. He has yet to throw a pitch as a professional and he will need to escalate his way through three levels of minor league competition in four months in order to work his way to big league effectiveness. But the sheer fact that we can’t rule it out completely speaks volumes about what we can expect from him in the future.
