Nate Pearson is making things harder and harder on the Toronto Blue Jays each time he takes the mound, his predestined assignment to triple-A Buffalo at the end of spring training an increasingly charged lightning rod of controversy.
In this column, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith debate the path forward.
Shi Davidi: There is certainly a more than justifiable case for the laser-armed righty to break camp with the club, and when he repeatedly overwhelms big-league hitters, even in the fool’s gold of Grapefruit League play, the spectre of service-time manipulation rises anew.
Fairly or not, that’s largely how the conversation is going to be framed when he isn’t on the opening day roster, an uncomfortable fate the Blue Jays largely avoided with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette last spring.
Even though the players union weighed in the previous season and criticized the Blue Jays for not making Guerrero a September call-up, a left oblique strain suffered by the third baseman in March meant he wasn’t going to be ready for opening day. A broken hand for the shortstop in April interrupted his aggressive push up to the big-leagues.
Still, promotions for both players became hot-button topics, and the Blue Jays will be hard-pressed to convince their fan base that they’re doing the right thing for everyone involved, including the 23-year-old, by starting him out in the minors.
Ben, I’ve been hawkish on the service-time issue with the Blue Jays, arguing that Guerrero’s development was done a disservice by not bringing him up in September 2018, even viewing the unusual call-up of Anthony Alford that month through such a lens.
Each case is different though, and I don’t believe starting Pearson at Buffalo this year is a blatant move to push his free agency back a year. That may be the unfortunate by-product of the looming assignment, but there’s a reasonable, sensible developmental case here related to his relative lack of workload for the past two years.
Ben Nicholson-Smith: Right. It’s not like he has 20 triple-A starts to his name. At the same time, let’s start by acknowledging the obvious: Pearson can get major-league hitters out right now. His fastball is overpowering and his breaking balls are impressive, even if they’re not completely finished products. If the Blue Jays had one game to win, or one series, Pearson’s name would have to enter the discussion. Prospect or not, he’s that good. So while I know there are long-term factors worthy of consideration, it’s also important to recognize that in many ways he’s a major-league talent already.
Davidi: Major-league ability, to be sure, but he’s made throwing his curveball a priority this spring to develop it into yet another weapon, and he won’t be able to do that consistently with the Blue Jays. He can throw it repeatedly at Buffalo to refine the offering without being overly concerned about the game results. Adding that to his fastball, slider and changeup would make him even better for the kind of one-game playoff scenario you describe, but realistically, the Blue Jays aren’t there yet.
To me, the priority this year should be to get Pearson through the entire six months for the first time, so the Blue Jays can let the reins loose in 2021. If that’s the goal, and he has to start at triple-A for a month or two as a way for him to improve the curveball and manage his innings so he’s still pitching in September, then it’s not service-time manipulation. Guerrero wasn’t going to get anything from more time in the minors. He needed the majors to show him what he didn’t know. It’s a different story for Pearson.
Nicholson-Smith: Valid points, for sure. Developing the curve matters, and it’s easier to work on that pitch at triple-A than it would be against the Yankees and Red Sox.
At the same time, there’s not necessarily a clear beginning and end to a player’s development. Pitchers are never really finished products, especially when they’re data-driven like Pearson. Fellow Driveline attendee Trevor Bauer remade his slider after reaching the big-leagues. It wasn’t until after his fifth year in the majors that Kirby Yates started throwing the splitter that now makes him of the best relievers in baseball. Last summer, Yu Darvish learned a knuckle-curve in a week. So Pearson might not be a finished product, but in today’s game, who is?
Ultimately, I agree that it makes sense to let him develop the pitch at triple-A for a while. But it’s not like the Blue Jays should wait indefinitely if it’s not coming around after five or ten starts. After all, how long can anyone be expected to throw 100?
Davidi: You don’t have to sell me on the pitchers-have-only-so-many-bullets argument. Maybe Pearson is a durable, thunder-armed rarity like Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, but you have to account for the possibility he’s Kerry Wood or Mark Prior, too. That’s why he should be up by early to mid-May, at the latest. But I’m only on board with that if the goal is to do right by him long-term, and try to get him pitching through September by saving some innings early.
At the same time, let’s not take growth and development for granted, either. It’s possible, and necessary, but it’s clearly harder. Pearson is a unicorn and I have little doubt he’d be among the outliers able to do it. But the Blue Jays have a limited window to develop away from the big-league stage, and four-to-six weeks of that wouldn’t be a blatant service-time play.
Nicholson-Smith: Agreed. There’s real value in allowing him to develop where the spotlight’s not so bright – at least for a while. I like your early to mid-May suggestion. That’s more than a month at triple-A, and a chance to make five starts or more. Based on the work Pearson puts in behind the scenes, he could take big strides in that time. If not, his development can continue in the majors, just as Guerrero Jr.’s will.
Sounds like we’ve got it figured out, then! Within the next couple of months, we’ll know whether the Blue Jays view things similarly.
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