TORONTO – After months spent exploring the open market, Jose Bautista may be nearing a one-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays that includes a mutual option for 2018.
Nothing’s official at this point, so there’s no guarantee that the 36-year-old returns for a 10th season in Toronto. But if Bautista does end up back with the Blue Jays, the deal would have repercussions on many levels…
OUTFIELD, LINEUP TAKE SHAPE
After losing two of their starting outfielders to free agency to start the off-season, the Blue Jays pursued Dexter Fowler only to see him sign with the St. Louis Cardinals. The ensuing weeks have been quiet for the Toronto front office, but a deal with Bautista would address their biggest positional need and reinforce their lineup.
Though Bautista played in just 116 games last year, he hit 22 home runs while posting an on-base percentage of .349 or better for the eighth consecutive season. The ZiPS projection system at FanGraphs forecasts another productive season ahead: 27 home runs and an .868 OPS. Along those lines, one industry observer says it’s realistic to expect a .260 average with a high on-base percentage and 30-plus homers from Bautista.
Meanwhile, it didn’t take Michael Saunders long to find a new home once the Bautista rumours intensified. Saunders, who recently reiterated his interest in playing for the Blue Jays, reportedly has a deal with the Phillies.
PATIENCE PAYS OFF
The Blue Jays moved quickly to sign Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33-million deal that now looks overly aggressive. They were much more patient with Bautista, which created the possibility of a one-year deal.
As Justin Morneau said over the weekend, “it feels like teams have figured out a way to drive costs down” on sluggers such as Bautista. In this case that patience could pay off for the Blue Jays.
LOST PICK
Technically the Blue Jays don’t lose a pick if they keep Bautista. Realistically, the deal does cost them a draft choice in 2017, though. If another team had signed Bautista, the Blue Jays would have obtained an extra top pick in 2017, so by signing Bautista there’s a net loss of a top pick for Toronto.
In the short-term, that’s easy to overlook. After all, the 2017 Blue Jays should contend for the playoffs again. Long-term, however, those picks are valued at close to $10 million by some MLB teams.
UNEXPECTED DIRECTION
When the off-season began, the Blue Jays expressed interest in becoming younger, more athletic and more left-handed, all things being equal. So far their main additions include Morales, a 33-year-old switch hitter who doesn’t field or run particularly well and Steve Pearce, a 33-year-old right-handed hitter. Bautista, who’s now 36, also bats right-handed. All three are talented offensive players, but this isn’t the way the off-season was expected to unfold.
REMAINING QUESTIONS
Even if the Blue Jays complete a deal with Bautista, they’d have a number of holes remaining. Alongside clear needs for left-handed relief and a backup catcher, the Blue Jays might want to consider adding starting pitching depth and alternatives in left field, where Melvin Upton Jr. and Ezequiel Carrera now sit atop the depth chart.
How much money the Blue Jays have left to spend may also depend on how they structure a potential deal with Bautista. Mutual options are rarely exercised, but they allow teams to defer money and create payroll flexibility in the short-term.
