The Toronto Blue Jays still have plenty of work to do after adding starting catcher Russell Martin.
Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos continues seeking upgrades across the diamond at multiple positions, including second base, left field, and the bullpen.
Left field stands out as the most immediate concern, since incumbent starter Melky Cabrera remains unsigned on the free agent market and the Jays do not have a legitimate internal option to replace him. The two sides don’t appear to be close to a deal.
If the season started today (which would be strange considering it’s the end of November) the Blue Jays would rely on some combination of Andy Dirks, Kevin Pillar and John Mayberry Jr. in left. That’s hardly ideal for a team looking to make a playoff push in 2015.
One name that recently popped up on the rumour mill is Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce. Fox Sports reported that Blue Jays officials have discussed left-handed masher and Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun confirmed Wednesday that Toronto has inquired with the Reds about his availability.
Here’s the lowdown on the Reds’ power-hitting corner outfielder.
Name: Jay Bruce | Age: 27 (turns 28 in April)
Bats: Left
Position: Outfield
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 215 pounds
Drafted: 2005– 1st round (12th overall out of high school) by the Cincinnati Reds
2014 stats: 137 games, .217/.281/.373/.654, 21 doubles, 18 home runs, 66 RBI, 149 strikeouts, 44 walks.
Bruce makes a ton of sense for the Blue Jays on the surface. He could provide them with a needed left-handed bat in the lineup– a glaring issue with Anthony Gose, Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus no longer on the roster – and an everyday starter in the outfield.
Bruce also has experience in centre field, which would provide manager John Gibbons with roster flexibility. His power bat would also be a strong fit in the home run friendly Rogers Centre, as Bruce has exceeded the 30 home run mark in every season from 2011 to 2013.
Another benefit of Bruce is his team-friendly contract. He’s scheduled to make $12 million in 2015 and $12.5 million in 2016 and his contract includes a $13 million option in 2017 (buyout of $1 million). Considering the influx of cash in the baseball industry and the growing cost of free agents, it’s safe to say that contract would be pretty appealing to Anthopoulos.
But after that, it gets a bit more complicated for Toronto. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reported Tuesday that the Jays are among a handful of teams that appear on Bruce’s no trade list, plus the acquisition cost could be steep. Elliott wrote that the Reds are seeking “inexpensive major-league ready players.” So they could be seeking a young pitcher such as Drew Hutchison or Aaron Sanchez.
Also, there’s a reason Bruce’s name on the trade market. He is coming off a horrible season in which his numbers declined across the board. Even his defensive metrics dipped way down, and his -1.1 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2014 was a troubling sign. That’s a lower WAR than Rasmus finished with last season, though Bruce previously produced a cumulative WAR of 14 from 2010-2013.
In those four seasons, Bruce was a model of consistency, averaging 32 doubles, 30 home runs, 94 RBI, and an .826 OPS. But that power comes with huge strikeout numbers. He ranked in the top 20 in all of baseball in total strikeouts in every season since 2011, while his walk rate dropped in 2014 for the third year in a row.
(via Baseball Reference)
One possible explanation for the decrease in productivity was his health. He underwent knee surgery in May and his numbers radically declined when he returned from the injury. He still managed to play 137 games, but it was clear he wasn’t the same player. Before last season, Bruce had an exceptional track record in terms of health, as he appeared in 148 or more games for four straight seasons (2010-2013).
So the question becomes whether the lousy 2014 campaign was an outlier or a sign of things to come. That will be a huge determination for the Blue Jays if they move forward in pursuing the buy-low candidate.
