Jeff Moore is a former college player and Division I college coach who’s now based in Florida, where he scouts and writes about baseball full-time.
“He just wasn’t ready for the big leagues,” a scout told me earlier this year. And I agree, though Dalton Pompey did his best to fool everyone of that notion last year.
The 2014 season was magical for Pompey. But in the strange way that can only be explained by the parameters of the baseball calendar, Pompey’s incredible play did not carry over to this season.
It might have, perhaps, had he been facing the right level of competition. Based on his stellar 2014 campaign, one that saw him ascend all the way from the Class A Florida State League to the majors, he appeared, on the surface, to be ready for the challenge. He had exceeded at every step, giving the Toronto Blue Jays reason to continue to challenge him. He even put together an exceptionally strong fall in the prestigious Arizona Fall League, which is often seen as a finishing school for the major leagues.
But in reality, Pompey moved incredibly quickly last year, and his success on the field may not have been indicative of actual development.
We forget so often, in an age that has seen so many young players succeed so early, that the gap between even the upper levels of the minors and the big leagues is massive. Pompey is still just 22 and, more importantly from a baseball standpoint, he was just 183 plate appearances into the upper minors (double-A and triple-A) before the Blue Jays called him up for a late season cameo last year. And he even managed to hold his own in the big leagues in September.
But success in brief stints at each stop did not automatically insinuate big league success this season. The Blue Jays rushed Pompey through their minor league ranks last season, at least in part to see if he would be ready to succeed Colby Rasmus, with whom they were prepared to part ways. Pompey seemed up to the challenge, but in reality, it was too much, too soon.
It’s not shocking that he struggled in his first taste of everyday big league play. From an experience standpoint, he was in over his head. There’s a learning curve in which the upper minors play a significant role, teaching hitters how to handle better breaking stuff and pitchers with a plan. Pompey got the CliffsNotes version of that lesson, and then was expected to take the SATs.
Once a hitter is struggling, it’s hard to shake off that lack of confidence. Getting abused by big league pitchers will shake even the best hitter, and that’s not immediately remedied by returning to the minors. “He still looked tentative,” another scout told me after having seen him in triple-A Buffalo. “He didn’t look at all like the player who was here last year.”
Confidence can have that effect on a player. And Pompey’s play upon returning to triple-A in May reflected that, as he batted just .209 before being demoted further.
It would be ludicrous to think that Pompey’s skills have somehow diminished compared to last year. Barring some kind of significant injury, that sort of thing simply doesn’t happen. What does happen, however, is that a disillusioned view of a player who was asked to contribute before he was properly prepared to do so can actually affect the player’s performance. Essentially, the expectations exceed the preparedness.
Pompey seems now to have gotten back on track with a .351 batting average and .950 OPS at double-A. Ideally, he would have begun the year in triple-A, but expectations and big league necessity got the best of him. Once he returned to a level where he could dominate and regain his confidence, we again saw the player the Blue Jays thought they could count on.
Now that he’s regained his footing, Pompey is being promoted back to triple-A, where he likely should have begun the season. It’s the proper place for a 22-year-old with an aggressive ascension trajectory and limited experience. There’s a good chance, assuming he continues the success he started in triple-A, that he ends up back in the majors where the Blue Jays expected him all along.
The important thing to remember is that his unsuccessful stint in the majors and subsequent struggles in triple-A are in no way a reflection of his skill set. Pompey is still every bit the prospect that ignited the expectation flame last season. The talent is still there. It’s just needed a reset in the minors to shine.
