DUNEDIN, Fla. — Kyle Drabek was claimed on waivers by the Chicago White Sox on Friday afternoon, and so the last of the original three pieces of the Roy Halladay trade has left the building.
When the Blue Jays’ ace demanded a trade after the 2009 season — and was very specific about where the Jays could move him — rookie general manager Alex Anthopoulos received what was perceived at the time as a nice package of prospects. The previously untouchable Drabek came over from the Philadelphia Phillies along with catcher Travis d’Arnaud and outfielder Michael Taylor, who was immediately flipped to Oakland for then-third baseman Brett Wallace.
Drabek’s departure — for nothing in return — doesn’t close the door on the Halladay return, though. The Blue Jays wound up getting Anthony Gose for Wallace, and trading Gose for Devon Travis, who has been making a great impression here in his first big-league camp and who is more than likely to be the Jays’ starting second baseman on opening day.
D’Arnaud was traded, too, along with Noah Syndergaard, in exchange for R.A. Dickey in the winter of 2012-13.
So right now, the Blue Jays still have Travis and half of R.A. Dickey (which half, I’m not sure) to show for the departure of Halladay, five years after the fact.
How does that stack up against the return for other superstar pitchers moved for prospects around the same time? The gold standard, of course, is the Bartolo Colon trade. In January of 2003, the Cleveland Indians traded Colon to the Montreal Expos (may they rest in peace — or hopefully re-emerge) for an incredible package of prospects — Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips — and first baseman Lee Stevens.
Lee won a Cy Young award with the Tribe and Sizemore became a Cleveland icon. While Phillips also wound up a star, it wasn’t until after the Indians traded him to the Cincinnati Reds for Jeff Stevens, getting back whatever they could because Phillips was out of options and not going to make the team.
There’s really no beating that return, but in the two years around the time of the Halladay trade, seven other ace pitcher-for-prospects deals were made.
The Blue Jays have Devon Travis and half of R.A. Dickey to show for Halladay, let’s see how those other trades worked out:
February 2008: Minnesota trades Johan Santana to the New York Mets for Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
Gomez has become one of the best centre fielders in the game, offensively and defensively, but he’s done it as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Twins traded Gomez to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy, who they traded to the Orioles (with Brendan Harris) for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Hoey was lost on waivers and Jacobson left as a free agent without ever having played for the Twins.
Humber made 13 appearances totalling 20.2 innings pitched before leaving the Twins as a free agent; Mulvey was traded for Jon Rauch, who left the Twins as a free agent after a year and a half of solid relief work; Guerra never made it to the majors.
What did the Twins have to show for Santana seven years hence? Nothing.
July 2008: Cleveland trades CC Sabathia to Milwaukee for Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, Matt LaPorta and a player to be named later.
LaPorta was the big get in the deal, but he left Cleveland as a free agent after putting up a putrid .238/.301/.328 mark in parts of four seasons. Jackson made 12 appearances for the Tribe, posting a 6.11 ERA and was traded for, quite literally, nothing, and Bryson left as a minor-league free agent without ever playing in a game.
The player to be named later was Michael Brantley, who has turned out to be awesome, but who five years after the trade was made had yet to make the big leap that he made in 2014.
July 2010: Houston trades Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies for Anthony Gose, J.A. Happ and Jonathan Villar.
Gose was swapped for Wallace, who the Astros released after he put up a .242/.313/.391 line over parts of four disappointing seasons. Happ was dealt along with two others to the Blue Jays in a 10-player swap. One of the players acquired was released, another lost in the Rule 5 draft, and three others haven’t made it out of A-ball yet. All that’s really left of the return is one-time catching prospect Carlos Perez and pitcher Asher Wojciechowski, who may well crack the Astros rotation this year.
Villar remains in Houston, third on the depth chart at shortstop after an awful 2014.
The Astros have Villar and one-third of Wojo to show for dealing their stud.
December 2010: Kansas City trades Zack Greinke (and Yuniesky Betancourt) to Milwaukee for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.
Cain and Escobar are still with the Royals and both were a part of the Royals’ run to the World Series last season. Cain was the ALCS MVP and appears to be an emerging star.
Jeffress was traded for an insignificant amount of cash, lest he be lost on waivers, and Odorizzi was part of the trade that got the Royals James Shields and Wade Davis.
This is the best return of all the trades, the Royals have Cain, Escobar and a little piece of Davis left to show for Greinke.
The other three ace-for-prospects deals all involve Cliff Lee. The lefty was traded three times in the space of a year.
July 2009: Cleveland trades Lee to Philadelphia for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp and Lou Marson.
Marson gave the Indians five years as a back-up catcher before leaving as a free agent, over which he hit a less-than-inspiring .217/.308/.295, while Knapp left as a minor-league free agent without ever reaching the bigs. Carrasco had been the next big thing for five years, and finally had his first strong season with the tribe in 2014. Donald was an uninspiring part-timer for a couple of seasons in Cleveland, and was a throw-in in a three-team trade that saw the Indians also part with Shin-Soo Choo, Lars Anderson and Tony Sipp, and receive Matt Albers, Trevor Bauer, Bryan Shaw and Drew Stubbs.
Albers left as a free agent and Stubbs was traded for the popular “player to be named later or cash,” while Bauer and Shaw are still in Cleveland, but really Donald was just a minor piece tossed into the deal. He hasn’t resurfaced in the majors since.
Carrasco is the only thing Cleveland really has to show for trading Cliff Lee, and he seems to be becoming a very helpful piece.
December 2009: After losing the World Series and trading for Halladay, the Phillies turned around and traded Lee to Seattle for Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and J.C. Ramirez, arguing that they needed to restock their farm system.
Gillies and Ramirez amounted to a big bag of nothing in Philly — one was released, the other left as a minor-league free agent. Neither of them ever played in the majors for the Phils. Aumont continues to battle control issues and is out of options in Phillies camp this spring. The big righty has thrown a total of 39.2 major-league innings in his career, posting a 6.18 ERA.
Aside from the fact that two of the players they acquired were Canadian, the Phillies have nothing to show for this trade.
July 2010: Seattle trades Lee to Texas for Blake Beavan, Matt Lawson, Josh Leuke and Justin Smoak.
Beavan gave the Mariners 54 appearances of 4.61 ERA work, while Lawson and Leuke were both traded. Lawson was dealt for one-time Blue Jay Aaron Laffey, who made 36 appearances in Seattle before being lost on waivers. Leuke was sent to Tampa Bay for John Jaso, who was traded to Oakland for Michael Morse who was traded to Baltimore for Xavier Avery. Avery never played in the majors for the Mariners and left as a free agent.
Smoak, now vying for the first base job with the Blue Jays, was lost on waivers this past winter.
Seattle is left with absolutely nothing.
So eight ace-for-futures trades, including the Halladay deal, and what remains — outside the very lucrative Greinke deal — is basically Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco, Devon Travis, half of R.A. Dickey and a third of Asher Wojciechowski. It shows if nothing else, that trading for prospects is an incredibly inexact science, and that there are way more misses than hits.
The Blue Jays, with a rookie GM whose hands were tied by Halladay’s ability to pick his landing spot, wound up doing a lot better than most.